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-   -   Can actuaries help solve the opioid crisis? (http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showthread.php?t=323884)

lookingon1 07-11-2017 08:41 AM

There are of course none. He is just trying to sound semi intelligent (have you seen any of his work by any chance...)

You can find Bluhm's paper on the SOA syllabus through the 90's and 2000's up until he wrote a book around it (it was related to indiv insurance)-now in 2nd edition, and they got this new young guy-what has he done? survived phd in Madison but not clear what anyone from that group has really done.

Trust me if there is anything new it would appear on the syllabus. There have been rehashes on DM that amounted to very little (to be polite). Now lots of treatises on ACA. That's it in nutshell!

Hey, good news is it can change and the new generation have their new chance. I hear the millennials are so smart.

Stephen Camilli 07-11-2017 11:11 AM

I think that this thread is going off in a different direction than what I had intended. It certainly helps no one to talk about what actuaries did or did not do in the past, unless it is constructively seeking what to potentially do better in the future. I think there is a place for actuaries both individually and as a profession to be more proactive in trying to implement change. The opioid crisis is one such possibility. I certainly do not think that actuaries are the only professionals that can contribute to this; however, I think that actuaries could contribute a unique perspective, working together with other public health professionals.

We often talk of what "the profession" does, but ultimately, it depends mostly on what individual actuaries do. So, one purpose in posting this was to try and inspire action from actuaries who are in a position to contribute. I think that there are many ways that actuaries could contribute to solving this either through working together with existing research projects, coming up with new ideas about how to solve this problem, and then seeking to use this information to implement change. The last step is likely the hardest, and involves different "inexact" ways of trying to implement change, through writing letters, publishing articles, seeking to share the right information with the right people who can influence these processes.

As a couple resources that I found interesting:

Here is a for-profit program with Oliver Wyman: http://www.oliverwyman.com/our-exper...ng-wisely.html

that works to identify extreme outliers in practice. Perhaps something similar could be implemented for opioid prescriptions to identify abuse more quickly.

Here is a great Linked In post that I saw the other day about using actuarial science for social good in Malaysia: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/using...sb4z0bag%3D%3D

I would encourage anyone interested in getting involved in some way with this program to reach out to Rebecca Owen, the author of the article, and to the public health subgroup of the soa health section to see if there is some way of contributing.

bluecup129 07-11-2017 11:19 AM

Honest question- what percentage of people who abuse opioids do so via their own prescription as opposed to obtaining the drug via illicit methods? The first person represents someone I could track with my company-specific data. The second person I probably could not.

It would be like trying to determine if an individual is having unnecessary services performed by a doctor that they pay under the table.

There is potential for this at the provider level (i.e. calling to the carpet providers who systematically prescribe more or stronger doses of opioids than are warranted), but I'm only scratching the surface of the problem.

lookingon1 07-11-2017 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stephen Camilli (Post 9024150)
I think that this thread is going off in a different direction than what I had intended. It certainly helps no one to talk about what actuaries did or did not do in the past, unless it is constructively seeking what to potentially do better in the future. I think there is a place for actuaries both individually and as a profession to be more proactive in trying to implement change. The opioid crisis is one such possibility. I certainly do not think that actuaries are the only professionals that can contribute to this; however, I think that actuaries could contribute a unique perspective, working together with other public health professionals.

We often talk of what "the profession" does, but ultimately, it depends mostly on what individual actuaries do. So, one purpose in posting this was to try and inspire action from actuaries who are in a position to contribute. I think that there are many ways that actuaries could contribute to solving this either through working together with existing research projects, coming up with new ideas about how to solve this problem, and then seeking to use this information to implement change. The last step is likely the hardest, and involves different "inexact" ways of trying to implement change, through writing letters, publishing articles, seeking to share the right information with the right people who can influence these processes.

As a couple resources that I found interesting:

Here is a for-profit program with Oliver Wyman: http://www.oliverwyman.com/our-exper...ng-wisely.html

that works to identify extreme outliers in practice. Perhaps something similar could be implemented for opioid prescriptions to identify abuse more quickly.

Here is a great Linked In post that I saw the other day about using actuarial science for social good in Malaysia: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/using...sb4z0bag%3D%3D

I would encourage anyone interested in getting involved in some way with this program to reach out to Rebecca Owen, the author of the article, and to the public health subgroup of the soa health section to see if there is some way of contributing.

Great responses Stephen. Like the way you handled this and your responses. And I like the overall approach you are suggesting and I believe that this is the best way to make something happen in this field and move ahead. Great thoughts and thank you for sharing. Impressive really, hope others will read this important thread.

WhosOnFirst 07-12-2017 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stephen Camilli (Post 9024150)
I think that this thread is going off in a different direction than what I had intended. It certainly helps no one to talk about what actuaries did or did not do in the past, unless it is constructively seeking what to potentially do better in the future. I think there is a place for actuaries both individually and as a profession to be more proactive in trying to implement change. The opioid crisis is one such possibility. I certainly do not think that actuaries are the only professionals that can contribute to this; however, I think that actuaries could contribute a unique perspective, working together with other public health professionals.

We often talk of what "the profession" does, but ultimately, it depends mostly on what individual actuaries do. So, one purpose in posting this was to try and inspire action from actuaries who are in a position to contribute. I think that there are many ways that actuaries could contribute to solving this either through working together with existing research projects, coming up with new ideas about how to solve this problem, and then seeking to use this information to implement change. The last step is likely the hardest, and involves different "inexact" ways of trying to implement change, through writing letters, publishing articles, seeking to share the right information with the right people who can influence these processes.

As a couple resources that I found interesting:

Here is a for-profit program with Oliver Wyman: http://www.oliverwyman.com/our-exper...ng-wisely.html

that works to identify extreme outliers in practice. Perhaps something similar could be implemented for opioid prescriptions to identify abuse more quickly.

Here is a great Linked In post that I saw the other day about using actuarial science for social good in Malaysia: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/using...sb4z0bag%3D%3D

I would encourage anyone interested in getting involved in some way with this program to reach out to Rebecca Owen, the author of the article, and to the public health subgroup of the soa health section to see if there is some way of contributing.

I like your enthusiasm but actuaries have been trying to convince people for years about the problems with funding for social security to no avail. I find it unlikely that anyone would pay attention to the suggestions of actuaries for the much more complex problem of opioid addiction.

campbell 07-12-2017 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhosOnFirst (Post 9025666)
I like your enthusiasm but actuaries have been trying to convince people for years about the problems with funding for social security to no avail. I find it unlikely that anyone would pay attention to the suggestions of actuaries for the much more complex problem of opioid addiction.

This is a good point.

We've not had much in the way of "wins" as a professional group with regards to Social Security or public pensions.

It's great for us to support research/analysis that's relevant, but we need to think about being more effective in communication & persuasion.

It may be that opioid abuse may actually have solutions less controversial than SocSec or public pensions... but it may have similar problems in that the analysis/research produces very unwelcome solutions. We've not been very successful in such situations.

JMO 07-12-2017 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhosOnFirst (Post 9025666)
I like your enthusiasm but actuaries have been trying to convince people for years about the problems with funding for social security to no avail. I find it unlikely that anyone would pay attention to the suggestions of actuaries for the much more complex problem of opioid addiction.

:iatp:

Actually, it seemed to me that the article that inspired this thread was doing a task that is also much needed - raising awareness.

Sredni Vashtar 07-12-2017 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by campbell (Post 9025720)
We've not had much in the way of "wins" as a professional group with regards to Social Security or public pensions.

Same with healthcare. Every ACA thread is 99% about actuaries bemoaning the public understanding.

I think it would be neat if the AO organized a political arm-- like a subforum where we wrote letters to the editor and the like. I'm doubtful we could actually get away with much though. Presumably our Society, our employers, and our recruiters would all prefer silence over pot-stirring.

lookingon1 07-12-2017 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sredni Vashtar (Post 9025828)
Same with healthcare. Every ACA thread is 99% about actuaries bemoaning the public understanding.

I think it would be neat if the AO organized a political arm-- like a subforum where we wrote letters to the editor and the like. I'm doubtful we could actually get away with much though. Presumably our Society, our employers, and our recruiters would all prefer silence over pot-stirring.

Isnt' the MAAA involved with a lot of that? I'm sorry am not a member of MAAA but I know some things and seem that they are the group most suitable?

lookingon1 07-12-2017 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhosOnFirst (Post 9025666)
I like your enthusiasm but actuaries have been trying to convince people for years about the problems with funding for social security to no avail. I find it unlikely that anyone would pay attention to the suggestions of actuaries for the much more complex problem of opioid addiction.

What was the issue about social security? Sorry I'm not aware of this, would love to learn what happened. Would appreciate brief summary please...


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