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Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing Yesterday, 03:02 PM
Replies: 2,848
Views: 328,604
Posted By d123454321
It's the hardest easy money there is.

It's the hardest easy money there is.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing Yesterday, 02:45 PM
Replies: 2,848
Views: 328,604
Posted By d123454321
Positive or negative $100?

Positive or negative $100?
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing Yesterday, 07:42 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 319
Posted By d123454321
A lot of funds make trades based on the close....

A lot of funds make trades based on the close. Since over time more money flows into stocks there's buy orders for the close that are likely hedged after hours with futures. This may explain some of...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-28-2020, 02:47 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 1,744
Posted By d123454321
Monetary measures may be more important. Fed has...

Monetary measures may be more important. Fed has been buying around 100B a WEEK of bonds. In late March they did 586B in 1 week. That was almost as much as the entire QE2 in 1 week sitting
...
Forum: Careers - Employment 05-23-2020, 12:26 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 867
Posted By d123454321
One rationale is many exams have a lag between...

One rationale is many exams have a lag between when you take it and actually passed and when you find out you passed. Assuming a 2 month average lag then a bonus equal to 1/6 of the salary raise...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-21-2020, 10:23 AM
Replies: 2,848
Views: 328,604
Posted By d123454321
Yes thats good point. They extended it to free...

Yes thats good point. They extended it to free lancers, but still some workers left out.

The fiscal policy won't be coherent for sure. One party doesn't want any additional aid past July which...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-21-2020, 10:07 AM
Replies: 2,848
Views: 328,604
Posted By d123454321
If anything BBBs should get upgraded if we know...

If anything BBBs should get upgraded if we know they can always access credit from the Fed. Seriously that is an absolutely massive credit positive (and moral hazard).
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-21-2020, 10:02 AM
Replies: 2,848
Views: 328,604
Posted By d123454321
Perhaps as irrational as cutting of enhanced UE...

Perhaps as irrational as cutting of enhanced UE benefits in a depression like unemployment situation is paying 68% of unemployed persons more than they made. A good way to prevent businesses from...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-20-2020, 01:43 PM
Replies: 2,848
Views: 328,604
Posted By d123454321
Perhaps. But in order to have lower returns the...

Perhaps. But in order to have lower returns the S&P valuation would need to rise. Forward PE has risen with forward earnings tanking 20% while S&P is only down 13% from the high. But this may be...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-19-2020, 04:15 PM
Replies: 2,848
Views: 328,604
Posted By d123454321
Market Cap to GDP is a questionable metric to...

Market Cap to GDP is a questionable metric to use. Its comparing market cap of US stocks which get nearly half their profits overseas to US only GDP.

The ratio will always rise over time as it has...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-19-2020, 01:10 PM
Replies: 2,848
Views: 328,604
Posted By d123454321
Also for stocks, the S&P is heavily skewed to big...

Also for stocks, the S&P is heavily skewed to big tech which isn't as impacted. AMZN is actually helped by this. Mid cap index is well off the highs still, s&p 400 is 21% off its high still. Mid...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-19-2020, 01:04 PM
Replies: 2,848
Views: 328,604
Posted By d123454321
35% drop in GDP is seasonally adjusted annualized...

35% drop in GDP is seasonally adjusted annualized rate

So it is 1- (1- 0.35) ^0.25 which is a 10.2% drop in the run rate of GDP.

Many are scared of the 35% figure when it is really 10.2%...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-19-2020, 12:58 PM
Replies: 2,848
Views: 328,604
Posted By d123454321
Several items There is high unemployment but...

Several items

There is high unemployment but it mostly temporary. Studies and polls have about 2/3s of the unemployed saying they have a job when lock-down is lifted.

Of the 33M unemployed...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-01-2020, 07:54 AM
Replies: 2,848
Views: 328,604
Posted By d123454321
Or...that the Market is valued in discounted...

Or...that the Market is valued in discounted futures earnings. Say it takes until 2023 to get back to peak earnings and the EPS trend is permanently lowered 10% from COVID because we lost a year or...
Forum: Pension - Social Security 04-18-2020, 10:47 AM
Replies: 421
Views: 23,144
Posted By d123454321
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/business/dealbo...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/business/dealbook/illinois-pension-coronavirus.html

Illinois asking federal government for pension bailout.

How is any of this unexpected?

Most funds are...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 04-08-2020, 02:38 PM
Replies: 2,848
Views: 328,604
Posted By d123454321
I also expected another retest or down leg. But...

I also expected another retest or down leg. But since so many are bearish here's bulls advocate (devil's advocate).

The 2020 earnings will be dinged badly and 2021. But market knows it will...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-05-2020, 12:44 PM
Replies: 8,515
Views: 670,749
Posted By d123454321
If there really is 15% infected in Spain then...

If there really is 15% infected in Spain then going full lockdown to halt new cases may be bad policy. May be better off making R value close to 1 so the number of infections keep sustaining...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-05-2020, 12:39 PM
Replies: 8,515
Views: 670,749
Posted By d123454321
Imperial College paper suggests the actual UK...

Imperial College paper suggests the actual UK cases may be 100x or more greater than reported....
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-05-2020, 11:11 AM
Replies: 8,515
Views: 670,749
Posted By d123454321
Found it here ...

Found it here

https://www.sanmiguelcountyco.gov/590/Coronavirus

COVID-19 BLOOD TEST RESULTS (first round)
986 tests were done on March 26th and 27th
8 were positive
23 were indeterminate...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-05-2020, 10:56 AM
Replies: 8,515
Views: 670,749
Posted By d123454321
It said less than 1% positive. If we did...

It said less than 1% positive.

If we did assume it was 1% including indeterminate then it's interesting because official CO infection rate is around 0.08%. And that is probably skewed high from...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-04-2020, 10:37 PM
Replies: 8,515
Views: 670,749
Posted By d123454321
There's response that it may have been a biased...

There's response that it may have been a biased sample of people who were mildly sick and wouldn't get tested unless they tried to give blood.
...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-04-2020, 10:16 PM
Replies: 8,515
Views: 670,749
Posted By d123454321
Wow very interesting!

Wow very interesting!
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-04-2020, 07:53 PM
Replies: 8,515
Views: 670,749
Posted By d123454321
Very interesting. Source?

Very interesting. Source?
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-04-2020, 07:50 PM
Replies: 8,515
Views: 670,749
Posted By d123454321
Theres serious critical comments about the 80%...

Theres serious critical comments about the 80% ..its 80% are asymptomatic when tested but not at ultimate. Doesn't account for IBNR of developing symptoms.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-29-2020, 10:13 AM
Replies: 8,515
Views: 670,749
Posted By d123454321
US figures overall are starkly different from US...

US figures overall are starkly different from US excluding NY.
Showing results 1 to 25 of 300

 

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