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Showing results 1 to 25 of 300
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Search: Posts Made By: Lucy
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics Yesterday, 03:47 PM
Replies: 5,003
Views: 308,732
Posted By Lucy
I can't convince you the data isn't biased,...

I can't convince you the data isn't biased, because I suspect it is, too. But I expect some of it is a real decrease in flu, since that has a shorter incubation period than covid but is spread in...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics Yesterday, 03:06 PM
Replies: 5,003
Views: 308,732
Posted By Lucy
:iatp: The line between politics and...

:iatp:

The line between politics and relevant facts is blurry, and the worst that's gonna happen if the mods think you drifted too far in good faith is that some posts will be moved or deleted,...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics Yesterday, 12:57 PM
Replies: 5,003
Views: 308,732
Posted By Lucy
Yeah :( I get the desire to hoard what you have,...

Yeah :( I get the desire to hoard what you have, but we live in an interconnected world. We are still buying masks from China, Canada is still buying ventilators from us. The "fix" is to ramp up...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics Yesterday, 10:38 AM
Replies: 7
Views: 159
Posted By Lucy
:(

:(
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics Yesterday, 08:26 AM
Replies: 5,003
Views: 308,732
Posted By Lucy
Broken link? I bumped one relevant thread,...

Broken link?

I bumped one relevant thread, about economics and peak unemployment
http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showthread.php?t=347194

And started another, more...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics Yesterday, 08:04 AM
Replies: 5,003
Views: 308,732
Posted By Lucy
This and several following posts are good...

This and several following posts are good discussion, but i think are better suited to the thread in political of the economic impacts of the virus.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics Yesterday, 08:03 AM
Replies: 5,003
Views: 308,732
Posted By Lucy
Yeah, I'd love to see all those numbers as a...

Yeah, I'd love to see all those numbers as a percent of the total people in each bucket.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-02-2020, 11:24 PM
Replies: 5,003
Views: 308,732
Posted By Lucy
It's true that this is the first real trauma for...

It's true that this is the first real trauma for kids. But this is the most significant traumatic event in my life, and on 9/11, I had only recently moved out of NYC, and still had a lot of friends...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-02-2020, 09:48 PM
Replies: 5,003
Views: 308,732
Posted By Lucy
I've seen that, but each step is quite variable. ...

I've seen that, but each step is quite variable.

exposure --> (typically 4-5 days, but possibly 2-20 days)
symptoms, and your innate immune systems starts to fight the bug -->
(about 5-7 days)...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-02-2020, 08:28 PM
Replies: 5,003
Views: 308,732
Posted By Lucy
We need an antibody test. Ideally one you can...

We need an antibody test. Ideally one you can order by mail, like a home pregnancy test. We need medical professionals to give up some of their control over diagnosis and treatment, too.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-02-2020, 04:33 PM
Replies: 5,003
Views: 308,732
Posted By Lucy
The risk of catching something in the maternity...

The risk of catching something in the maternity ward was pretty low until recently. The risk of catching something on the way to the maternity ward was also low until recently. It's a lot higher now....
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-02-2020, 01:31 PM
Replies: 5,003
Views: 308,732
Posted By Lucy
Of course! And most women were anxious about...

Of course! And most women were anxious about giving birth then. There's a prayer Jews are supposed to say when they survive mortal danger, and after giving birth was one of the times they said it.
...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-02-2020, 01:27 PM
Replies: 5,003
Views: 308,732
Posted By Lucy
Yeah. Speaking as someone who has been wearing...

Yeah. Speaking as someone who has been wearing face masks from time to time for a while (for reasons I don't want to get into) it's really dumb to say, "it will make you touch your face." I mean,...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-02-2020, 12:54 PM
Replies: 5,003
Views: 308,732
Posted By Lucy
Congrats! Pregnancy is an...

Congrats!

Pregnancy is an immune-compromising condition -- basically, the mother's immune system is tamped down so it doesn't kill the fetus. (And the problem with rH incompatibility is that the...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-02-2020, 12:41 PM
Replies: 5,003
Views: 308,732
Posted By Lucy
Huh? I had to beg my husband to come with me. And...

Huh? I had to beg my husband to come with me. And most cultures don't allow the husband (or often, any men at all) to attend the actual birth. Including the US not all that long ago.
Yeah, that's...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-02-2020, 10:57 AM
Replies: 973
Views: 49,725
Posted By Lucy
peanut butter and jelly on home made bread....

peanut butter and jelly on home made bread. Rickie pulled out that bread machine we haven't used in years.

(Yes, we bought both flour and yeast. The flour at the start of this, along with rice and...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-02-2020, 09:48 AM
Replies: 5,003
Views: 308,732
Posted By Lucy
I would be so freaking terrified if I were...

I would be so freaking terrified if I were pregnant right now.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-02-2020, 07:55 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 435
Posted By Lucy
Old buildings need a lot of repairs a pipe dies,...

Old buildings need a lot of repairs a pipe dies, and is hard to get at, and the rest of the plumbing doesn't meet current code. It might have knob and tube wiring. Mice chewed a hole in some siding...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-02-2020, 07:24 AM
Replies: 51
Views: 1,496
Posted By Lucy
If we drop all restrictions the rate will bounce...

If we drop all restrictions the rate will bounce back up. I'm sure we haven't reached the point of "most everyone already had it", and won't by the end of April.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-02-2020, 07:20 AM
Replies: 5,003
Views: 308,732
Posted By Lucy
Oh, good point. I'll see if i can get a full mod...

Oh, good point. I'll see if i can get a full mod to move some on those posts.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-02-2020, 07:15 AM
Replies: 51
Views: 1,496
Posted By Lucy
Are you guessing we will still be locked down, or...

Are you guessing we will still be locked down, or that "let's all gather with a group of people we aren't all that friendly with" won't seem appealing?

I think the latter is reasonably likely. I...
Forum: General Actuarial 04-02-2020, 07:12 AM
Replies: 110
Views: 13,925
Posted By Lucy
They don't know. They don't know how this will...

They don't know. They don't know how this will play out. They don't know when it will be safe to administer an exam. They don't know when they will be able to muster the resources to administer an...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-01-2020, 10:09 PM
Replies: 5,003
Views: 308,732
Posted By Lucy
US deaths are still marching upwards at a steep...

US deaths are still marching upwards at a steep clip, but I'm cautiously optimistic that the number of new case per day may be slowing down.
Forum: Surveys 04-01-2020, 09:35 PM
Replies: 39
Views: 1,992
Posted By Lucy
Can't help ya. My eyebrows have always been kinda...

Can't help ya. My eyebrows have always been kinda thin, but well-behaved. I, too, would think that tweezers would be an easy fix for a handful of awkward stray eyebrow hairs, though.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-01-2020, 09:26 PM
Replies: 5,003
Views: 308,732
Posted By Lucy
Eh, I was going to say more, but the article says...

Eh, I was going to say more, but the article says most of what I wanted to say, including that pretty much every infectious disease is dose-dependant, and that this is well known.
Showing results 1 to 25 of 300

 

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