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Search: Posts Made By: ARodOmaha
Forum: Modules 1-5 05-31-2019, 10:42 AM
Replies: 5,611
Views: 2,144,165
Posted By ARodOmaha
Submitted IA 4/27/2019. MMR 5/31/2019 (34 days).

Submitted IA 4/27/2019. MMR 5/31/2019 (34 days).
Forum: Financial Mathematics 04-25-2019, 08:06 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 415
Posted By ARodOmaha
Modified Duration From Mid-Year Payments

I have a quick question for FM people. I have a series of payments that I am assuming are being paid mid year, i.e. t = 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, ..., 49.5. I've calculated the Macaulay duration using an...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 04-01-2019, 11:11 AM
Replies: 495
Views: 73,535
Posted By ARodOmaha
Congrats on the pending baby (RBNP, right?) ...

Congrats on the pending baby (RBNP, right?)

I'm working on FAP now and expect to be done in a few months. I'll be joining you guys for the Group & Health exam May 2020.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 03-20-2019, 10:26 AM
Replies: 495
Views: 73,535
Posted By ARodOmaha
The December exam solution is up: ...

The December exam solution is up:

https://www.soa.org/Education/Exam-Req/Syllabus-Study-Materials/edu-multiple-choice-exam.aspx

Reading the solution is frustrating, even though I passed. They...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 03-08-2019, 10:12 AM
Replies: 27
Views: 7,102
Posted By ARodOmaha
It looks like 50.3% is the passing rate. Way...

It looks like 50.3% is the passing rate. Way lower than I expected.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 03-04-2019, 01:34 PM
Replies: 495
Views: 73,535
Posted By ARodOmaha
Somehow got a 9. After the exam I discussed it...

Somehow got a 9. After the exam I discussed it with a coworker, and I thought she had better ideas than me such as removing states from the model. I also ran out of time so my report wasn't very...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 03-01-2019, 10:07 AM
Replies: 495
Views: 73,535
Posted By ARodOmaha
Congrats!

Congrats!
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 03-01-2019, 10:06 AM
Replies: 495
Views: 73,535
Posted By ARodOmaha
I passed!!! Time to update my signature.

I passed!!!

Time to update my signature.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 02-28-2019, 10:25 AM
Replies: 495
Views: 73,535
Posted By ARodOmaha
My predictive model said I passed. So I'm...

My predictive model said I passed. So I'm starting to celebrate today.

:wav:
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 02-28-2019, 10:23 AM
Replies: 697
Views: 159,410
Posted By ARodOmaha
Actually, they make more packages available on...

Actually, they make more packages available on your computer than they list in the syllabus. I had to scroll through the long list to find the ones they said we'd be given.
Forum: Modules 1-5 02-20-2019, 09:17 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 6,372
Posted By ARodOmaha
So apparently I DNMMR'd for EOM1. I got a vague...

So apparently I DNMMR'd for EOM1. I got a vague email about trying again and to not plagiarize. I had spent about 15 hours completing the exercise and included a lot of detail and tried to explain...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-20-2018, 11:59 AM
Replies: 95
Views: 22,998
Posted By ARodOmaha
I'm not sure how "useful" the RMD file was. ...

I'm not sure how "useful" the RMD file was. Personally, I would have much preferred an empty document since I would know how to address the model. Instead, they added three components that you...
Forum: Statistics for Risk Modeling 12-17-2018, 05:02 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 3,101
Posted By ARodOmaha
I have a printed copy of the Actex SRM manual. ...

I have a printed copy of the Actex SRM manual. $200 OBO. Private message me.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-17-2018, 03:26 PM
Replies: 697
Views: 159,410
Posted By ARodOmaha
Should be: "Maybe Beryl is trying to 420 you...

Should be: "Maybe Beryl is trying to 420 you out."

If you use a number, the Feds will never figure it out.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-17-2018, 12:41 PM
Replies: 697
Views: 159,410
Posted By ARodOmaha
That's right, it was Hawaii. (Sorry for those...

That's right, it was Hawaii. (Sorry for those who are upset about disclosing exam material.)

I recall the flight to Hawaii takes at least 4 hours. So if you add the amount of time Beryl spent...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-17-2018, 10:14 AM
Replies: 697
Views: 159,410
Posted By ARodOmaha
Beryl sounds right. Personally, I think Beryl...

Beryl sounds right. Personally, I think Beryl should be reprimanded for leaving all of a sudden; it seemed that he (she?) intentionally made stuff up. Who spends an hour typing up a letter about...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-13-2018, 07:50 PM
Replies: 697
Views: 159,410
Posted By ARodOmaha
Here's my question: does the best model have the...

Here's my question: does the best model have the minimum loglikelihood or maximum loglikelihood? Yes, I passed Exam C but I'm completely blanking out.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-12-2018, 12:42 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 1,627
Posted By ARodOmaha
Actually, no. I just redid this entire project...

Actually, no. I just redid this entire project to get ready for the exam. What you'll want to do is run tree.full2, and not rpart.plot(tree.full2). This will give you specific values, such as...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-12-2018, 12:22 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 1,152
Posted By ARodOmaha
Here's what I would like to know: why are we...

Here's what I would like to know: why are we starting a second thread where all of this has been asked and answered?

www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showthread.php?t=336093
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-11-2018, 02:51 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 1,284
Posted By ARodOmaha
I know for the Student Success project, they use...

I know for the Student Success project, they use 50% as the cutoff in their probability, forcing an observation to either go to 1 or 0. The original dataset had about 64% passing, so if the model...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-10-2018, 02:27 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 1,484
Posted By ARodOmaha
If you watch the video, you can see there are...

If you watch the video, you can see there are Reference Materials with mentions about the PDF's (at the 6 minute mark, for instance.)
...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-08-2018, 08:18 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 7,102
Posted By ARodOmaha
Lightbulb Poll on Pass Rate

Now that we've all seen the PA modules and sample projects, I am curious as to your guess on the pass rate for the exam. Will it stay the same as other exams (40-50%), or will it be closer to 75%?
...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-08-2018, 07:48 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 260
Posted By ARodOmaha
http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussi...

http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showthread.php?t=335137&page=16
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-07-2018, 11:28 AM
Replies: 90
Views: 8,211
Posted By ARodOmaha
Let's say you have two points on a graph, call...

Let's say you have two points on a graph, call them the training set. You draw a line perfectly through these points, and call this line the random forest. Add two more random points, call them the...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-06-2018, 10:14 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 514
Posted By ARodOmaha
Unless you are an expert in whatever data they...

Unless you are an expert in whatever data they give, I only foresee using weights in the GLM if there's something obvious like exposure months.
Showing results 1 to 25 of 199

 

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