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Search: Posts Made By: therealsylvos
Forum: Sports Yesterday, 04:08 PM
Replies: 141
Views: 9,851
Posted By therealsylvos
Mmm noithing goes along with success quite like...

Mmm noithing goes along with success quite like schadenfreude.

:therethere: wat?
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 02-13-2019, 06:45 PM
Replies: 17,363
Views: 735,867
Posted By therealsylvos
I got another pass at pidgey. This time for a...

I got another pass at pidgey. This time for a Thursday at 2 PM :roll:

Rather annoying.
Forum: Sports 02-13-2019, 06:37 PM
Replies: 141
Views: 9,851
Posted By therealsylvos
Not that strange. Lucas and Son both have filled...

Not that strange. Lucas and Son both have filled in at Striker when Kane wasn't playing. Rose got injured earlier in the week, and Davies has been injured for a few weeks. Vertonghen has played at...
Forum: Sports 02-13-2019, 06:32 PM
Replies: 141
Views: 9,851
Posted By therealsylvos
Kane and Alli, and Davies and Trippier and Rose....

Kane and Alli, and Davies and Trippier and Rose. But Dortmund were arguably worse off with Injuries missing their best player and captain Reus, and first choice striker Alcacer, among others.
Forum: Sports 02-13-2019, 06:29 PM
Replies: 141
Views: 9,851
Posted By therealsylvos
Busy at work all afternoon, so wasn't even able...

Busy at work all afternoon, so wasn't even able to follow along the match thread, but yea huge result! Gonna try and rewatch extended highlights tonight.
Forum: Sports 02-12-2019, 07:43 PM
Replies: 278
Views: 19,356
Posted By therealsylvos
You posted that Spurs are 8-1 when Dele doesn't...

You posted that Spurs are 8-1 when Dele doesn't play. I responded that we're also 4-0 when Kane doesn't. If you don't think that stat suggest Kane is "disappointing", then I don't see why you would...
Forum: Exam 6 US (old Part 7U) 02-12-2019, 10:55 AM
Replies: 253
Views: 21,284
Posted By therealsylvos
Yea, now it's still in paranthesis as (statutory...

Yea, now it's still in paranthesis as (statutory page 14) it's useful to refer to that so regulators don't have to update data submission requirements every time something gets shuffled around. I...
Forum: Sports 02-12-2019, 09:57 AM
Replies: 141
Views: 9,851
Posted By therealsylvos
Champions League is back today! Here's...

Champions League is back today!

Here's season one of the Champions btw: https://youtu.be/fQVM0o8EJp4
Forum: Exam 7 (new) - Estimation of Policy Liability & ERM 02-11-2019, 05:32 PM
Replies: 843
Views: 52,773
Posted By therealsylvos
Ah, so kind of like Robbin for exam 9. Fair...

Ah, so kind of like Robbin for exam 9. Fair enough, though this still feels like there could be a theoritical justification one way or the other.
Forum: Exam 7 (new) - Estimation of Policy Liability & ERM 02-11-2019, 05:26 PM
Replies: 843
Views: 52,773
Posted By therealsylvos
Thanks, not a bad way to keep in straight in my...

Thanks, not a bad way to keep in straight in my head, but it still seems fairly arbitrary to me. Choosing an ultimate and choosing a reserve amounts to the same thing really.
Forum: Sports 02-11-2019, 04:59 PM
Replies: 278
Views: 19,356
Posted By therealsylvos
I mean your argument boils down to "look at this...

I mean your argument boils down to "look at this tiny sampling of form and draw an unwarranted conclusion based on it." Unless you want to double down and say we should drop Kane, I'm not really sure...
Forum: Sports 02-11-2019, 02:58 PM
Replies: 278
Views: 19,356
Posted By therealsylvos
And? The one place we have depth is in midfield....

And? The one place we have depth is in midfield. We play a high pressing system and all our midfielders do a crapload of running up and down the pitch. When he's getting substituted it's usually when...
Forum: Sports 02-11-2019, 02:45 PM
Replies: 278
Views: 19,356
Posted By therealsylvos
"Let's play a suicidally high-line with the...

"Let's play a suicidally high-line with the slowest Center-backs in the Premier league, I see no possible downside"
Forum: Sports 02-11-2019, 10:20 AM
Replies: 278
Views: 19,356
Posted By therealsylvos
Lol, have you watched Dele at all this season?...

Lol, have you watched Dele at all this season? He's been excellent he's become a true box-to-box mid. While we won yesterday, that took a fair amount of luck. We easily could have lost.
Forum: Exam 7 (new) - Estimation of Policy Liability & ERM 02-10-2019, 09:06 PM
Replies: 843
Views: 52,773
Posted By therealsylvos
We multiply the OLP by the Untruncated growth...

We multiply the OLP by the Untruncated growth curve to determine the ELR. But when we calculate the reserve we use the truncated growth curve*OLP*ELR
Forum: Exam 7 (new) - Estimation of Policy Liability & ERM 02-10-2019, 08:16 PM
Replies: 843
Views: 52,773
Posted By therealsylvos
Also what possible reason does Clark have to not...

Also what possible reason does Clark have to not truncate the Growth curve when calculating used-up premiums for the ELR, but truncate it for the reserves? That's just a straight up inconsistency?...
Forum: Exam 7 (new) - Estimation of Policy Liability & ERM 02-10-2019, 07:45 PM
Replies: 843
Views: 52,773
Posted By therealsylvos
Yea it's the different methods of truncation that...

Yea it's the different methods of truncation that is throwing me for a loop.

Assume the CDF at 114 is .922 that means the LDF is 1.085. At 54 its .796 -> LDF 1.256

If we truncate at 114 in the...
Forum: Exam 7 (new) - Estimation of Policy Liability & ERM 02-10-2019, 07:20 PM
Replies: 843
Views: 52,773
Posted By therealsylvos
Hm I guess I can kind of wrap my head around it,...

Hm I guess I can kind of wrap my head around it, but not fully. When truncating the LDF, we try to keep the reporting lag the same. In the cape Cod, we just keep the unreported % the same. This is...
Forum: Exam 7 (new) - Estimation of Policy Liability & ERM 02-10-2019, 07:09 PM
Replies: 843
Views: 52,773
Posted By therealsylvos
Why does Clark treat the truncation of the Growth...

Why does Clark treat the truncation of the Growth curve differently if we're doing LDF or Cape Cod method?
Forum: Exam 7 (new) - Estimation of Policy Liability & ERM 02-10-2019, 05:43 PM
Replies: 843
Views: 52,773
Posted By therealsylvos
So Michael doesn't think the CAS would ask us...

So Michael doesn't think the CAS would ask us about the Information Matrix and the parameter variance...For some reason I don't feel quite as confident
Forum: Exam 7 (new) - Estimation of Policy Liability & ERM 02-10-2019, 05:38 PM
Replies: 843
Views: 52,773
Posted By therealsylvos
Oh joy, apparently we need to memorize the CDF of...

Oh joy, apparently we need to memorize the CDF of a Weibull and Loglogistic distribution, because that's apparently an important part of being an actuary :roll:
Forum: Exam 7 (new) - Estimation of Policy Liability & ERM 02-10-2019, 05:30 PM
Replies: 843
Views: 52,773
Posted By therealsylvos
Actually I'm not understanding that formula. Why...

Actually I'm not understanding that formula. Why is it n - P in the denominator?
Forum: Exam 7 (new) - Estimation of Policy Liability & ERM 02-10-2019, 05:27 PM
Replies: 843
Views: 52,773
Posted By therealsylvos
We really need a unifying text to clean up all...

We really need a unifying text to clean up all this notation. Clark is the only paper in my entire colle + actuarial career where I've ever seen \sigma^2 not mean "variance".
Forum: Sports 02-10-2019, 05:18 PM
Replies: 278
Views: 19,356
Posted By therealsylvos
All of a sudden City's GD is 10 higher than...

All of a sudden City's GD is 10 higher than Liverpool. Can't remember the last time we saw such a bare bottom spanking between top 6 sides (probably involved City and Spurs pre Poch). It was only two...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 02-07-2019, 11:46 PM
Replies: 150
Views: 3,943
Posted By therealsylvos
I'll buy your shares imo. What the ****...

I'll buy your shares imo.

What the **** does 70 billion dollars mean when you already have 70 billion. He could literally light it on fire and live his life the exact same way. With that much...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 300

 

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