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Showing results 1 to 25 of 45
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Posts Made By:
kazpandabear
Forum:
Careers  Employment
08222017, 12:54 PM
Replies:
96
Technical skills or social skills?
Views:
6,132
Posted By
kazpandabear
RN
RN
Forum:
ShortTerm Actuarial Math
08252015, 05:26 PM
Replies:
786
June 2015 Exam Thread
Views:
147,042
Posted By
kazpandabear
Got a 5. Need to start studying for October.
Got a 5. Need to start studying for October.
Forum:
Careers  Employment
08182015, 03:37 PM
Replies:
8
Question about Healthcare Data Analyst position at Milliman
Views:
1,190
Posted By
kazpandabear
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cac...
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:fY_DLffvgHIJ:careers.milliman.com/common/wireframes/CareersFloatLeft.aspx%3FPageid%3D74486%26id%3D74858&client=msandroidamericamovilus&hl=en&gl=...
Forum:
Careers  Employment
08122015, 11:01 PM
Replies:
33
Value of econometrics
Views:
2,758
Posted By
kazpandabear
Have you considered data science type jobs? I...
Have you considered data science type jobs? I have friends who finished their PhD and now works for Facebook, Amazon, ect. This is for a roughly top 20 PhD program. A lot of these places are looking...
Forum:
ShortTerm Actuarial Math
06292015, 08:47 PM
Replies:
786
June 2015 Exam Thread
Views:
147,042
Posted By
kazpandabear
Failed. Definitely wasn't as comfortable with the...
Failed. Definitely wasn't as comfortable with the material as I should have been.
Forum:
ShortTerm Actuarial Math
06282015, 01:44 PM
Replies:
2
SOA #157
Views:
485
Posted By
kazpandabear
There's two ways to find the posterior density....
There's two ways to find the posterior density. The more traditional way is to use
pi(thetax1,x2,...) = pi(theta)*f(x1,x2,...theta)/f(x1,x2,...)
This will give you the actual density formula....
Forum:
ShortTerm Actuarial Math
06272015, 10:00 PM
Replies:
2
SOA sample #296
Views:
719
Posted By
kazpandabear
Because they are 62. The question is asking for...
Because they are 62. The question is asking for the probability that the person will die while they are 61. So we don't care about what happens to people when they are 62.
Forum:
ShortTerm Actuarial Math
06252015, 10:24 PM
Replies:
2
SOA 305 #16 / Greenwoods variance
Views:
597
Posted By
kazpandabear
Same thing. Var(x) = Var(1x).
Same thing. Var(x) = Var(1x).
Forum:
ShortTerm Actuarial Math
06242015, 09:42 PM
Replies:
786
June 2015 Exam Thread
Views:
147,042
Posted By
kazpandabear
Look at the support of the distribution. ...
Look at the support of the distribution.
Theta >= 1
In a usual exponential distribution Theta >=0.
So we make a new variable x = (Theta1). The support of x is x>=0. x has a exponential...
Forum:
ShortTerm Actuarial Math
06212015, 05:03 PM
Replies:
6
Negative Binomial Formula
Views:
813
Posted By
kazpandabear
Intuitively, if you have 5 people you can choose...
Intuitively, if you have 5 people you can choose 2 people the same number of ways that you can choose (52) = 3 people.
This is because by choosing 2 people you implicitly did not choose the other...
Forum:
ShortTerm Actuarial Math
06212015, 04:57 PM
Replies:
6
Negative Binomial Formula
Views:
813
Posted By
kazpandabear
nCr = nC(nr) Proof: nCr = n!/[r!*(nr)!]...
nCr = nC(nr)
Proof:
nCr = n!/[r!*(nr)!] This is the usual definition
nC(nr) = n!/[(nr)!*(n(nr))!] = n!/[(nr)!*r!]
Hope that helps.
And for the NB n+k1 C k is correct.
Forum:
ShortTerm Actuarial Math
06202015, 03:06 AM
Replies:
7
Limit of LER
Views:
784
Posted By
kazpandabear
Ya I thought I saw an easier way, but I was...
Ya I thought I saw an easier way, but I was taking the derivative wrong.
Forum:
ShortTerm Actuarial Math
06192015, 11:28 PM
Replies:
7
Limit of LER
Views:
784
Posted By
kazpandabear
Actually on a exam I would have just plugged a...
Actually on a exam I would have just plugged a large number into k and hoped for the best. You can plug in 999 for x and get really close to the correct answer.
Forum:
ShortTerm Actuarial Math
06192015, 11:27 PM
Replies:
7
Limit of LER
Views:
784
Posted By
kazpandabear
You can use the limit definition of e. ...
You can use the limit definition of e.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Characterizations_of_the_exponential_function
I would have never gotten that on a exam. Where is the question from?
Forum:
Careers  Employment
06182015, 07:53 PM
Replies:
572
Elements of Statistical Learning
Views:
58,206
Posted By
kazpandabear
Is the ESL book self contained, or does it assume...
Is the ESL book self contained, or does it assume that you read ISLR?
Forum:
Careers  Employment
06182015, 07:38 PM
Replies:
572
Elements of Statistical Learning
Views:
58,206
Posted By
kazpandabear
I think if you assume E(\epsilon)=0 then ...
I think if you assume
E(\epsilon)=0 then
Var(\epsilon)=E(\epsilon^2)
E(Y\hat{Y})^2=E[f(X)\hat{f}(X)]^2+\text{Var}(\epsilon)
All other terms drop out since E(\epsilon)=0
Not sure how you...
Forum:
ShortTerm Actuarial Math
06172015, 05:06 PM
Replies:
8
Closed Form Density for Negative Binomial
Views:
1,247
Posted By
kazpandabear
I figured out why they use an unusual...
I figured out why they use an unusual parameterization. Pretty sure that it's just so that the form is simple when dealing with poisson, gamma conjugate priors. This way the posterior gamma and the...
Forum:
ShortTerm Actuarial Math
06092015, 02:55 PM
Replies:
6
Would Mahler exams add any value over just using ADAPT?
Views:
990
Posted By
kazpandabear
The first 1 is free on his site.
The first 1 is free on his site.
Forum:
Careers  Employment
06082015, 09:57 PM
Replies:
35
Chances of Getting an Entry Level Job
Views:
8,101
Posted By
kazpandabear
I know this would be just as anecdotal, but would...
I know this would be just as anecdotal, but would passing a 4th exam set a candidate apart enough in your eyes so that they have a decent probability of an interview?
Forum:
ShortTerm Actuarial Math
06062015, 07:39 PM
Replies:
786
June 2015 Exam Thread
Views:
147,042
Posted By
kazpandabear
The formula you used is for the "number of claims...
The formula you used is for the "number of claims needed for full credibility of aggregate losses". What the problem asks for is the number of insured needed.
#insured * E(N) = #claims...
Forum:
ShortTerm Actuarial Math
06042015, 07:18 PM
Replies:
8
Application of Credibility Question
Views:
954
Posted By
kazpandabear
By using credibility we are saying that we know...
By using credibility we are saying that we know what x is for the population. We have some group that might be different from the population. If the sample size is large enough we can say that we...
Forum:
ShortTerm Actuarial Math
06042015, 07:12 PM
Replies:
8
Application of Credibility Question
Views:
954
Posted By
kazpandabear
I think by taking the weighted average and using...
I think by taking the weighted average and using that value you are implicitly assuming that Cohort 1 and Cohort 2 have the same rate or are similar in characteristics. If that's not the assumption...
Forum:
ShortTerm Actuarial Math
06022015, 05:01 PM
Replies:
8
Closed Form Density for Negative Binomial
Views:
1,247
Posted By
kazpandabear
B=p/(1p) (1p)^r * p^k = ((B^k) /...
B=p/(1p)
(1p)^r * p^k = ((B^k) / (1+B)^(r+k))
The term in front doesn't change. It just looks messy with how it's written in the tables.
Anyone have any intuition on how to interpret B (in...
Forum:
NonActuarial Topics
05282015, 10:04 PM
Replies:
201
Poll:
Do you like Colonel Smoothie?
Views:
7,154
Posted By
kazpandabear
Why did you only post half of the comic? ...
Why did you only post half of the comic?
http://theoatmeal.com/comics/angler
Forum:
ShortTerm Actuarial Math
05272015, 12:41 AM
Replies:
4
Any syllabus changes since ASM 14th edition 3rd printing??
Views:
956
Posted By
kazpandabear
I'm using the 11th edition. With the supplement I...
I'm using the 11th edition. With the supplement I think it's pretty good. That said I'm just reading it and not doing any exercises. The errata is huge for this edition though. If I were to do it...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 45
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