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Search: Posts Made By: Colymbosathon ecplecticos
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 12-04-2018, 09:46 PM
Replies: 1,553
Views: 199,672
Both of you are forgetting that you only pay tax...

Both of you are forgetting that you only pay tax on the gain. If (somehow) your basis in the shares was 0, then you would pay tax on the full amount. More likely, you have a gain of, say, 20%. Then...
Forum: MAS-I 12-02-2018, 08:43 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 431
How about the source material? That's the only...

How about the source material? That's the only material that the examiners use.
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 12-02-2018, 08:42 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 801
Do you have premium? Or number of policies? ...

Do you have premium? Or number of policies? Those could be exposure bases. Many exposure bases are possible.
Forum: Software & Technology 12-01-2018, 10:00 AM
Replies: 42
Views: 1,461
Cubic zirconia isn't carbon.

Cubic zirconia isn't carbon.
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 11-30-2018, 11:00 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 923
Somehow this seems vaguely reminiscent of some...

Somehow this seems vaguely reminiscent of some recent events.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 11-28-2018, 09:54 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 730
Sure. Consider a lognormally distributed...

Sure.

Consider a lognormally distributed response. First transform the response by taking a log. The resulting variable is normally distributed with mean mu.

Fit a GLM. The log link sets the...
Forum: General Actuarial 11-28-2018, 08:38 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 560
Normal distributions have skew=0. I would...

Normal distributions have skew=0.

I would expect loss ratios to occasionally be large. Far larger than a normal distribution would be likely to produce. To depict this in a graph, a...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 11-28-2018, 02:43 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 730
This is somewhat misleading. First off,...

This is somewhat misleading. First off, regressing A on B means that A is the response and B is the predictor.

In a GLM the link function relates the expected value of the response to the linear...
Forum: General Actuarial 11-28-2018, 12:17 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 560
Mean and standard deviation are good measures for...

Mean and standard deviation are good measures for normally distributed data --- any reason to think that your loss ratios are distributed that way?

I would likely go with side-by-side...
Forum: MAS-I 11-27-2018, 08:26 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 2,268
So, you've sat three times and never used the...

So, you've sat three times and never used the source material.

The ONLY material that the examiners use is the source material.

Hmmmm….
Forum: Chat with the Candidates & Exam Committee 11-21-2018, 11:28 PM
Replies: 82
Views: 17,449
How would anyone know? Suppose that passing is a...

How would anyone know? Suppose that passing is a 60 points. You get a "5" --- that means that you had between 54.0 and 59.9 points. How could anyone know that they were 1 or 2 points from passing?...
Forum: Chat with the Candidates & Exam Committee 11-21-2018, 08:13 PM
Replies: 82
Views: 17,449
Why do you think this?

Why do you think this?
Forum: Careers - Employment 11-20-2018, 11:31 PM
Replies: 61
Views: 2,847
Like I used to tell my boss, "Remember the $15...

Like I used to tell my boss, "Remember the $15 million loss that we didn't have last year on that old reinsurance contract, the one that I commuted for the held reserve? No? Well, that's why you...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 11-19-2018, 11:17 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 1,066
You are assuming 40% tax rate on all income ---...

You are assuming 40% tax rate on all income --- long term capital gains get a more favorable rate.


But ignoring that for the moment, yes you have more present value income if you can defer...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 11-17-2018, 08:44 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 391
French 75

French 75
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 11-15-2018, 10:33 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 632
Example: WP = $100 After the premium is...

Example:

WP = $100

After the premium is written, you realize that future losses + future expenses = 300.

At this point we must have: UPR + PDR >= 300

We all seem to agree on that.
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 11-15-2018, 05:12 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 632
Suppose that after writing the business (during...

Suppose that after writing the business (during say year 3 in my example). you discover that the expected loss ratio is not going to be 30%, but in fact will be closer to 300%. UPR is inadequate.
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 11-15-2018, 04:10 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 632
As time passes, you will earn your UPR down. If...

As time passes, you will earn your UPR down. If you are earning it faster than the exposure is running off, you can develop a need for a PDR later in the contract life.

A good example is extended...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 11-14-2018, 09:19 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 960
I don't have access to the source material, but...

I don't have access to the source material, but the answer to your question is the following:

1) in a perfect world, we would use an enormous number of iterations. process variance would be...
Forum: Careers - Employment 11-13-2018, 11:56 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 2,038
If you seriously want to meet an actuary that has...

If you seriously want to meet an actuary that has published something. Read that paper and write to the author with a question about the paper. (The question needs to be non-trivial.) They'll...
Forum: General Actuarial 11-12-2018, 10:14 PM
Replies: 1,957
Views: 179,159
I'm betting on "Combined Actuaries...

I'm betting on "Combined Actuaries Society".
Forum: General Actuarial 11-12-2018, 02:14 PM
Replies: 1,957
Views: 179,159
Why would anybody think that that is what was...

Why would anybody think that that is what was proposed??
Forum: General Actuarial 11-12-2018, 01:52 PM
Replies: 1,957
Views: 179,159
That's a really bizarre spin to put on this. ...

That's a really bizarre spin to put on this.

Years ago, I shared a driveway with a neighbor. If either of us parked in the driveway, the other couldn't get their car out. Suppose I went to my...
Forum: Life 11-11-2018, 10:53 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 361
Where do your q values come from? Are they...

Where do your q values come from? Are they deaths per month? If so, averaging them will get you the average deaths per month, not deaths per year which is what you want.

Try making a life table...
Forum: MAS-I 11-07-2018, 05:46 PM
Replies: 517
Views: 85,039
Did you read the source material? That is what...

Did you read the source material? That is what the examiners base their questions on.
Showing results 1 to 25 of 300

 

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