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Search: Posts Made By: Abraham Weishaus
Forum: MAS-I 10-09-2019, 09:06 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 249
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Check the errata.

Check the errata.
Forum: MAS-I 10-04-2019, 05:33 PM
Replies: 186
Views: 30,576
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Depends. If m=10, then the mean is 6. If m=1,...

Depends. If m=10, then the mean is 6. If m=1, then the mean is 0.6.
Forum: MAS-I 10-04-2019, 07:47 AM
Replies: 186
Views: 30,576
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
The 2 losses are for amounts above 25000. If...

The 2 losses are for amounts above 25000. If there were no deductible, their likelihoodx would be S(25000). However, due to the deductible, you receive no information about losses below 1000, so...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 10-02-2019, 08:30 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 487
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
There is no such thing as premium by AY. AY is...

There is no such thing as premium by AY. AY is only for accidents. Loss payments are categorized based on the year of the underlying accident. They may also be categorized by calendar year, but...
Forum: MAS-I 09-17-2019, 05:09 PM
Replies: 186
Views: 30,576
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Yes. I'm going to remove the smoothing part from...

Yes. I'm going to remove the smoothing part from the question. The original exam question based on the textbook used then used a simpler smoothing method - they had 10 observations, with the first...
Forum: MAS-I 09-17-2019, 05:05 PM
Replies: 186
Views: 30,576
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Yes, .6 quantile = 60 percentile. Divide your...

Yes, .6 quantile = 60 percentile. Divide your percentile number by 100 to get the corresponding quantile.


I should divide, not multiply: k/(n+1) quantile. I'll post an erratum.
Forum: MAS-I 09-05-2019, 12:46 PM
Replies: 186
Views: 30,576
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Don't thank me - thank Klugman and the other...

Don't thank me - thank Klugman and the other authors of Loss Models for their method. I understand Tse's logic, but a method that sets the median of {1,1,3,3,5,5) equal to 2.5 rather than 3 strikes...
Forum: MAS-I 09-04-2019, 04:47 PM
Replies: 186
Views: 30,576
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
This smoothing method, from Tse's textbook, is...

This smoothing method, from Tse's textbook, is slightly different from the one in Loss Models (and described in the ASM manual). Since MAS-I is purely based on Tse and not Loss Models, I will post...
Forum: MAS-I 09-03-2019, 08:58 PM
Replies: 186
Views: 30,576
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
The question asks for the smoothed empirical...

The question asks for the smoothed empirical percentile, and that is 11.625 - read the textbook to see how smoothed empirical percentile is defined. 12 is the 75th percentile of the empirical...
Forum: MAS-I 09-03-2019, 08:52 PM
Replies: 186
Views: 30,576
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Read the "Tables" section in the introduction of...

Read the "Tables" section in the introduction of the ASM manual. Or if you wish, download an old MAS-I exam and read the second bullet of item #4 of the exam instructions. A little weird that they...
Forum: MAS-I 08-05-2019, 05:58 PM
Replies: 186
Views: 30,576
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Where is the solution assuming that?

Where is the solution assuming that?
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 08-04-2019, 07:34 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 607
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
OK, that's not a good way to prove it. Here's a...

OK, that's not a good way to prove it. Here's a better way.
e_Z(d(1+r))= E[Z-d(1+r)|Z>d(1+r)]
Now Z>d(1+r) if and only if X>d, so this is
e_Z(d(1+r))=E[Z-d(1+r)|X>d]
But...
Forum: MAS-I 07-27-2019, 10:29 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 857
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
The links in the ASM manual to all the old exams...

The links in the ASM manual to all the old exams still work, so they're all stored on the CAS site. Most of the links are of the form www.casact.org/ admissions/ studytools/ exam3/ spyy-3.pdf...
Forum: MAS-I 07-24-2019, 09:30 PM
Replies: 186
Views: 30,576
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Well, since the first paragraph of The...

Well, since the first paragraph of The Disreputable Dog's post is taken from Ross page 651 which is on the MAS-I syllabus, I would say that the method is on the MAS-I syllabus.


But I agree that...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 07-20-2019, 10:49 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 687
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Effective date of the rate change, not effective...

Effective date of the rate change, not effective date of the policy. Usually the date the policy is issued isn't called the effective date, it's called something else, like "issue date". But I can...
Forum: MAS-I 07-14-2019, 01:39 PM
Replies: 186
Views: 30,576
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Yes, #1 and #3 are errors on my part. And you...

Yes, #1 and #3 are errors on my part. And you have gone through Ross's derivation in #2 so you should get the same result.
Forum: MAS-I 07-09-2019, 06:07 PM
Replies: 186
Views: 30,576
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Yes. With modern computers using lots of...

Yes. With modern computers using lots of precision, the probability of 0 is infinitesimal, so it hardly makes a difference, but that is the reason Ross prefers the second method.
Forum: MAS-I 07-09-2019, 12:53 PM
Replies: 186
Views: 30,576
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
In practice most computer random number...

In practice most computer random number generators can generate 0 but will never generate 1. That's why Ross is the preferred option.
Forum: MAS-I 07-06-2019, 10:30 PM
Replies: 186
Views: 30,576
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
Can you be more specific of what you think is...

Can you be more specific of what you think is wrong? For example, what labeling do you expect in Figure 17.7?
Forum: Long-Term Actuarial Math 07-03-2019, 08:40 AM
Replies: 7
Views: 789
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
You must distinguish between joint probability...

You must distinguish between joint probability and conditional probability. Recall from probability the formula \Pr(A\mid B)=\frac{\Pr(A\cap B)}{Pr(B)
Q 10.2 is asking for a conditional...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 07-01-2019, 06:08 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 1,102
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
And it's not the wording in the ASM manual either.

And it's not the wording in the ASM manual either.
Forum: MAS-I 06-23-2019, 03:19 PM
Replies: 186
Views: 30,576
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
For such a short question (4 years), the...

For such a short question (4 years), the recursive formula doesn't save you much work. And while the CAS occasionally asks off-syllabus questions, I doubt they would ever ask a question on variance...
Forum: Long-Term Actuarial Math 05-17-2019, 04:34 PM
Replies: 749
Views: 135,956
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
I agree with the PAK on all multiple choice...

I agree with the PAK on all multiple choice questions.
Forum: Statistics for Risk Modeling 05-16-2019, 09:02 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 5,190
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
See the first page of Lesson 20: "The...

See the first page of Lesson 20: "The coefficients \beta_0 and \beta_1 may be estimated using the method of conditional least squares, which is simply regression ... ".
Forum: Statistics for Risk Modeling 05-16-2019, 08:58 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 5,190
Posted By Abraham Weishaus
As the ASM manual says, they don't give you a...

As the ASM manual says, they don't give you a table with critical values for F, making F questions less likely.
Simple linear regression? That's the square root of formula (3.8).
Showing results 1 to 25 of 300

 

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