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-   -   Can actuaries help solve the opioid crisis? (http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showthread.php?t=323884)

campbell 07-12-2017 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lookingon1 (Post 9027097)
What was the issue about social security? Sorry I'm not aware of this, would love to learn what happened. Would appreciate brief summary please...

Obviously this is not a brief summary, but read the first two items in this thread:
http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actu...d.php?t=228740

[and then read the rest of the thread... that's 6 years old and I'm just about to add more posts to]

Stephen Camilli 07-12-2017 07:30 PM

I think it is a bit different than social security and public pensions, in that the solution to those issues requires some kind of sacrifice, i.e. greater contributions, higher retirement age, lower benefit, etc. With the opioid crisis, there is currently a dearth of treatment centers and options. If analysis showed that investment in treatment options resulted in a greater decrease in costs to medicare/medicaid (a likely scenario based on most data, but without specific hard evidence to back up), a stronger political argument could be made for investment in treatment.

Similar economic analysis about the public costs of homeless people led to some states and cities offering free housing to high-risk individuals. See
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/09/22/home-free for one example. I can't recall where the original study about this came up, but it seems a similar economic argument could be made for certain solutions or remedies here. It is true that it seems like no-one is listening to us; however, delays, frustrations, etc., are the nature of trying to implement solutions that require political actions - they don't always follow a logical train of thought. Nevertheless, I still think that it is worthwhile, and that actuaries could do a lot to translate the desire to do something into specific action suggestions, with price tags and expected benefits attached to each action.

FormLetter 07-13-2017 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMO (Post 9022938)
Seems like too little to late. It the patient has already acted badly, why wouldn't they just rip open all the cells to get the dose they want??

Depends whether they want to deal with withdrawals or not. There is a reason they give a taper prescription.

JMO 07-14-2017 09:59 AM

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ame...ts-say-n782721
Senate Health Care Bill No Fix for Opioid Epidemic, Experts Say

lookingon1 07-14-2017 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMO (Post 9029403)
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ame...ts-say-n782721
Senate Health Care Bill No Fix for Opioid Epidemic, Experts Say

I think that's a given. They have much bigger problems with that bill...beside the opioid crisis. They need to figure out the basics still...

Fish Actuary 07-14-2017 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lookingon1 (Post 9023918)
Done?? Nothing is done, the problems are persisting. There is lots more room for analysis. Actuaries have so many opportunities to step in and solve these problems, before the others do.

The last real work by a health actuary, as far as I can see, was Bluhm's stuff---which was in the 1980's NOTHING has come since (which is still important analysis). The disease management was all blown air and didn't amount to anything. And the rest was conjectures about the ACA and our health system. But no real solutions.

I am saying we need someone to tackle the problems we have and devout actuarial talent on that. This OP's call is so important which is why I was shocked and amazed to see this today.

I kind of get the impression you're being a bit naive about the research that is being done on predicting/managing opioid addiction. Here's a link to all the research in Google Scholar that's been published since 2013 and pops up when you search for the "predicting opioid abuse" :link:

FormLetter 07-14-2017 09:11 PM

Predicting opioid use, some variable's I'd expect:
1) current prescription to an opiate/opioid
2) prior addiction to opiates/opioids
3) close proximity to other people use them
4) having prescribing privileges
5) having relationships with those under 4)

lookingon1 07-18-2017 12:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FormLetter (Post 9030786)
Predicting opioid use, some variable's I'd expect:
1) current prescription to an opiate/opioid
2) prior addiction to opiates/opioids
3) close proximity to other people use them
4) having prescribing privileges
5) having relationships with those under 4)

good start

lookingon1 07-18-2017 12:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fish Actuary (Post 9030642)
I kind of get the impression you're being a bit naive about the research that is being done on predicting/managing opioid addiction. Here's a link to all the research in Google Scholar that's been published since 2013 and pops up when you search for the "predicting opioid abuse" :link:

it's not me you have to show off and flex your muscles to, there are real problems and you have to find solutions or no one will notice you. So you should figure out a way to do it and if google search is what you think is going to help then start doing it. As you can see lots of poeple have already started doing work on this. Maybe follow example of formletter and find more variables to build on.

bluecup129 07-18-2017 03:44 PM

I'm just trying to set adequate 2018 premium rates for my employer :shrug:


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