Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Search Forums
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions

Salary Surveys
Property & Casualty, Life, Health & Pension

Health Actuary Jobs
Insurance & Consulting jobs for Students, Associates & Fellows

Actuarial Recruitment
Visit DW Simpson's website for more info.
www.dwsimpson.com/about

Casualty Jobs
Property & Casualty jobs for Students, Associates & Fellows


Showing results 1 to 25 of 300
Search took 0.07 seconds.
Search: Posts Made By: d123454321
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 02-14-2019, 10:25 AM
Replies: 1,670
Views: 215,659
Posted By d123454321
May not be as crazy at it seems. This cycle...

May not be as crazy at it seems. This cycle interest rates are lower, so spending 20% more adjusted for inflation on a car when borrowing rates are in the 2-3% range for highest credit score, versus...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 12-18-2018, 10:18 AM
Replies: 1,670
Views: 215,659
Posted By d123454321
Inflation expectations have peaked a few months...

Inflation expectations have peaked a few months ago, so it's strange why they seem to want to crush inflation still. FFR is currently above PCE core inflation of 1.7%.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 12-13-2018, 12:34 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 1,084
Posted By d123454321
No just forgot if the adjective for the corp is...

No just forgot if the adjective for the corp is before or after verb.

FDIC has it before, SIPC, has it after.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 12-13-2018, 11:52 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 1,084
Posted By d123454321
it's not FDIC insured. It's SIPC insured it...

it's not FDIC insured. It's SIPC insured it seems. $250K cash for SIPC.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 12-06-2018, 03:20 PM
Replies: 1,670
Views: 215,659
Posted By d123454321
If traditional methods inlude CAPE then they will...

If traditional methods inlude CAPE then they will continue to overstate valuations.

The big tax cut 10% boost to EPS is not reflected in past earnings so any metric using historical earnings...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 12-06-2018, 03:12 PM
Replies: 1,670
Views: 215,659
Posted By d123454321
At this mornings low the S&P was at 15x forward...

At this mornings low the S&P was at 15x forward earnings which roughly matched the valuation at 2016 low.

Average PE since 1995 has been closer to 17...several years from 1998 to 2002 where there...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 12-05-2018, 05:25 PM
Replies: 1,670
Views: 215,659
Posted By d123454321
This time it's different is dangerous. In 2006...

This time it's different is dangerous. In 2006 when yield curve inverted housing prices had peaked and started falling and it still didn't accelerate the recession which took nearly 2 years after...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 12-05-2018, 10:35 AM
Replies: 1,670
Views: 215,659
Posted By d123454321
Also if the fed comes in very dovish in December...

Also if the fed comes in very dovish in December meeting perhaps 2Y yield can plummet so much that an inversion may not happen. 2Y at 2.8% prices in 2 rate hike in next 1 year. If the guide they're...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 12-05-2018, 10:33 AM
Replies: 1,670
Views: 215,659
Posted By d123454321
Forbes had a article on it. Every one of last 5...

Forbes had a article on it. Every one of last 5 inversions as defined by 2/10 spread going negative, has saw S&p rally higher from point of first inversion to beginning of recession with average...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 10-26-2018, 12:54 PM
Replies: 1,670
Views: 215,659
Posted By d123454321
Forward PE on S&P 500 was 15.0 at today's low. ...

Forward PE on S&P 500 was 15.0 at today's low. That roughly matches the level at 2016 low.
Forum: Careers - Employment 08-06-2018, 05:28 PM
Replies: 140
Views: 8,286
Posted By d123454321
The 200K level is a moving target in theory...

The 200K level is a moving target in theory because inflation. 30 years from now 200K will be like 100K. One would need to earn close to 400K-500K in 30 years from now to be like 200K now.

That...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 07-18-2018, 12:45 AM
Replies: 168
Views: 13,190
Posted By d123454321
It doesn't have to be one or the other. Say...

It doesn't have to be one or the other.

Say one has X extra per year during high earning years.

The person can put 0.5X into other investments, and 0.5X into paying down mortgage quicker.
...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 07-13-2018, 04:48 PM
Replies: 168
Views: 13,190
Posted By d123454321
Can go both ways, what if that happened and the...

Can go both ways, what if that happened and the person couldn't' afford house on 60% income, but if they had invested extra money years ago, and go additional returns, the additional money they'd...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 07-12-2018, 03:57 PM
Replies: 168
Views: 13,190
Posted By d123454321
This exactly. Also since many mortgages are...

This exactly.

Also since many mortgages are 30 years the risk from investing is reduced.

Make no mistake in the example the 2.4% net interest returned from paying down mortgage is risk free.
...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 06-28-2018, 06:04 PM
Replies: 1,670
Views: 215,659
Posted By d123454321
Out of pure randomness it is likely to have 1 day...

Out of pure randomness it is likely to have 1 day that had 83.3% win percentage in 21st century.
Forum: Pension - Social Security 05-17-2018, 11:09 AM
Replies: 2,046
Views: 132,297
Posted By d123454321
Excellent point. I realized that after I posted,...

Excellent point. I realized that after I posted, but yeah, as values drop, taxes would go down to offset.

But, is IL doing a static analysis, or do they insist it is 1% of current values, because...
Forum: Pension - Social Security 05-14-2018, 10:45 AM
Replies: 2,046
Views: 132,297
Posted By d123454321
It's 1%/year for 30 years. So undiscounted that...

It's 1%/year for 30 years. So undiscounted that should knock 30% off the prices, all else equal. After discounting and accounting for difficult moving, should have much smaller impact.

But...
Forum: Pension - Social Security 05-11-2018, 02:56 PM
Replies: 2,046
Views: 132,297
Posted By d123454321
It's concerning that the funded ratio only...

It's concerning that the funded ratio only increases 3% after such a huge up year in US stock market.

Long term average S& P return is 9% while current BBB effective yield is 4.3%, so with 60/40...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 04-30-2018, 10:36 AM
Replies: 1,670
Views: 215,659
Posted By d123454321
Active trading is very tax inefficient. ...

Active trading is very tax inefficient.

Assume Long term S&P return is 8% annualized...with 2% from dividends and 6% from appreciation. This is below historical near 9% average return.

Well...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 04-25-2018, 01:28 PM
Replies: 1,670
Views: 215,659
Posted By d123454321
Japan may not be a relevant comparison. In...

Japan may not be a relevant comparison.

In Japan the population is declining, so not that hard to have a recession. If productivity ever stagnated, even with unemployment flat, total output would...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 04-25-2018, 12:02 PM
Replies: 1,670
Views: 215,659
Posted By d123454321
In 2008 it was normal, but there was an inversion...

In 2008 it was normal, but there was an inversion before in 2006-7.

Now there has yet to be an inversion. The 3% 10Y if anything reflects strong growth/inflation expectations which helps earnings.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 04-17-2018, 12:59 PM
Replies: 51
Views: 12,745
Posted By d123454321
The IRA has the benefit of no taxation at the end...

The IRA has the benefit of no taxation at the end of each year which hurts compounding though
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 04-10-2018, 01:21 PM
Replies: 1,670
Views: 215,659
Posted By d123454321
As long as tax cuts remain, and taxes are lower...

As long as tax cuts remain, and taxes are lower than ever historically, then AFTER TAX profit margins should remain higher than they ever have been.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 04-10-2018, 10:48 AM
Replies: 1,670
Views: 215,659
Posted By d123454321
the 20 year average forward PE also includes...

the 20 year average forward PE also includes 2008-2012 when valuations were suppressed. It weights both a bubble, 1999-2001, and depressed levels. Seems balanced.

CAPE comparisons to long term...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 04-09-2018, 02:33 PM
Replies: 1,670
Views: 215,659
Posted By d123454321
20 year average forward PE is about 17. It only...

20 year average forward PE is about 17. It only poked above 17 in late 2017 and early 2018. Hasn't been bad for very long...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 300

 

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:05 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.28230 seconds with 7 queries