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Search: Posts Made By: gauchodelpaso
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math Yesterday, 04:28 PM
Replies: 0
Views: 108
Posted By gauchodelpaso
List of 115 more difficult C problems from SOA and CAS exam

I've just wanted to share a list of problems where I found more difficulty during my study. Of course it's just my own appreciation. I found a total of 28 past exams from 1999 to 2007 from SOA and...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 06-06-2019, 10:50 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 359
Posted By gauchodelpaso
do you remember what were the tough questions...

do you remember what were the tough questions about? MLE, Credibilty, newer stuff, odd subjects (KS, chi square, loglikelihood ratio)? Or was it lengthy resolution?

I've been using just about...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 06-01-2019, 06:23 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 236
Posted By gauchodelpaso
Because it says so: Calculate the semiparametric...

Because it says so: Calculate the semiparametric empirical Bayes estimate of the number of claims in Year 2 for the same policyholder.

It may be confusing they use Bayes in the question. But it is...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 04-20-2019, 09:27 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 595
Posted By gauchodelpaso
OK, I take it! PM me with details, I normally use...

OK, I take it! PM me with details, I normally use Paypal
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 03-15-2019, 04:04 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 1,422
Posted By gauchodelpaso
just by looking at a Lee diagram, I can see they...

just by looking at a Lee diagram, I can see they are not the same thing... LER is the ratio of 2 areas, fe is the ratio of a segment to the total area, and it's a proper distribution that adds up to...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 03-05-2019, 02:23 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 2,623
Posted By gauchodelpaso
Yes Shunday, that's a good insight too. For this...

Yes Shunday, that's a good insight too. For this case of comparing 2 distributions using the loglikelihood ratio (LLR?) or difference of loglikelihoods, I can see that the distribution used for Ho...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 03-05-2019, 09:20 AM
Replies: 20
Views: 2,623
Posted By gauchodelpaso
After all my ranting and a good night sleep,...

After all my ranting and a good night sleep, first I apologize for my stupidity, and then I think I found my answer. What I believe is that if I run the experiment/sampling 10,000 times I will find...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 03-05-2019, 01:49 AM
Replies: 20
Views: 2,623
Posted By gauchodelpaso
Regarding your second comment, Mr Fossilized...

Regarding your second comment, Mr Fossilized Swimmer (lol) and thank you for posting it, you mention:

"If the underlying is truly continuous (see below), then significant at the 2.624% level means...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 03-05-2019, 01:39 AM
Replies: 20
Views: 2,623
Posted By gauchodelpaso
Thank you special swimmer! But I still don't get...

Thank you special swimmer! But I still don't get even the example of the orange juice...

you mention:
"We then go and obtain some data: 57% of people in our survey (N= 100) drink orange juice...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 03-04-2019, 10:52 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 2,623
Posted By gauchodelpaso
I am sorry for all the noise due to my lack of...

I am sorry for all the noise due to my lack of understanding. I guess a possible explanation based on Colymbosathon ecplecticos answer would be that we may not know when we are wrong in the...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 03-04-2019, 10:33 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 2,623
Posted By gauchodelpaso
1) I understand that 1/40 = 2.5% and 1/20 = 5%. ...

1) I understand that 1/40 = 2.5% and 1/20 = 5%.
2) These are type of questions that compare 2 possible distributions, and the loglikelihood of given some samples , assume that the Ho is the...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 03-04-2019, 09:28 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 2,623
Posted By gauchodelpaso
Thank you anyhow, for answering my questions,...

Thank you anyhow, for answering my questions, that solely reflect my own level of incapacity.
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 03-04-2019, 09:23 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 2,623
Posted By gauchodelpaso
:confused: Why can't I get a straight answer to...

:confused: Why can't I get a straight answer to my questions???? I give very specific examples, and I am answered with a different, or seemingly different, example... I know I may be dense... but how...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 03-04-2019, 09:15 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 2,623
Posted By gauchodelpaso
I guess the jury may still be out among...

I guess the jury may still be out among non-statisticians about reject or can't accept being different. To me it's the same thing "I can't accept somebody stealing" or "I reject somebody stealing"....
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 03-04-2019, 07:31 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 2,623
Posted By gauchodelpaso
so we accept(or can't reject) Ho at 2.5%...

so we accept(or can't reject) Ho at 2.5% probability that may be true, but we reject at 5% because we can't have that level of significance with this data. Is that correct?
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 03-04-2019, 07:14 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 2,623
Posted By gauchodelpaso
Thank you Dr Weishaus again!

Thank you Dr Weishaus again!
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 03-03-2019, 04:34 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 2,623
Posted By gauchodelpaso
Well, here I am 12 years later... trying to...

Well, here I am 12 years later... trying to understand the significance. And I've been 100 times with hypothesis testing and still don't get it right, must be my brain convolutions are convoluted......
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 02-01-2019, 01:40 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 1,607
Posted By gauchodelpaso
I believe this case is the one where q is...

I believe this case is the one where q is different for each Xi. It's important to know if it's the same for each or not. Like if some coins are weighted, then the q is not probably the same. For the...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 02-01-2019, 12:24 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 1,607
Posted By gauchodelpaso
Yes, Jim, I believe it was Exam C Spring 2007,...

Yes, Jim, I believe it was Exam C Spring 2007, question 3, with a different beta.

"You are given:
(i) Conditional on Q = q, the random variables X1, X2 ,, Xm are independent and follow
a...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 02-01-2019, 01:05 AM
Replies: 11
Views: 1,607
Posted By gauchodelpaso
FINAL NOTE I doubt most what I had shown here,...

FINAL NOTE
I doubt most what I had shown here, so I will delete in my prior postings the questionable or confusing parts (like Z=20X).
What I found was that this has been extensively discussed...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 01-31-2019, 11:04 AM
Replies: 77
Views: 17,465
Posted By gauchodelpaso
which edition are you using? I have 17th and skip...

which edition are you using? I have 17th and skip 21-31 and 59-64. Which is 36? In my case it is 36 Hypothesis Tests: Graphic Comparison
I am not skipping it. SOA 176 and 241 have p-p plots
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 01-30-2019, 09:54 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 1,607
Posted By gauchodelpaso
I will attempt here to solve with more details,...

I will attempt here to solve with more details, but I am sure I may be prone to errors, so please point them out to me.

For the case of the sum of 20 iid Bernoulli that make one binomial...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 11-02-2018, 11:13 PM
Replies: 0
Views: 1,006
Posted By gauchodelpaso
STAM sample - difficulty of exercises

I've just finished a first pass on the sample, up to #289. The rest (306 to 326) that are based on newer information did not seem that difficult and I will do a final summary when I get there. I...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 11-02-2018, 06:37 PM
Replies: 0
Views: 932
Posted By gauchodelpaso
Exam STAM Sample 285 tricky

This is an exercise prepared for you to answer it wrongly. Here is the exercise

"285. You are the producer for the television show Actuarial Idol. Each year, 1000 actuarial clubs audition for the...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 10-29-2018, 04:39 PM
Replies: 0
Views: 689
Posted By gauchodelpaso
Sample 242 - Range of possible solutions

This sample exercise is not excessively difficult or with lengthy calculations, unless your brain is tired like mine. If you are pressed for time, one method is to eliminate unlikely answers. In this...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 115

 

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