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Search: Posts Made By: daaaave
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 05-14-2019, 12:12 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 843
Posted By daaaave
You probably want to look under wherever they...

You probably want to look under wherever they cover ILFs. The point is that in computing the pure premium for the 250,000 limit, we want to use only data coming from policies with a limit of at least...
Forum: MAS-II 05-02-2019, 12:00 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 2,726
Posted By daaaave
I think by this you are thinking their expression...

I think by this you are thinking their expression becomes
\sigma_i = (\alpha + \beta x_i)^2 + 1
Is that what you are saying?

The problem with that is that the link function has to be a...
Forum: MAS-II 04-30-2019, 04:58 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 2,726
Posted By daaaave
I've updated my solution file above to correct a...

I've updated my solution file above to correct a mistake I made in # 38.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-29-2019, 11:08 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 402
Posted By daaaave
No, a mixture of 2 normals isn't normal. For a...

No, a mixture of 2 normals isn't normal. For a more extreme example, consider a 50/50 mixture of a normal with mean 1,000 and SD 1 with another normal with mean 2,000 and SD 1. The mixture is...
Forum: MAS-II 04-29-2019, 10:51 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 2,726
Posted By daaaave
I'm attaching draft solutions in case anyone...

I'm attaching draft solutions in case anyone wants them to help deciding what (if anything) they want to appeal. I disagree with the preliminary answer key on the following 3 problems:

On #5, I...
Forum: MAS-II 04-22-2019, 11:22 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 2,726
Posted By daaaave
The intent of the problem is to get at the idea...

The intent of the problem is to get at the idea that model selection is really more of a frequentist topic, and is antithetical to the Bayesian approach. Picking a single model based on WAIC and...
Forum: MAS-II 04-22-2019, 11:08 AM
Replies: 55
Views: 18,961
Posted By daaaave
I updated my solutions PDF from earlier in this...

I updated my solutions PDF from earlier in this thread to clean up some typos and add more detail on some problems.
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 04-22-2019, 11:03 AM
Replies: 77
Views: 17,338
Posted By daaaave
As you are calling this Example 3.1, you are...

As you are calling this Example 3.1, you are using the 3rd edition of the Intro to Ratemaking text, not the 4th edition, which is the one on the syllabus. There are some topics in Chapter 5 that are...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-13-2019, 04:51 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 611
Posted By daaaave
TIL The Right doesn't properly appreciate steak.

TIL The Right doesn't properly appreciate steak.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 01-08-2019, 02:55 PM
Replies: 697
Views: 157,154
Posted By daaaave
In the preferences of most R installations is an...

In the preferences of most R installations is an option to select the default working directory. See e.g. https://support.rstudio.com/hc/en-us/articles/200549016-Customizing-RStudio for R-Studio.
...
Forum: Probability 01-07-2019, 10:22 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 1,034
Posted By daaaave
Intuitively, independence means that knowing...

Intuitively, independence means that knowing whether or not one event occurred doesn't affect your knowledge of whether or not the other one occurred. Here, P[A] = 1/2. If I told you that B occurred,...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 12-21-2018, 01:15 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 781
Posted By daaaave
Whenever X is a continuous loss variable, E[X...

Whenever X is a continuous loss variable,
E[X \wedge 20] = \int_0^{20} x \cdot f(x) \, dx + 20 \Pr[X>20]
In their expression, they are finding Pr[X>20] by doing 1 - Pr[X<=20] as the integral for...
Forum: MAS-II 11-06-2018, 08:00 PM
Replies: 55
Views: 18,961
Posted By daaaave
Thanks, I've updated my solution file to remove...

Thanks, I've updated my solution file to remove numbers for those problems.
Forum: MAS-II 11-06-2018, 03:46 PM
Replies: 55
Views: 18,961
Posted By daaaave
Okay, here are some solutions to the exam. I made...

Okay, here are some solutions to the exam. I made some comments on #1 and #2, but can't compute numbers without the case study given on the exam.
Forum: MAS-II 11-06-2018, 02:14 PM
Replies: 55
Views: 18,961
Posted By daaaave
I was assuming they used the same case study as...

I was assuming they used the same case study as distributed before the sample questions, as both are about systolic blood pressure...
Forum: MAS-II 11-06-2018, 11:03 AM
Replies: 55
Views: 18,961
Posted By daaaave
Some thoughts on the exam as the appeal deadline...

Some thoughts on the exam as the appeal deadline is Friday:

On #1, I get E from the numbers in the published case study, but my understanding is the case study given on the exam was different and...
Forum: MAS-II 11-01-2018, 03:31 PM
Replies: 55
Views: 18,961
Posted By daaaave
Saying that we aren't yet stationary or mixing...

Saying that we aren't yet stationary or mixing well is consistent with saying that we need a larger sample size. We aren't mixing well because the auto-correlation is strong enough that it takes a...
Forum: MAS-II 11-01-2018, 09:03 AM
Replies: 55
Views: 18,961
Posted By daaaave
I agree with their answer. If you look at the...

I agree with their answer. If you look at the examples in Figure 8.5 of McElreath, in the example with a flat prior that should be replaced by a weakly informative prior (which has a reduced...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 10-29-2018, 08:27 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 781
Posted By daaaave
Yes, it should. Thanks for pointing this out,...

Yes, it should. Thanks for pointing this out, I'll update the lesson.



The question is asking about annual claim amounts. One data point is thus one annual claim amount for 1 insured, and the...
Forum: MAS-II 10-15-2018, 11:17 AM
Replies: 55
Views: 18,961
Posted By daaaave
For #12, I'm not sure what you mean by the...

For #12, I'm not sure what you mean by the highest split. If you mean the fact that we are splitting first where X_1 and Y are highest, that is not the reason why the answer is B. The reason why that...
Forum: MAS-II 10-15-2018, 09:53 AM
Replies: 55
Views: 18,961
Posted By daaaave
For #3, you used the fact that for Poisson-Gamma,...

For #3, you used the fact that for Poisson-Gamma, the Buhlmann and Bayesian credibility estimates match and used the Bayesian approach, which is fine. I think it's also worth writing out how the...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 10-07-2018, 03:28 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 548
Posted By daaaave
In the example, our data point was 15,000,000 in...

In the example, our data point was 15,000,000 in observed losses. That is our X-bar, and when we do Z * 15,000,000, we are doing Z * X-bar. The 10,000,000 of the prior estimate is our M, so the (1-Z)...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 10-04-2018, 09:22 AM
Replies: 170
Views: 64,138
Posted By daaaave
It is almost just an electronic version of the...

It is almost just an electronic version of the print out, except it is divided into 5 sections (a cover page that tells you to round when using the normal table as well as gives you the standard...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 10-02-2018, 10:25 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 903
Posted By daaaave
It should match at both, so either be 3 at both...

It should match at both, so either be 3 at both or 50 at both. I'll change it to 50 throughout.
Forum: Probability 09-07-2018, 09:35 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 1,513
Posted By daaaave
For a first pass through the material, 60% is...

For a first pass through the material, 60% is normal. Most of the problems are either old exam problems or exam level problems, and passing on the exam used to be around 65% (lately it has crept...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 300

 

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