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Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-17-2020, 10:39 PM
Replies: 8,491
Views: 666,016
Posted By gauchodelpaso
We all know it's dangerous, don't we? And deaths...

We all know it's dangerous, don't we? And deaths due to just Covid in US are just a very small fraction of the total (since 2/1 13,000 on one report for JUST Covid, 37,000 on another counting...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-17-2020, 10:01 PM
Replies: 8,491
Views: 666,016
Posted By gauchodelpaso
Thank you Helena! It's a challenge as for...

Thank you Helena! It's a challenge as for everything new a learn, I forget 2!

The other issue I find is that is a little difficult to change subjects in my mind, like when taking a Practice Exam....
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-17-2020, 05:22 PM
Replies: 8,491
Views: 666,016
Posted By gauchodelpaso
[QUOTE=Dr T Non-Fan;9848253]You're taking exams...

[QUOTE=Dr T Non-Fan;9848253]You're taking exams at age 73? OK.

Yes, I started in my 65, just after retiring as an electrical engineer. I love actuarial. Beats doing Sudoku
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-17-2020, 04:19 PM
Replies: 8,491
Views: 666,016
Posted By gauchodelpaso
Being 73, everybody in my family points to me,...

Being 73, everybody in my family points to me, what everybody and their uncle (CDC, Dr Fauci) are saying about not being exposed, AS MOST OF THE DEATHS ARE FOR OLDER PEOPLE.

Sometimes I wonder how...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 04-17-2020, 12:52 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 325
Posted By gauchodelpaso
f(x)= a/300*exp(-x/300) F(x)= int(f(x) dx) =...

f(x)= a/300*exp(-x/300)
F(x)= int(f(x) dx) = a/300 * int(exp(-t/300 dt))(between 0 and x)=
=a/300 (-300 * [exp(-t/300)] (between 0 and x)=
=a(1-exp(x/300)

"a" comes out of the integral and...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 04-13-2020, 06:27 PM
Replies: 120
Views: 25,753
Posted By gauchodelpaso
tip my hat, congratulations!

tip my hat, congratulations!
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 04-06-2020, 03:05 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 756
Posted By gauchodelpaso
I guess the point here is that payment needs to...

I guess the point here is that payment needs to be monotonically increasing to make sense. It can't go from 4,000 to 0. When I graphed it it made sense to me.
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 04-06-2020, 02:41 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 756
Posted By gauchodelpaso
Finan has it somewhat reworded, and it's SOA 286...

Finan has it somewhat reworded, and it's SOA 286 with this wording (no wonder I could not find it in a search with the original wording):
"Example 35.9
Michael is a professional stuntman who...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 04-06-2020, 09:59 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 756
Posted By gauchodelpaso
I guess it's best if the instructor is made aware...

I guess it's best if the instructor is made aware of this post. He is just perpetuating the LM question. Although I believe I've seen it in at least one manual.
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 04-06-2020, 01:07 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 756
Posted By gauchodelpaso
Jim Daniels discussed this already in this post,...

Jim Daniels discussed this already in this post, there is probably some poor wording in the statement of the problem.
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 04-05-2020, 12:53 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 756
Posted By gauchodelpaso
In this particular case the different layers and...

In this particular case the different layers and their expected losses are
0-1000 833.33
1000-6000 1893.94
6000-14000 956.94
>14000 1315.79
and all together sum...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 04-05-2020, 12:13 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 756
Posted By gauchodelpaso
If I understand it correctly the way that Jim...

If I understand it correctly the way that Jim explained, then this refers to the portion of the loss that falls within each layer. You could have a loss X that can fall anywhere between 0 and...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 04-05-2020, 11:04 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 756
Posted By gauchodelpaso
I understand, but in the statement of your...

I understand, but in the statement of your example you don't mention 14,000. Can you state your example totally including the 14,000 portion? if not, I don't understand it.

Basically you need to...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 04-05-2020, 10:41 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 756
Posted By gauchodelpaso
This problem looks like an adaptation of the one...

This problem looks like an adaptation of the one in LM, 8.26 in the Fifth edition, page 139/140. It's somewhat easier as in the original you had to derive the value 14,000 from a 10,000 total payment...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 04-05-2020, 10:02 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 756
Posted By gauchodelpaso
Where is 14,000 in your example?

Where is 14,000 in your example?
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-30-2020, 04:38 PM
Replies: 8,491
Views: 666,016
Posted By gauchodelpaso
That's good news, as long as they did not run out...

That's good news, as long as they did not run out of test kits or just hoarding them for stricter controls.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-29-2020, 09:57 PM
Replies: 8,491
Views: 666,016
Posted By gauchodelpaso
Daily multiplier since March 16 for USA: 1.60 ...

Daily multiplier since March 16 for USA:
1.60
1.32
1.39
1.35
1.33
1.32
1.24
1.23
1.23
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-29-2020, 09:26 PM
Replies: 8,491
Views: 666,016
Posted By gauchodelpaso
is it just me that sees the rate of confirmed...

is it just me that sees the rate of confirmed cases decreasing in the US? from 35% in the early weeks to 20-25% in the last week? Is it lack of testing or quarantine working? or both? Deaths is...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-27-2020, 10:27 PM
Replies: 8,491
Views: 666,016
Posted By gauchodelpaso
Sunday night

Sunday night
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-27-2020, 04:13 PM
Replies: 8,491
Views: 666,016
Posted By gauchodelpaso
I check my temperature daily...

I check my temperature daily...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-25-2020, 10:34 PM
Replies: 8,491
Views: 666,016
Posted By gauchodelpaso
95,500 in my model... but tomorrow... Thursday,...

95,500 in my model... but tomorrow... Thursday, not Friday
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-25-2020, 12:21 AM
Replies: 8,491
Views: 666,016
Posted By gauchodelpaso
The current rate of deaths/tested positive is...

The current rate of deaths/tested positive is 1.2%. 1.2% of 1 million tested positive is 12,000. Although the deaths were people tested positive days before. So they are not in the same timeframe....
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-24-2020, 11:52 PM
Replies: 8,491
Views: 666,016
Posted By gauchodelpaso
I don't understand how nobody here has said...

I don't understand how nobody here has said anything about possible scenarios in 10 days, when nothing we would implement today will have ANY effect on the outcome, due to the time for infection and...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-22-2020, 01:35 PM
Replies: 8,491
Views: 666,016
Posted By gauchodelpaso
https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomaspueyo/ he...

https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomaspueyo/

he does have impressive credentials
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-21-2020, 09:13 PM
Replies: 8,491
Views: 666,016
Posted By gauchodelpaso
Thank you, it makes a lot of sense. What...

Thank you, it makes a lot of sense.

What bugs me is a supposedly reputable means of communication like Forbes should not publish pseudo-science with wild affirmations like this one. LIES, BIG...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 184

 

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