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Search: Posts Made By: ARodOmaha
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-20-2018, 12:59 PM
Replies: 95
Views: 18,360
Posted By ARodOmaha
I'm not sure how "useful" the RMD file was. ...

I'm not sure how "useful" the RMD file was. Personally, I would have much preferred an empty document since I would know how to address the model. Instead, they added three components that you...
Forum: Statistics for Risk Modeling 12-17-2018, 06:02 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 2,163
Posted By ARodOmaha
I have a printed copy of the Actex SRM manual. ...

I have a printed copy of the Actex SRM manual. $200 OBO. Private message me.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-17-2018, 04:26 PM
Replies: 670
Views: 129,838
Posted By ARodOmaha
Should be: "Maybe Beryl is trying to 420 you...

Should be: "Maybe Beryl is trying to 420 you out."

If you use a number, the Feds will never figure it out.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-17-2018, 01:41 PM
Replies: 670
Views: 129,838
Posted By ARodOmaha
That's right, it was Hawaii. (Sorry for those...

That's right, it was Hawaii. (Sorry for those who are upset about disclosing exam material.)

I recall the flight to Hawaii takes at least 4 hours. So if you add the amount of time Beryl spent...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-17-2018, 11:14 AM
Replies: 670
Views: 129,838
Posted By ARodOmaha
Beryl sounds right. Personally, I think Beryl...

Beryl sounds right. Personally, I think Beryl should be reprimanded for leaving all of a sudden; it seemed that he (she?) intentionally made stuff up. Who spends an hour typing up a letter about...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-13-2018, 08:50 PM
Replies: 670
Views: 129,838
Posted By ARodOmaha
Here's my question: does the best model have the...

Here's my question: does the best model have the minimum loglikelihood or maximum loglikelihood? Yes, I passed Exam C but I'm completely blanking out.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-12-2018, 01:42 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 697
Posted By ARodOmaha
Actually, no. I just redid this entire project...

Actually, no. I just redid this entire project to get ready for the exam. What you'll want to do is run tree.full2, and not rpart.plot(tree.full2). This will give you specific values, such as...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-12-2018, 01:22 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 755
Posted By ARodOmaha
Here's what I would like to know: why are we...

Here's what I would like to know: why are we starting a second thread where all of this has been asked and answered?

www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showthread.php?t=336093
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-11-2018, 03:51 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 920
Posted By ARodOmaha
I know for the Student Success project, they use...

I know for the Student Success project, they use 50% as the cutoff in their probability, forcing an observation to either go to 1 or 0. The original dataset had about 64% passing, so if the model...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-10-2018, 03:27 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 1,241
Posted By ARodOmaha
If you watch the video, you can see there are...

If you watch the video, you can see there are Reference Materials with mentions about the PDF's (at the 6 minute mark, for instance.)
...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-08-2018, 09:18 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 3,021
Posted By ARodOmaha
Lightbulb Poll on Pass Rate

Now that we've all seen the PA modules and sample projects, I am curious as to your guess on the pass rate for the exam. Will it stay the same as other exams (40-50%), or will it be closer to 75%?
...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-08-2018, 08:48 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 189
Posted By ARodOmaha
http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussi...

http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showthread.php?t=335137&page=16
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-07-2018, 12:28 PM
Replies: 86
Views: 5,763
Posted By ARodOmaha
Let's say you have two points on a graph, call...

Let's say you have two points on a graph, call them the training set. You draw a line perfectly through these points, and call this line the random forest. Add two more random points, call them the...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-06-2018, 11:14 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 373
Posted By ARodOmaha
Unless you are an expert in whatever data they...

Unless you are an expert in whatever data they give, I only foresee using weights in the GLM if there's something obvious like exposure months.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-06-2018, 02:49 PM
Replies: 86
Views: 5,763
Posted By ARodOmaha
(1) Try Google (2) Oftentimes the mistake is...

(1) Try Google (2) Oftentimes the mistake is from not ensuring the two classes are the same. Be sure to use as.factor() around your predictions.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-06-2018, 11:31 AM
Replies: 670
Views: 129,838
Posted By ARodOmaha
I was also wondering that. I think we'll just...

I was also wondering that. I think we'll just have to highlight, copy, and paste into Word and then format from there. Might take several minutes but it should help give brownie points.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-06-2018, 11:30 AM
Replies: 670
Views: 129,838
Posted By ARodOmaha
My lazy method has been to use predict and then...

My lazy method has been to use predict and then view the results. The defaults are usually what I want; if not, then I change the class.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-04-2018, 02:05 PM
Replies: 670
Views: 129,838
Posted By ARodOmaha
I didn't ask that, but I don't think there's any...

I didn't ask that, but I don't think there's any chance of that happening. The Prometric instructions show a PDF with the sample report. I don't think they'd ever want a chance of the question...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-04-2018, 11:20 AM
Replies: 670
Views: 129,838
Posted By ARodOmaha
Update: I called Prometric, and the person told...

Update: I called Prometric, and the person told me that we will be provided 26 sheets of paper with pencils during the exam.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-03-2018, 02:27 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 1,241
Posted By ARodOmaha
I think you can attach files multiple times, just...

I think you can attach files multiple times, just delete them and re-upload, without hitting submit. So for each of the 60/30/10 minute reminders you could attach the current files for safe-keeping.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-03-2018, 11:03 AM
Replies: 15
Views: 1,241
Posted By ARodOmaha
The directions don't say anything about including...

The directions don't say anything about including our candidate number, so I'm assuming the system automatically links our files to our candidate number.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 11-30-2018, 02:07 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 427
Posted By ARodOmaha
If you follow all of the bullet points in the...

If you follow all of the bullet points in the grading rubric, there's not a lot of room for graders to take off for "incorrect" parameters and choices. In the Model Selection and Construction...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 11-28-2018, 12:29 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 801
Posted By ARodOmaha
Another metric is AIC, which is given in the...

Another metric is AIC, which is given in the summary of the GLM. Use the model with the lowest AIC.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 11-23-2018, 09:35 PM
Replies: 670
Views: 129,838
Posted By ARodOmaha
Thought for the day: do you think there will be...

Thought for the day: do you think there will be a method of how to save the files with our identifier number or name? In MLC we have to spend a chunk of time putting our number on the papers so...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 11-23-2018, 09:30 PM
Replies: 670
Views: 129,838
Posted By ARodOmaha
There is a separate thread on this slide; the...

There is a separate thread on this slide; the consensus is that it's wrong.
Showing results 1 to 25 of 188

 

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