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Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics Today, 11:49 AM
Replies: 1,343
Views: 95,430
Posted By ElDucky
http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussi...

http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/picture.php?albumid=418&pictureid=3136

Very tasty. Didn't have time for it to get to 190-200 as suggested, got to 180 or so.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics Yesterday, 07:13 PM
Replies: 1,343
Views: 95,430
Posted By ElDucky
Learned two things. 1. Using hot water in the...

Learned two things.
1. Using hot water in the water pan is probably a good idea if you don't want to spend an hour or two to get to the temperature you want.
2. If you leave the chimney starter...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-28-2020, 02:44 PM
Replies: 1,267
Views: 102,993
Posted By ElDucky
That tends to be what I find. I really like...

That tends to be what I find. I really like Glenfiddich 15, and it's only $50. There's only one crazy bottle I thought was worth it at $500.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-28-2020, 01:43 PM
Replies: 8,574
Views: 677,549
Posted By ElDucky
Depends where you live I guess. My quarantine...

Depends where you live I guess. My quarantine involves a lot of trips to Home Depot.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-28-2020, 01:42 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 1,767
Posted By ElDucky
There's still a lot of 2020 to go.

There's still a lot of 2020 to go.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-28-2020, 01:39 PM
Replies: 1,267
Views: 102,993
Posted By ElDucky
Contemplating a bottle of Yamazaki 18, but it's...

Contemplating a bottle of Yamazaki 18, but it's pricey.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-28-2020, 01:35 PM
Replies: 2,856
Views: 329,883
Posted By ElDucky
If oil hits $100 again I should be able to retire.

If oil hits $100 again I should be able to retire.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-26-2020, 01:16 PM
Replies: 2,856
Views: 329,883
Posted By ElDucky
Dow above 25,000 and SP 3000, they just wanted to...

Dow above 25,000 and SP 3000, they just wanted to make sure to coordinate for the party.

Trump makes his annual Dow above 25,000 tweet.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-26-2020, 11:17 AM
Replies: 79
Views: 5,209
Posted By ElDucky
I got it, it's just really stupid censoring. In a...

I got it, it's just really stupid censoring. In a movie with murder and rape, can't say the word shit.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-26-2020, 11:14 AM
Replies: 8,574
Views: 677,549
Posted By ElDucky
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.23...

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.23.20111427v1.article-info

In short, a population that is expected to have been fully exposed showed 50% IgG antibodies, suggesting up to half of...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-22-2020, 05:30 PM
Replies: 1,343
Views: 95,430
Posted By ElDucky
Ok, this is the weekend I learn how to use my...

Ok, this is the weekend I learn how to use my smoker.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-22-2020, 05:29 PM
Replies: 8,574
Views: 677,549
Posted By ElDucky
The second wave will consist of a slightly...

The second wave will consist of a slightly elevated from the local minimum point of the curve that lasts indefinitely until vaccine or herd immunity. With possibly localized outbreaks to contain....
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-22-2020, 05:28 PM
Replies: 8,574
Views: 677,549
Posted By ElDucky
My reactions aren't mixed. It's stupid and was...

My reactions aren't mixed. It's stupid and was obvious months ago. Spending billions of dollars to cope with the 99.9% tail is a dubious proposition when the 90% or 50% are vastly cheaper. But...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-22-2020, 05:20 PM
Replies: 2,856
Views: 329,883
Posted By ElDucky
I unfortunately didn't have call writing...

I unfortunately didn't have call writing privileges on my accounts, but you could write Disney $70 puts for a $5 premium, with only a month till expiry. Pure insanity.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-21-2020, 12:21 PM
Replies: 2,856
Views: 329,883
Posted By ElDucky
You should bet on when that will come back.

You should bet on when that will come back.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-20-2020, 03:57 PM
Replies: 2,856
Views: 329,883
Posted By ElDucky
So hedge your bets and buy Gildan. With all the...

So hedge your bets and buy Gildan. With all the shirt losses they will be doing great.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-19-2020, 05:31 PM
Replies: 2,856
Views: 329,883
Posted By ElDucky
Isn't everyone doing that?

Isn't everyone doing that?
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-19-2020, 05:19 PM
Replies: 2,856
Views: 329,883
Posted By ElDucky
Offshore oil could be in trouble. It's on par...

Offshore oil could be in trouble. It's on par with shale as the marginal barrel.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-19-2020, 04:34 PM
Replies: 2,856
Views: 329,883
Posted By ElDucky
They have a hell of a budget problem even $68...

They have a hell of a budget problem even $68 won't fill. I'd say it's wishful thinking for them, that might happen to end up right, not based on any good analysis. I assume they took $60 from the...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-19-2020, 04:06 PM
Replies: 8,574
Views: 677,549
Posted By ElDucky
I agree with the buffer, if the central area...

I agree with the buffer, if the central area cases are bad enough, though in most areas I don't think it is. No buffer plus the central area closed would be worse than just opening everywhere.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-19-2020, 03:56 PM
Replies: 2,856
Views: 329,883
Posted By ElDucky
IFYP

IFYP
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-19-2020, 12:43 PM
Replies: 2,856
Views: 329,883
Posted By ElDucky
Everything will open up fast, the liquidity...

Everything will open up fast, the liquidity injection was ridiculously large, inflation is coming and less so stagflation than I originally thought. Oil production was badly damaged, but demand will...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-15-2020, 07:58 PM
Replies: 8,574
Views: 677,549
Posted By ElDucky
Yes. The vaccines that are far along can fast...

Yes. The vaccines that are far along can fast track safety measures, because they are varients of MERS vaccines that were already tested. Efficacy tests are being done.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-15-2020, 07:15 PM
Replies: 8,574
Views: 677,549
Posted By ElDucky
Quoted for posterity.

Quoted for posterity.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-15-2020, 06:04 PM
Replies: 8,574
Views: 677,549
Posted By ElDucky
Option A - September Vaccine Option B - **** it

Option A - September Vaccine
Option B - **** it
Showing results 1 to 25 of 300

 

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