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Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 02-15-2020, 02:48 PM
Replies: 75
Views: 7,802
Congratulations on getting there. I'm not sure...

Congratulations on getting there. I'm not sure exactly what the tax rules are for hedging deferred comp so this might not work, also depending on how high up you are in the organization, you might...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 02-01-2020, 08:29 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 720
You used the word "optimal" in your question. ...

You used the word "optimal" in your question.

What are you trying to "optimize"?
Forum: MAS-II 01-27-2020, 08:54 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 361
It's probably easier to think about it...

It's probably easier to think about it geometrically.

PCA is a dimension reduction technique. Suppose that you have a data set with three variables.

Your data looks like (X+noise1,...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 01-14-2020, 02:33 PM
Replies: 690
Views: 72,262
I seem to recall an online bookstore with a...

I seem to recall an online bookstore with a similar story....
Forum: Software & Technology 01-12-2020, 04:00 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 697
What are replicants?[/QUOTE] In context,...

What are replicants?[/QUOTE]

In context, replicants can potentially create an inconsistent system of equations. So, instead of a true solution, we seek an approximate solutions, typically using...
Forum: Software & Technology 01-12-2020, 03:56 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 697
Observations that have identical predictors. For...

Observations that have identical predictors. For example, if you have two drivers that are MALE-16-DRIVERSED-SPORTSCAR one with 3 accidents and one with only 2, you'll never perfectly fit if you are...
Forum: Software & Technology 01-12-2020, 02:22 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 697
No. The saturated model is the best fit...

No. The saturated model is the best fit possible, not a perfect fit. These two ideas can be different when there are replicants.
Forum: Careers - Employment 01-09-2020, 02:33 PM
Replies: 108
Views: 6,654
I get paid to take good risks. My real value is...

I get paid to take good risks. My real value is when I say "No."
Forum: Careers - Employment 01-09-2020, 02:27 PM
Replies: 108
Views: 6,654
Like I used to tell my boss, "Remember that $20...

Like I used to tell my boss, "Remember that $20 Million loss we had last year on the XYZ account? No? Well that's because we didn't write that account --- that's why you pay me what you do."
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 01-05-2020, 11:55 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 698
I'm not so sure about that. If you sell...

I'm not so sure about that. If you sell Bag-o-Glass, you might well have some exposure even if you didn't manufacture it.
Forum: Course 2 - Insurance Accounting/Law/Regulation 12-25-2019, 10:47 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 267
Look at the last part of what you quoted. If a...

Look at the last part of what you quoted. If a short (in say, the A/C) occurs, we won't pay for the A/C, but if the damage spreads (say, via fire) to other components (say, the fan assembly) we'll...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 12-20-2019, 02:21 PM
Replies: 690
Views: 72,262
420

Say! How's that TSLA short workin' out for ya?
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 12-16-2019, 02:46 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 687
Edited to correct subject/verb disagreement.

Edited to correct subject/verb disagreement.
Forum: General Actuarial 12-14-2019, 02:00 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 3,467
V(X) = E(X^2)-E(X)^2

V(X) = E(X^2)-E(X)^2
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 12-11-2019, 12:02 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 1,154
But the direction will almost always be the same.

But the direction will almost always be the same.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 12-11-2019, 11:33 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 1,154
Why would FX be diversifiable? If I'm in one...

Why would FX be diversifiable? If I'm in one foreign currency or a million, if the dollar goes up, I have a loss.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-10-2019, 10:40 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 667
Depends upon sample size. Suppose that there were...

Depends upon sample size. Suppose that there were 10^100 observations. the variance would be almost 0 regardless of the true model (assuming mean = 1000) This is the Law of Large Numbers.

There...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-10-2019, 10:31 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 886
Look, if I measure temperature in F and determine...

Look, if I measure temperature in F and determine that I should bring my plants in, but when I measure the temperature in C, on the same day, and decide that I should leave them out, then you should...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-10-2019, 09:04 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 886
1) Yes, you always want all lower order effects. ...

1) Yes, you always want all lower order effects. If you fail to include these, bad things happen. For example: the best model using Celsius degrees will be different that the best model using...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 12-10-2019, 08:38 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 836
Let's look just at #2 below: Suppose that...

Let's look just at #2 below:


Suppose that we are estimating the vote count for president in the 2020 election --- our target variable is specifically Trump's vote count.

This is clearly a...
Forum: Careers-Employment: United Kingdom / Europe 12-04-2019, 02:01 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 10,272
das K÷chchen

das K÷chchen
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 11-26-2019, 09:55 PM
Replies: 201
Views: 5,569
You are simply clueless, aren't you.

You are simply clueless, aren't you.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 11-26-2019, 07:58 PM
Replies: 201
Views: 5,569
:lolup: "Huge" :lolup::lolup:

:lolup:

"Huge" :lolup::lolup:
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 11-24-2019, 06:26 PM
Replies: 690
Views: 72,262
Why should a buyer care if it's a good deal for...

Why should a buyer care if it's a good deal for Tesla? The buyer is getting essentially a free option, as I said.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 11-24-2019, 06:13 PM
Replies: 690
Views: 72,262
Yes, and that deposit is $100; at current...

Yes, and that deposit is $100; at current interest rates I can see how that would be a deal breaker for many.
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