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Search: Posts Made By: undergrad01
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 01-30-2016, 10:32 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 1,201
Posted By undergrad01
Does anyone want to at least stop by and say hi? ...

Does anyone want to at least stop by and say hi? :) LOL My thread is so lonely.
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 01-29-2016, 06:42 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 1,835
Posted By undergrad01
Well if you look at it this way: spending just an...

Well if you look at it this way: spending just an hour cutting them up means you've got flash cards for the next 3 months. Just spend a little bit less time looking at pr0n everyday during the week...
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 01-26-2016, 08:14 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 1,201
Posted By undergrad01
Parallelogram Method - Uneven Writings

Spring 2015 Exam 5 - Question 5

CY14 EP = 1000
Suppose a rate change of 1.1 occurs on 7/1/14.
30% of policies are written in Q3 every year.
10% of policies are written in Q4 every year...
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 09-19-2015, 08:43 PM
Replies: 43
Views: 9,665
Posted By undergrad01
*Waiting for someone to use the product*

*Waiting for someone to use the product*
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 09-07-2015, 10:30 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 827
Posted By undergrad01
Okie doke. Reported!

Okie doke. Reported!
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 09-07-2015, 10:05 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 827
Posted By undergrad01
On an unrelated note, i found an error in the...

On an unrelated note, i found an error in the official Friedland text at the bottom of page 417 (the simplified generalized approach), yippee!!

It shows a formula for indicated unpaid ULAE that is...
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 09-07-2015, 09:04 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 827
Posted By undergrad01
Also Are these formulas right...? Not sure ...

Also
Are these formulas right...? Not sure

Ultimate Reported Claims to Date = Ultimate Claims to Date - Pure IBNR
= Total Paid + Total Case + Total IBNER

CY Ultimate Reported Claims =...
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 09-06-2015, 08:02 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 827
Posted By undergrad01
Conger and Nolibos - CY Ultimate Reported Claims

In the Conger and Nolibos paper,

"The ultimate cost of claims reported in the calendar year...can be expressed exactly as the sum of the corresponding accident year ultimate and the pure IBNR at...
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 09-06-2015, 06:33 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 1,183
Posted By undergrad01
So for Kittle problems, CY incurred claims...

So for Kittle problems, CY incurred claims include the change in IBNR, but for all other problems, CY incurred claims are just = change in paid + change in case ?
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 09-05-2015, 09:11 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 1,183
Posted By undergrad01
Huh? Incurred = reported = case + paid usually

Huh? Incurred = reported = case + paid usually
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 09-04-2015, 08:12 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 1,183
Posted By undergrad01
Kittle Refinement

Is the denominator of the selected ULAE ratio based on .5(paid claims + ultimate claims) or .5(paid claims + incurred claims)?

At the bottom of page 392 in the source material, it's stated that...
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 09-04-2015, 12:30 AM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,804
Posted By undergrad01
We were never talking about ADAPT as a whole. My...

We were never talking about ADAPT as a whole. My comment was referring to Adapt's future Exam 5 content. I feel like this is a boxing match and I'm rooting for the underdog. Oh well. It would...
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 09-03-2015, 10:49 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,804
Posted By undergrad01
Hmmmm I hope not !!!!!!! If the product is not...

Hmmmm I hope not !!!!!!!
If the product is not of value, then I would think it wouldn't be a money maker in the long term. It won't sell well if it's reputation sucks, and it's reputation will suck...
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 09-03-2015, 09:04 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,804
Posted By undergrad01
Well one would hope that the ADAPT creators...

Well one would hope that the ADAPT creators aren't idiots and are coming up with a product that will be of value ...
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 09-03-2015, 09:01 AM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,804
Posted By undergrad01
I think Coaching Actuaries can still be of...

I think Coaching Actuaries can still be of tremendous value as a supplement. There's loads of problems that require numerical answers. Duh.
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 09-01-2015, 08:59 AM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,804
Posted By undergrad01
You guys are such kill joys. I can't wait to...

You guys are such kill joys. I can't wait to have an earned level again.
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 08-31-2015, 07:21 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,804
Posted By undergrad01
OMG EXAM 5 IS COMING TO ADAPT!

SO. PUMPED. September 15th can't come any sooner.
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 07-03-2015, 11:25 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 1,608
Posted By undergrad01
YOU HIT THE NAIL ON THE HEAD. I have a...

YOU HIT THE NAIL ON THE HEAD. I have a perfectionist mentality which RUINS me. I'm not going to say how long I've been thinking about credibility. It's BEYOND ridiculous.
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 07-03-2015, 10:14 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 1,608
Posted By undergrad01
When the observed experience is within some...

When the observed experience is within some arbitrary amount "k" of the expected experience.
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 07-03-2015, 09:26 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 1,608
Posted By undergrad01
DARNIT. I still don't understand how your...

DARNIT. I still don't understand how your answers exactly answer my question. And I pretty much asked the same thing twice but used different words.

I was thinking the logic would be as...
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 07-01-2015, 09:36 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 1,608
Posted By undergrad01
Credibility

Why is the observed experience more credible when it has a higher likelihood of being close to expected experience? Why does having this high likelihood increase the predictive power of observed...
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 05-09-2015, 09:59 PM
Replies: 1,825
Views: 170,758
Posted By undergrad01
I can see a new commercial in the making... I'm...

I can see a new commercial in the making... I'm imagining an elderly gentlemen with a deep, wholesome voice reading this.
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 04-11-2015, 04:56 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 1,728
Posted By undergrad01
Yeah. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it is my...

Yeah. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it is my understanding that the overall weighted avg indicated relativity based on the base class is usually different from the overall weighted avg current...
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 04-11-2015, 04:46 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 1,728
Posted By undergrad01
Overall weighted avg indicated relativity (based...

Overall weighted avg indicated relativity (based on total L&ALAE ratio, not the base relativity) =
The values in column 3 in your spreadsheet x (Indicated relativities based on the total ratio) ...
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 04-11-2015, 04:31 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 1,728
Posted By undergrad01
What are you trying to do LifeIsaPoisson? ...

What are you trying to do LifeIsaPoisson?

When I was talking about how the indicated overall avg relativity equals the current overall avg relativity, I was referring to the indicated relativities...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 300

 

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