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Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 02-14-2019, 12:09 PM
Replies: 33
Views: 646
Posted By Heywood J
In general, GLMs are simplistic enough that they...

In general, GLMs are simplistic enough that they are fairly robust to the choice of distribution, within reason. With more sophisticated models, that may no longer be the case, but then you'd...
Forum: Exam 8 (old Part 9) - Advanced Ratemaking 02-08-2019, 11:50 AM
Replies: 3,094
Views: 238,936
Posted By Heywood J
The correct answer is that if you're looking for...

The correct answer is that if you're looking for work, you're counted as unemployed. The length of your unemployment has nothing to do with it.
Forum: Exam 8 (old Part 9) - Advanced Ratemaking 02-06-2019, 04:31 PM
Replies: 3,094
Views: 238,936
Posted By Heywood J
That's not true.

That's not true.
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 01-25-2019, 09:52 AM
Replies: 28
Views: 1,089
Posted By Heywood J
The other basic one is that you will almost...

The other basic one is that you will almost certainly be excluding some data from the GLM analysis, either because it's bad or because it's just too out of the ordinary. There is no guarantee that...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 01-24-2019, 11:09 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 1,089
Posted By Heywood J
I think that's dangerous. There are multiple...

I think that's dangerous. There are multiple reasons why your model predictions may not quite hit the premium level target in aggregate, even if you go to the (unnecessary) trouble of doing all...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 01-22-2019, 10:39 AM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,925
Posted By Heywood J
I think my experience goes much farther than your...

I think my experience goes much farther than your imagination. I can indeed do every single thing you listed, and my conclusion holds.
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 01-18-2019, 07:45 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,925
Posted By Heywood J
In my experience that's only true for small...

In my experience that's only true for small datasets or very noisy lines of business. Above a certain point, there is really nothing you can do to keep up with the boosting methods, at least on...
Forum: Exam 8 (old Part 9) - Advanced Ratemaking 01-04-2019, 03:16 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 2,039
Posted By Heywood J
Am I reading this correctly, does it essentially...

Am I reading this correctly, does it essentially say that there are two pass marks for exams where there is a defective question? And if I am reading this right, does it mean that there are 2^n pass...
Forum: Exam 8 (old Part 9) - Advanced Ratemaking 12-30-2018, 12:02 AM
Replies: 21
Views: 1,906
Posted By Heywood J
I would say it depends on the source, and depends...

I would say it depends on the source, and depends on your learning style. I personally find it very hard to practice problems without sufficient familiarity with the "color" of material. Study...
Forum: Exam 8 (old Part 9) - Advanced Ratemaking 12-27-2018, 05:52 PM
Replies: 3,094
Views: 238,936
Posted By Heywood J
I don't think that's valid reasoning. As long as...

I don't think that's valid reasoning. As long as Z > 0, the recent 10 years will get more weight. Z just determines how much extra weight the recent 10 years get in addition to the equal weight...
Forum: Careers - Employment 12-27-2018, 02:48 PM
Replies: 316
Views: 21,128
Posted By Heywood J
I think this cynicism is a bit too far. There...

I think this cynicism is a bit too far. There are actuaries who are very good at their job, and it's hard to be good at your job if you're not passionate about it.
Forum: Exam 8 (old Part 9) - Advanced Ratemaking 12-26-2018, 03:37 PM
Replies: 3,094
Views: 238,936
Posted By Heywood J
It's absolutely CAS's fault for writing a bad...

It's absolutely CAS's fault for writing a bad exam. That's what sucks about the situation: if CAS makes a mistake, their punishment is having to write a letter with some test-taking advice, while...
Forum: Exam 8 (old Part 9) - Advanced Ratemaking 12-26-2018, 03:26 PM
Replies: 3,094
Views: 238,936
Posted By Heywood J
To use Exam 8 material for an analogy, you can't...

To use Exam 8 material for an analogy, you can't fix a model with low AUC by tinkering with the threshold, you can only trade one kind of mistake for another by doing that.
Forum: Exam 8 (old Part 9) - Advanced Ratemaking 12-26-2018, 02:00 PM
Replies: 3,094
Views: 238,936
Posted By Heywood J
It all depends on which error you're more...

It all depends on which error you're more comfortable with. If you'd rather fail a prepared candidate than pass an unprepared candidate, then bad exams will lead to lower pass ratios. You can't set...
Forum: Exam 8 (old Part 9) - Advanced Ratemaking 12-26-2018, 01:32 PM
Replies: 3,094
Views: 238,936
Posted By Heywood J
The problem is that you can't lower the pass mark...

The problem is that you can't lower the pass mark arbitrarily low. At some threshold you start having a lot of people who aren't qualified to pass (at least by absurdly high normal CAS standards),...
Forum: Exam 8 (old Part 9) - Advanced Ratemaking 12-26-2018, 01:14 PM
Replies: 3,094
Views: 238,936
Posted By Heywood J
They did make an adjustment. To have the passing...

They did make an adjustment. To have the passing mark at 65% is quite a pragmatic concession to reality, as CAS usually doesn't budge from the 70% target. The problem is that once you administer a...
Forum: Exam 8 (old Part 9) - Advanced Ratemaking 12-26-2018, 12:57 PM
Replies: 3,094
Views: 238,936
Posted By Heywood J
Just once I wish CAS wrote something like "We now...

Just once I wish CAS wrote something like "We now understand that this exam did not adequately accomplish the job of separating prepared candidates from unprepared. Unfortunately we cannot rectify...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 11-07-2018, 01:58 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 1,207
Posted By Heywood J
I don't see any pros to the binomial approach. ...

I don't see any pros to the binomial approach. You are deliberately discarding some information by censoring your claim count at 1.
Forum: Exam 8 (old Part 9) - Advanced Ratemaking 11-01-2018, 01:22 AM
Replies: 3,094
Views: 238,936
Posted By Heywood J
I can't wait for Josh's solution for #16 to...

I can't wait for Josh's solution for #16 to appear from the cache. The actual solution would probably start after a page of italics.
Forum: Exam 8 (old Part 9) - Advanced Ratemaking 10-31-2018, 01:21 AM
Replies: 69
Views: 7,280
Posted By Heywood J
It can go either way on this exam. Questions...

It can go either way on this exam. Questions written by someone with no practical understanding of the material can throw an expert for a loop just as badly as the other way around. I also often...
Forum: Exam 8 (old Part 9) - Advanced Ratemaking 10-30-2018, 05:12 PM
Replies: 3,094
Views: 238,936
Posted By Heywood J
There is no way they would budge. The best we...

There is no way they would budge. The best we can hope for is that they'll keep their curiosity about our poor performance to themselves.
Forum: Exam 8 (old Part 9) - Advanced Ratemaking 10-30-2018, 03:33 PM
Replies: 3,094
Views: 238,936
Posted By Heywood J
Agreed, this was a TBE exam administered with pen...

Agreed, this was a TBE exam administered with pen and paper. The amount of tedious calculations was off the charts.
Forum: Exam 8 (old Part 9) - Advanced Ratemaking 10-30-2018, 03:31 PM
Replies: 3,094
Views: 238,936
Posted By Heywood J
I got the results to be the same during exam...

I got the results to be the same during exam myself. I know because I wrote out the equation to solve, only to realize that I have no unknowns, and that the right side is equal the left side.
Forum: Exam 8 (old Part 9) - Advanced Ratemaking 10-30-2018, 02:22 PM
Replies: 3,094
Views: 238,936
Posted By Heywood J
I hope that's true, but how do you know that? ...

I hope that's true, but how do you know that?

In any case, even if CAS learned from their 2008 and 2011 debacles, the problem with bad exams can't be solved by adjusting the pass mark. You can...
Forum: Exam 8 (old Part 9) - Advanced Ratemaking 10-30-2018, 01:54 PM
Replies: 3,094
Views: 238,936
Posted By Heywood J
They had no problem passing 22% in 2011.

They had no problem passing 22% in 2011.
Showing results 1 to 25 of 300

 

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