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-   -   Can actuaries help solve the opioid crisis? (http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showthread.php?t=323884)

Locrian 07-19-2017 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by E. Blackadder (Post 9033686)
Why don't we start with actuaries solving the pension underfunding crisis? Do that, and then we can discuss other crises.

Because this is the Health & Disability forum, and it is a reasonable place to ask how actuaries can assist with health related public policy.

FormLetter 07-19-2017 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMO (Post 9029403)
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ame...ts-say-n782721
Senate Health Care Bill No Fix for Opioid Epidemic, Experts Say

Duh. Try to write some language for a bill that would be a fix for the so-called opioid epidemic.

Fish Actuary 07-19-2017 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lookingon1 (Post 9032966)
it's not me you have to show off and flex your muscles to, there are real problems and you have to find solutions or no one will notice you. So you should figure out a way to do it and if google search is what you think is going to help then start doing it. As you can see lots of poeple have already started doing work on this. Maybe follow example of formletter and find more variables to build on.

I wouldn't call pointing to the existing literature as showing off. From some of your other posts:

Quote:

Originally Posted by lookingon1 (Post 9023963)
There are of course none. He is just trying to sound semi intelligent (have you seen any of his work by any chance...)

You can find Bluhm's paper on the SOA syllabus through the 90's and 2000's up until he wrote a book around it (it was related to indiv insurance)-now in 2nd edition, and they got this new young guy-what has he done? survived phd in Madison but not clear what anyone from that group has really done.

Trust me if there is anything new it would appear on the syllabus. There have been rehashes on DM that amounted to very little (to be polite). Now lots of treatises on ACA. That's it in nutshell!

Hey, good news is it can change and the new generation have their new chance. I hear the millennials are so smart.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lookingon1 (Post 9023918)
Done?? Nothing is done, the problems are persisting. There is lots more room for analysis. Actuaries have so many opportunities to step in and solve these problems, before the others do.

The last real work by a health actuary, as far as I can see, was Bluhm's stuff---which was in the 1980's NOTHING has come since (which is still important analysis). The disease management was all blown air and didn't amount to anything. And the rest was conjectures about the ACA and our health system. But no real solutions.

I am saying we need someone to tackle the problems we have and devout actuarial talent on that. This OP's call is so important which is why I was shocked and amazed to see this today.

it appears that you don't think that there is any current serious work being done on predicting the factors affecting opioid addiction. I was simply pointing out that there is a lot of recent literature out there on the opioid crisis.

Also, yes, FormLetter pointed out a bunch of bunch of predictor variables, but I suspect that if you went looking through that existing literature you would find that many (all?) of those predictors have already been examined with some being found useful and some being not so useful. Before you start calling for actuaries to come in and try solve the problem you should review the existing literature and figure out where the gap is that the skills of an actuary would help to resolve that gap rather than trying to reinvent the wheel from scratch.

JMO 07-19-2017 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fish Actuary (Post 9035197)
Before you start calling for actuaries to come in and try solve the problem you should review the existing literature and figure out where the gap is that the skills of an actuary would help to resolve that gap rather than trying to reinvent the wheel from scratch.

Makes sense to me.

Also, anyone, regardless of technical expertise, can contribute to things like fund-raising and political action. You don't have to be an actuary for that.

lookingon1 07-21-2017 04:02 PM

Hey bro-I didn't create the thread...I think you got the wrong person. Once you clear that up I will answer more...but thanks for all the research you did on my posts!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fish Actuary (Post 9035197)
I wouldn't call pointing to the existing literature as showing off. From some of your other posts:





it appears that you don't think that there is any current serious work being done on predicting the factors affecting opioid addiction. I was simply pointing out that there is a lot of recent literature out there on the opioid crisis.

Also, yes, FormLetter pointed out a bunch of bunch of predictor variables, but I suspect that if you went looking through that existing literature you would find that many (all?) of those predictors have already been examined with some being found useful and some being not so useful. Before you start calling for actuaries to come in and try solve the problem you should review the existing literature and figure out where the gap is that the skills of an actuary would help to resolve that gap rather than trying to reinvent the wheel from scratch.


Locrian 07-21-2017 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fish Actuary (Post 9035197)
it appears that you don't think that there is any current serious work being done on. . .

You're giving them way too much credit. There isn't some logical rationale behind what you're quoting.

Fish Actuary 07-21-2017 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lookingon1 (Post 9037355)
Hey bro-I didn't create the thread...I think you got the wrong person. Once you clear that up I will answer more...but thanks for all the research you did on my posts!

lookingon1 was the person I was quoting...

Fish Actuary 07-21-2017 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Locrian (Post 9037497)
You're giving them way too much credit. There isn't some logical rationale behind what you're quoting.

???

lookingon1 07-21-2017 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fish Actuary (Post 9037572)
lookingon1 was the person I was quoting...

????

please figure out what you're trying to say you've confused everyone here now

lookingon1 07-21-2017 10:34 PM

it appears that you don't think that there is any current serious work being done on predicting the factors affecting opioid addiction. I was simply pointing out that there is a lot of recent literature out there on the opioid crisis.

Also, yes, FormLetter pointed out a bunch of bunch of predictor variables, but I suspect that if you went looking through that existing literature you would find that many (all?) of those predictors have already been examined with some being found useful and some being not so useful. Before you start calling for actuaries to come in and try solve the problem you should review the existing literature and figure out where the gap is that the skills of an actuary would help to resolve that gap rather than trying to reinvent the wheel from scratch.
===========================================

for sake of a sensible discussion, let me attempt to answer the above (even tho I'm not really into it now..).
a) as far as I can see your good scholar search was not exclusive to actuarial work. Go back and update your search to only actuarial. If you find results, then you have shown me (us..) that we are wrong. But...
b) the actuarial world is a small one. I, as well as many here, know pretty much all the work being done. Certainly if it was on something as high caliber as this subject. It would be pretty important and we would know. And it would be published at least in our acturial publications, with a nice pretty article in the Actuary (in lieu of the overview that was shared here). Let me save you the work-it's not there! But I like your attitude and maybe you can join in and help close the gap (or at least more formally identify it and let the actuarial community find a solution). I like your positive approach on this, it's certainly a good start. Ok, that was more than just b)...


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