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-   -   Self Driving Autos (http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showthread.php?t=254628)

McUSA 01-22-2013 05:52 PM

Self Driving Autos
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_driverless_car

The technology is here, and it's working. It's probably already cost effective in large numbers - current cost of 150K will come way down.

So the bottom line is that is going to DECIMATE the P&C industry. Driverless cars don't crash. Comprehensive will be the only exposure left. How much premium is private passenger again?

I can already see the debate coming. Now, it is experimental. Then it will be optional. Finally it will be required.

The benefits to society will be enormous - just think of the ability to use mass transportation for easy point-to-point delivery.

Bicycle Repair Man 01-22-2013 06:08 PM

The lawyers are going to keep this technology from being widespread as fast as it should. When a human-driven car gets into an accident that kills someone, that's a bad thing. But the first time an AI-driven car gets into an accident and kills someone, it's going to be a multi-million dollar lawsuit.

TwoStep 01-22-2013 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bicycle Repair Man (Post 6594635)
The lawyers are going to keep this technology from being widespread as fast as it should. When a human-driven car gets into an accident that kills someone, that's a bad thing. But the first time an AI-driven car gets into an accident and kills someone, it's going to be a multi-million dollar lawsuit.

Agreed, look at the lobbying they did to keep tort reform out of ObamaCare.

McUSA 01-22-2013 06:19 PM

Yes, but they've gone 300,000 miles without an accident (that's not unusual, lots of drivers have driven 300,000 miles without an accident).

If this thing is demonstrably much safer and less lethal than manual driving, no lobbying will stop it long term.

McUSA 01-22-2013 06:21 PM

And maybe it will be a multi-million dollar lawsuit, but if the accident rate is similar to airplanes it is a quite manageable exposure.

DeepPurple 01-22-2013 06:42 PM

I think collisions will skyrocket if (and that's a BIG IF) this ever gets into the consumer market.


What is going to happen the first time a Google car kills someone? Google will pay millions and pull the plug on the concept.

McUSA 01-22-2013 07:00 PM

Yea, collisions will skyrocket - that's why Google has 12 cars driving around all the time which haven't been in an accident.

JasonScandopolous 01-22-2013 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TwoStep (Post 6594643)
Agreed, look at the lobbying they did to keep tort reform out of ObamaCare.

A few stray lawsuits may occur, but are you guys talking about a court injunction to cease use of driverless cars? That will never happen. First of all, the defendends would be some of the wealthiest corporations in the world (automakers, google). Second of all, regardless of how many accidents self-driving cars may cause that a human would not have caused, it is certain that they'll cause far less accidents overall; a court injunction would cause the deaths of thousands of people. Obviously faulty sensors leading to a car accident could be successfully fought against an automaker, but this would be like a run of the mill BI or CGL claim, not something that could stop the technology from being viable. Anyone who thinks this tech isn't coming, fast and to stay, is kidding themselves.

BTW, I voted "of course" on the poll, but auto insurance could still exist at a ~10th of its current size.

Buck 01-22-2013 08:02 PM

These things will have accidents -- better keep insurance alive.

McUSA 01-22-2013 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buck (Post 6594862)
These things will have accidents -- better keep insurance alive.

But the premiums will be MUCH lower - maybe 80% lower for comprehensive + small liability.


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