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Search: Posts Made By: Abraham Weishaus
Forum: MAS-I Yesterday, 05:09 PM
Replies: 151
Views: 22,176
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Yes. I'm going to remove the smoothing part from...

Yes. I'm going to remove the smoothing part from the question. The original exam question based on the textbook used then used a simpler smoothing method - they had 10 observations, with the first...
Forum: MAS-I Yesterday, 05:05 PM
Replies: 151
Views: 22,176
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Yes, .6 quantile = 60 percentile. Divide your...

Yes, .6 quantile = 60 percentile. Divide your percentile number by 100 to get the corresponding quantile.


I should divide, not multiply: k/(n+1) quantile. I'll post an erratum.
Forum: MAS-I 09-05-2019, 12:46 PM
Replies: 151
Views: 22,176
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Don't thank me - thank Klugman and the other...

Don't thank me - thank Klugman and the other authors of Loss Models for their method. I understand Tse's logic, but a method that sets the median of {1,1,3,3,5,5) equal to 2.5 rather than 3 strikes...
Forum: MAS-I 09-04-2019, 04:47 PM
Replies: 151
Views: 22,176
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
This smoothing method, from Tse's textbook, is...

This smoothing method, from Tse's textbook, is slightly different from the one in Loss Models (and described in the ASM manual). Since MAS-I is purely based on Tse and not Loss Models, I will post...
Forum: MAS-I 09-03-2019, 08:58 PM
Replies: 151
Views: 22,176
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
The question asks for the smoothed empirical...

The question asks for the smoothed empirical percentile, and that is 11.625 - read the textbook to see how smoothed empirical percentile is defined. 12 is the 75th percentile of the empirical...
Forum: MAS-I 09-03-2019, 08:52 PM
Replies: 151
Views: 22,176
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Read the "Tables" section in the introduction of...

Read the "Tables" section in the introduction of the ASM manual. Or if you wish, download an old MAS-I exam and read the second bullet of item #4 of the exam instructions. A little weird that they...
Forum: MAS-I 08-05-2019, 05:58 PM
Replies: 151
Views: 22,176
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Where is the solution assuming that?

Where is the solution assuming that?
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 08-04-2019, 07:34 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 381
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
OK, that's not a good way to prove it. Here's a...

OK, that's not a good way to prove it. Here's a better way.
e_Z(d(1+r))= E[Z-d(1+r)|Z>d(1+r)]
Now Z>d(1+r) if and only if X>d, so this is
e_Z(d(1+r))=E[Z-d(1+r)|X>d]
But...
Forum: MAS-I 07-27-2019, 10:29 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 657
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
The links in the ASM manual to all the old exams...

The links in the ASM manual to all the old exams still work, so they're all stored on the CAS site. Most of the links are of the form www.casact.org/ admissions/ studytools/ exam3/ spyy-3.pdf...
Forum: MAS-I 07-24-2019, 09:30 PM
Replies: 151
Views: 22,176
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Well, since the first paragraph of The...

Well, since the first paragraph of The Disreputable Dog's post is taken from Ross page 651 which is on the MAS-I syllabus, I would say that the method is on the MAS-I syllabus.


But I agree that...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 07-20-2019, 10:49 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 456
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Effective date of the rate change, not effective...

Effective date of the rate change, not effective date of the policy. Usually the date the policy is issued isn't called the effective date, it's called something else, like "issue date". But I can...
Forum: MAS-I 07-14-2019, 01:39 PM
Replies: 151
Views: 22,176
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Yes, #1 and #3 are errors on my part. And you...

Yes, #1 and #3 are errors on my part. And you have gone through Ross's derivation in #2 so you should get the same result.
Forum: MAS-I 07-09-2019, 06:07 PM
Replies: 151
Views: 22,176
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Yes. With modern computers using lots of...

Yes. With modern computers using lots of precision, the probability of 0 is infinitesimal, so it hardly makes a difference, but that is the reason Ross prefers the second method.
Forum: MAS-I 07-09-2019, 12:53 PM
Replies: 151
Views: 22,176
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
In practice most computer random number...

In practice most computer random number generators can generate 0 but will never generate 1. That's why Ross is the preferred option.
Forum: MAS-I 07-06-2019, 10:30 PM
Replies: 151
Views: 22,176
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Can you be more specific of what you think is...

Can you be more specific of what you think is wrong? For example, what labeling do you expect in Figure 17.7?
Forum: Long-Term Actuarial Math 07-03-2019, 08:40 AM
Replies: 7
Views: 634
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
You must distinguish between joint probability...

You must distinguish between joint probability and conditional probability. Recall from probability the formula \Pr(A\mid B)=\frac{\Pr(A\cap B)}{Pr(B)
Q 10.2 is asking for a conditional...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 07-01-2019, 06:08 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 777
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
And it's not the wording in the ASM manual either.

And it's not the wording in the ASM manual either.
Forum: MAS-I 06-23-2019, 03:19 PM
Replies: 151
Views: 22,176
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
For such a short question (4 years), the...

For such a short question (4 years), the recursive formula doesn't save you much work. And while the CAS occasionally asks off-syllabus questions, I doubt they would ever ask a question on variance...
Forum: Long-Term Actuarial Math 05-17-2019, 04:34 PM
Replies: 749
Views: 131,086
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
I agree with the PAK on all multiple choice...

I agree with the PAK on all multiple choice questions.
Forum: Statistics for Risk Modeling 05-16-2019, 09:02 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 4,261
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
See the first page of Lesson 20: "The...

See the first page of Lesson 20: "The coefficients \beta_0 and \beta_1 may be estimated using the method of conditional least squares, which is simply regression ... ".
Forum: Statistics for Risk Modeling 05-16-2019, 08:58 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 4,261
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
As the ASM manual says, they don't give you a...

As the ASM manual says, they don't give you a table with critical values for F, making F questions less likely.
Simple linear regression? That's the square root of formula (3.8).
Forum: Investment / Financial Markets 05-10-2019, 05:24 PM
Replies: 73
Views: 20,396
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
New material often has errors, but it looks like...

New material often has errors, but it looks like most of them have been caught already. The errata list for the last printing was only 2 pages, with no errors reported since 3/24.
Forum: MAS-I 04-19-2019, 06:28 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 739
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
In the ASM question, you may include the delta in...

In the ASM question, you may include the delta in your calculations, but it will just lead to another constant after inverted - and there is a mu in the inverted series. We just want the coefficient...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 04-12-2019, 05:21 PM
Replies: 128
Views: 41,226
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
That was a typo in the 12 week study plan, 15-18...

That was a typo in the 12 week study plan, 15-18 should be 15-21.
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 04-08-2019, 05:47 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 778
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Every insurance policy that I am aware of...

Every insurance policy that I am aware of requires payment at the beginning of the insurance period (the policy year for a one-year policy), unless another periodic pattern (like quarterly, monthly)...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 300

 

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