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Search: Posts Made By: d123454321
Forum: Careers - Employment 08-06-2018, 04:28 PM
Replies: 141
Views: 7,580
Posted By d123454321
The 200K level is a moving target in theory...

The 200K level is a moving target in theory because inflation. 30 years from now 200K will be like 100K. One would need to earn close to 400K-500K in 30 years from now to be like 200K now.

That...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 07-17-2018, 11:45 PM
Replies: 149
Views: 8,344
Posted By d123454321
It doesn't have to be one or the other. Say...

It doesn't have to be one or the other.

Say one has X extra per year during high earning years.

The person can put 0.5X into other investments, and 0.5X into paying down mortgage quicker.
...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 07-13-2018, 03:48 PM
Replies: 149
Views: 8,344
Posted By d123454321
Can go both ways, what if that happened and the...

Can go both ways, what if that happened and the person couldn't' afford house on 60% income, but if they had invested extra money years ago, and go additional returns, the additional money they'd...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 07-12-2018, 02:57 PM
Replies: 149
Views: 8,344
Posted By d123454321
This exactly. Also since many mortgages are...

This exactly.

Also since many mortgages are 30 years the risk from investing is reduced.

Make no mistake in the example the 2.4% net interest returned from paying down mortgage is risk free.
...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 06-28-2018, 05:04 PM
Replies: 1,481
Views: 188,461
Posted By d123454321
Out of pure randomness it is likely to have 1 day...

Out of pure randomness it is likely to have 1 day that had 83.3% win percentage in 21st century.
Forum: Pension - Social Security 05-17-2018, 10:09 AM
Replies: 1,567
Views: 96,303
Posted By d123454321
Excellent point. I realized that after I posted,...

Excellent point. I realized that after I posted, but yeah, as values drop, taxes would go down to offset.

But, is IL doing a static analysis, or do they insist it is 1% of current values, because...
Forum: Pension - Social Security 05-14-2018, 09:45 AM
Replies: 1,567
Views: 96,303
Posted By d123454321
It's 1%/year for 30 years. So undiscounted that...

It's 1%/year for 30 years. So undiscounted that should knock 30% off the prices, all else equal. After discounting and accounting for difficult moving, should have much smaller impact.

But...
Forum: Pension - Social Security 05-11-2018, 01:56 PM
Replies: 1,567
Views: 96,303
Posted By d123454321
It's concerning that the funded ratio only...

It's concerning that the funded ratio only increases 3% after such a huge up year in US stock market.

Long term average S& P return is 9% while current BBB effective yield is 4.3%, so with 60/40...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 04-30-2018, 09:36 AM
Replies: 1,481
Views: 188,461
Posted By d123454321
Active trading is very tax inefficient. ...

Active trading is very tax inefficient.

Assume Long term S&P return is 8% annualized...with 2% from dividends and 6% from appreciation. This is below historical near 9% average return.

Well...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 04-25-2018, 12:28 PM
Replies: 1,481
Views: 188,461
Posted By d123454321
Japan may not be a relevant comparison. In...

Japan may not be a relevant comparison.

In Japan the population is declining, so not that hard to have a recession. If productivity ever stagnated, even with unemployment flat, total output would...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 04-25-2018, 11:02 AM
Replies: 1,481
Views: 188,461
Posted By d123454321
In 2008 it was normal, but there was an inversion...

In 2008 it was normal, but there was an inversion before in 2006-7.

Now there has yet to be an inversion. The 3% 10Y if anything reflects strong growth/inflation expectations which helps earnings.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 04-17-2018, 11:59 AM
Replies: 51
Views: 12,113
Posted By d123454321
The IRA has the benefit of no taxation at the end...

The IRA has the benefit of no taxation at the end of each year which hurts compounding though
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 04-10-2018, 12:21 PM
Replies: 1,481
Views: 188,461
Posted By d123454321
As long as tax cuts remain, and taxes are lower...

As long as tax cuts remain, and taxes are lower than ever historically, then AFTER TAX profit margins should remain higher than they ever have been.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 04-10-2018, 09:48 AM
Replies: 1,481
Views: 188,461
Posted By d123454321
the 20 year average forward PE also includes...

the 20 year average forward PE also includes 2008-2012 when valuations were suppressed. It weights both a bubble, 1999-2001, and depressed levels. Seems balanced.

CAPE comparisons to long term...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 04-09-2018, 01:33 PM
Replies: 1,481
Views: 188,461
Posted By d123454321
20 year average forward PE is about 17. It only...

20 year average forward PE is about 17. It only poked above 17 in late 2017 and early 2018. Hasn't been bad for very long...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 04-03-2018, 01:21 PM
Replies: 1,481
Views: 188,461
Posted By d123454321
in January 2016, the going forward 12 month...

in January 2016, the going forward 12 month earnings estimates for S&P were around $130. Now the same number is $165, and rising by the week. If the 2016 lows were revisited, the forward PE would...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 02-09-2018, 02:00 PM
Replies: 1,481
Views: 188,461
Posted By d123454321
With XIV blowing up monday, it may be the ETF's...

With XIV blowing up monday, it may be the ETF's having to buy the VIX to cover shorts? Who knows.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 02-09-2018, 11:53 AM
Replies: 1,481
Views: 188,461
Posted By d123454321
Forward PE is now 16.5 for s&p 500. That is in...

Forward PE is now 16.5 for s&p 500. That is in line with last 20 year average. Was 26 at dot com peak and close to 11 at bottom of financial crisis.

2016 low had it tag 15. 15 would be about...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 02-01-2018, 09:48 AM
Replies: 195
Views: 16,498
Posted By d123454321
I thought loan underwriters usually look to make...

I thought loan underwriters usually look to make sure you're not borrowing for the down payment, it's not usually acceptable.
Forum: Professional Surveys 01-24-2018, 03:26 PM
Replies: 98
Views: 19,899
Posted By d123454321
Seriously?

Seriously?
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 01-24-2018, 09:10 AM
Replies: 195
Views: 16,498
Posted By d123454321
Wow great. Isn't there a large tax liability on...

Wow great. Isn't there a large tax liability on crypto gains?
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 12-22-2017, 08:35 AM
Replies: 51
Views: 12,113
Posted By d123454321
I believe it kills recharacterization. Not...

I believe it kills recharacterization. Not backdoor conversion though
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 12-18-2017, 10:16 PM
Replies: 756
Views: 108,443
Posted By d123454321
Not sure it is truly irrational: The S&P 500...

Not sure it is truly irrational:

The S&P 500 is up 20% this year, on price gains.

But Earnings Per Share are set to rise 10% in 2017 from 2016 levels. Also, many analysts estimate that the...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 11-20-2017, 02:07 PM
Replies: 272
Views: 33,328
Posted By d123454321
non actuarially-sound pricing!

non actuarially-sound pricing!
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 10-25-2017, 12:09 PM
Replies: 110
Views: 13,572
Posted By d123454321
Good point. Mnuchin even said the market may...

Good point. Mnuchin even said the market may have over-priced it in. I think 20% was still pushed, but it likely won't pass unless it's 25%.
Showing results 1 to 25 of 300

 

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