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-   -   Spring 2019 LTAM Progress Thread (http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showthread.php?t=336596)

NotSmart 01-21-2019 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chappy (Post 9522746)
I'm getting confused as to what we have to derive from first principles for the beta distribution and what formulas we are allowed to use.

For example, question 5.12 ASM (13th edition maybe?) has a survival function of a beta distribution and gives you the force of mortality and the complete future life time. They ask you to calculate what the exponent of the beta distribution is.

In the solution, they use the fact that it is a beta distribution and skip right to r/(w-y) for force of morality and (w-y)/(r+1) for future life time. Are we allowed to use these formulas on the test? I thought I read somewhere that you need to derive all formulas for beta.

What happens on a test if you use a formula that isn't given but and you arrive at the right answer? For this question, it is much faster to use these formulas and if it is just a one point deduction then I think I would rather take that hit and continue on the test than to spend 5 minutes deriving the formulas.

The exam won't test for understanding beta distributions. I would just memorize.

NotSmart 01-21-2019 02:51 PM

Just an advice to people taking this exam: Understanding isn't as important as being able to memorize and recall the formulas in the formula sheets.

I would get comfortable with all the formulas first before trying to get a deep understanding of the material.

Chappy 01-21-2019 02:55 PM

S0(x) = (k^2 - x)^0.5/k

What is S30(x)?

I thought it was [(k^2 - x)/(k^2 - 30)]^0.5 but don't think this is correct.
Is it [(k^2 - x - 30)/(k^2 - 30)]^0.5?

NotSmart 01-21-2019 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chappy (Post 9522829)
S0(x) = (k^2 - x)^0.5/k

What is S30(x)?

I thought it was [(k^2 - x)/(k^2 - 30)]^0.5 but don't think this is correct.
Is it [(k^2 - x - 30)/(k^2 - 30)]^0.5?

Express S30(x) using S0(30 + x) and S0(30)

Future lifetime of a newborn is 30 + x, not x, so your 2nd expression is correct.

NotSmart 01-21-2019 02:59 PM

Again, I highly recommend you just memorize the formulas instead of trying to understand them.

Almost everyone I know who has problems with this exam tried to understand concepts when they should have been memorizing formulas.

NotSmart 01-21-2019 03:31 PM

The University of Michigan is known for having a strong math department.

You should crush this exam easily. I have a 470 SAT Math score, and I crushed this exam.

Colymbosathon ecplecticos 01-21-2019 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NotSmart (Post 9522868)
The University of Michigan is known for having a strong math department.

You should crush this exam easily. I have a 470 SAT Math score, and I crushed this exam.


Your math degree is from Capital Community College, right? That's what your profile indicates. Just curious.

NotSmart 01-21-2019 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Colymbosathon ecplecticos (Post 9523001)
Your math degree is from Capital Community College, right? That's what your profile indicates. Just curious.

?
Where does it say that?

Gandalf 01-21-2019 08:29 PM

Your profile says your college is Capital Community College. It does not say you got a math degree. Is it wrong?

NotSmart 01-21-2019 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gandalf (Post 9523032)
Your profile says your college is Capital Community College. It does not say you got a math degree. Is it wrong?

I did not major in math. I got my Associate's in General Studies.
I'm not sure where he got the idea I majored in Math.


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