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Conditional Proabilities

Posted 01-24-2009 at 08:30 PM by rrbest
Updated 01-24-2009 at 08:39 PM by rrbest

TIA focused quite a bit of attention on tables in discrete probability but there weren't any tables used in conditional.

I believe using tables is going to be the fastest way for me to solve a problem with confidence, so I decided to construct a table to see how it would be used.

This actually makes it simple. No matter what kind of question you get you'll be able to fill in the blanks and solve the problem. In lesson two, I noticed all the problems had a least one...
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Old

TIA A.1.05 Solution

Posted 01-22-2009 at 04:47 PM by rrbest
Updated 01-23-2009 at 02:18 AM by rrbest

The TIA videos helped me solve this problem, but in the process I developed a method which I think is simplified. Here is the problem:

5. There are three major newspapers in the city of Crobizon: the Globe, the Herald, and the
Phoenix. The Phoenix is distributed freely, but the Globe and Herald cost money. On a recent
day, sales of the newspapers were as follows:

(i) 25% of people didnít read any newspaper
(ii) 25% of people read the Globe and 29%
...
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Old

TIA A.1.01 Solution

Posted 01-22-2009 at 04:28 PM by rrbest

1. [SOA #3, S í01 #12] You are given P[A [ B] = 0.7 and P[A [ B0] = 0.9.
Determine P[A].
(A) 0.2
(B) 0.3
(C) 0.4
(D) 0.6
(E) 0.8


The video solved it one way, and I solved it a different way. I got the right answer but my method seemed awfully fast so perhaps I will be developing bad habits and/or simply answered correctly by coincidence. Here was my solution.

In blue is the area described, in white is everything else....
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Old

Lesson 1 complete

Posted 01-21-2009 at 03:00 AM by rrbest
Updated 01-21-2009 at 03:04 AM by rrbest



Today I finished the first TIA lesson and did the practice problems. I scored a 7/10 for the practice problems.

There are certainly a lot of room for error in these problems, but theyre really fun to do. I was actually just about to type in the hardest problem because I couldn't figure out why the answer was .07 and not .10, as it turns out, I forgot to subtract the intersection of the two. This...
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Old

The first step

Posted 01-20-2009 at 04:29 AM by rrbest

Here's a comic for your enjoyment



I've officially taken the first step to pass the exams. I signed up the the infinite actuaries 1/P online seminar. I had checked out the samples before and they answers a lot of questions I had about specific questions, so I was sold.

It looks like there over 21 hours of video material, so I am excited about my purchase and have enjoyed watching...
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Views 5470 Comments 0 rrbest is offline

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