Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Search Forums
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions

DW Simpson Global Actuarial & Analytics Recruitment
Download our Actuarial Salary Survey
now with state-by-state salary information!


Showing results 1 to 25 of 300
Search took 0.21 seconds.
Search: Posts Made By: Cloister
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-29-2020, 12:14 PM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
The number over 1.0 bottomed out a few days ago. ...

The number over 1.0 bottomed out a few days ago. The current update has 11 states over 1.0 (barely for most of them though).
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-23-2020, 10:52 AM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
It’s the first wave continuing to spread out from...

It’s the first wave continuing to spread out from NY.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-22-2020, 05:08 PM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
The bigger issue I have is that at the time I...

The bigger issue I have is that at the time I don't recall much (if any) transparency around the models they were using to come up with their resource need estimates. Once public models started...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-21-2020, 12:08 AM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
Yep - about the size of a dime.

Yep - about the size of a dime.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-18-2020, 03:47 PM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
"Require" is a bit strong. The actual directive...

"Require" is a bit strong. The actual directive I've seen reads:

"Individuals are strongly urged to comply with this Directive. There is no criminal, civil, or financial penalty for failing to...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-14-2020, 11:56 AM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
This is interesting - speaking solely for myself...

This is interesting - speaking solely for myself (so sample size of 1), if I see a cyclist without a helmet I think I automatically assume they're more likely to veer or do some other stupid thing so...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-14-2020, 09:33 AM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
Early figures suggested the COVID mortality...

Early figures suggested the COVID mortality distribution by age was similar to the usual overall mortality distribution. I haven’t seen anything recent on that though.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-12-2020, 08:10 PM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
The herd immunity level is the break even point....

The herd immunity level is the break even point. If R0 is 3, then at the start of the epidemic each infected person passes it to 3 more people. Once 2/3 have been infected (1-1/R0), then on average 2...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-11-2020, 11:58 AM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
My last trip to Costco social distancing was...

My last trip to Costco social distancing was pretty good - except in the fresh meat area. Total madness there.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-08-2020, 10:56 AM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
We’ll have to wait for the excess deaths data,...

We’ll have to wait for the excess deaths data, but that lags a few weeks.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-07-2020, 06:53 PM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
It's been steadily moving out from NY/NJ. CT,...

It's been steadily moving out from NY/NJ. CT, MA, and PA all have had big numbers come in. More recently been IL, IN, and over to MD. Now seems to be driving into the next tier - WI, IA, etc. ...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-01-2020, 06:21 PM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
The low end wasn’t lower than deaths as of their...

The low end wasn’t lower than deaths as of their data evaluation date. But it was ludicrously low and overtaken in 1 or 2 days. The curve they’re fitting to just has a much too rapid decline rate -...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-30-2020, 03:28 PM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
I don't think anything was ever made public as to...

I don't think anything was ever made public as to how the 30K figure was arrived at (just references to McKinsey and maybe other consultants). I also don't recall ever hearing whether it was...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-30-2020, 12:21 PM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
I think the figures for prior dates (deaths, ICU...

I think the figures for prior dates (deaths, ICU beds, etc.) are supposed to be the actual amounts. If that's true and they have accurate data then it should be a pretty good number.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-30-2020, 11:52 AM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
It's nearly impossible to say. The IHME model is...

It's nearly impossible to say. The IHME model is explicitly a wave 1 model for reported COVID deaths only. Wave 2 is about to get started as various states start to loosen SD measures. I'm...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-29-2020, 10:57 PM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
IHME is up to 72K. We’ll probably blow through...

IHME is up to 72K. We’ll probably blow through that by Mother’s Day.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-29-2020, 08:20 PM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
If the IHME figures are correct, peak ventilator...

If the IHME figures are correct, peak ventilator need for NY was around 6,000 in early April.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-29-2020, 06:42 PM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
I still think the early nursing home outbreak...

I still think the early nursing home outbreak near Seattle ended up being a great big fakeout that spurred an early response on the west coast. Meanwhile the real problem was brewing in NY but wasn’t...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-28-2020, 08:02 PM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
Absolutely. But 1.2 would hopefully be low...

Absolutely. But 1.2 would hopefully be low enough to allow for time to respond
with stricter measures before case loads get out of control. I don't expect that states will be able to nail the...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-28-2020, 03:37 PM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
It's so too late for that. It's pretty easy to...

It's so too late for that. It's pretty easy to see how it's been spreading geographically - look at the deaths per capita. NY/NJ was the epicenter. After that, Mass. and Conn. Next group is...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-28-2020, 02:58 PM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
It's the "not good transmission vector" part I...

It's the "not good transmission vector" part I have a hard time with. It'd be awesome if that could be true, but seems more likely they'd just be spreading it around and bringing it into every home.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-27-2020, 07:32 PM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
Problem likely is that the consumer supply chain...

Problem likely is that the consumer supply chain may not have the capacity to quickly increase their packaging operations, and the restaurant/commercial supply chain may not be able to quickly adjust...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-27-2020, 04:21 PM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
Yeah, retail and commercial supply chains are...

Yeah, retail and commercial supply chains are quite separate. You now have some restaurants acting as middlemen between commercial restaurants suppliers and their customers as they can get bulk...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-22-2020, 03:00 PM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
I'll be (pleasantly) surprised if we haven't...

I'll be (pleasantly) surprised if we haven't broken through 65K by Mother's Day.

Though I guess IHME has it close to 65K by then, with almost nothing thereafter (under their assumptions on SD...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-21-2020, 12:30 PM
Replies: 9,688
Views: 754,658
Posted By Cloister
First results from the Seattle SCAN community...

First results from the Seattle SCAN community testing project. Self selected sample, so obvious potential bias issues. Main results are very low incidence rate, and basically no asymptomatic cases....
Showing results 1 to 25 of 300

 

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:49 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.82393 seconds with 7 queries