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Search: Posts Made By: The_Polymath
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 01:58 PM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
People who stick their head in the sand honestly...

People who stick their head in the sand honestly amaze me.

Pointless to argue with people like that.

Enjoy your Pandemic.

Goodbye.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 01:50 PM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
If this thread shows one thing, its that the...

If this thread shows one thing, its that the current federal response is incredibly problematic.

Its clearly affecting the narrative at the individual level, and the people here are all reasonably...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 01:45 PM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
So, you have no idea about the situation? ...

So, you have no idea about the situation?

Cool, moving on.

Don't waste my time again.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 01:41 PM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
Was reading a NYT expose on them and they sound...

Was reading a NYT expose on them and they sound like quite a secretive religious "cult".

Don't know much beyond that as I have just been following the incident reports.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 01:39 PM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
South Korea only had one major focal center...

South Korea only had one major focal center though.

Gets much more difficult when you have several.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 01:35 PM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
I would lay a large bet that Cuomo locked new...

I would lay a large bet that Cuomo locked new rochelle down because he received advice similar to what I just stated.

They are a big risk group given objective realities. And you absolutely have...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 01:28 PM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
Keep ignoring reality and at risk groups. ...

Keep ignoring reality and at risk groups.

Lets see how that works out for you in a pandemic
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 01:25 PM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
75-85% of the transmission is via families ...

75-85% of the transmission is via families

They have very large families and tend to ignore scientific advice

Now, does that sound like a good combination of variables to you?
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 01:23 PM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
Can you not do research? The underlying math...

Can you not do research?

The underlying math behind pandemic models is not super complex.
(It's the assumptions that have very wide CIs)

Then take a look at the transmission rates from various...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 01:10 PM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
You keep ignoring the fact that you have access...

You keep ignoring the fact that you have access to timelines in Europe as it pertains to viral propagation.

It amazes me that people here keep ignoring the fact that the situation went from...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 01:02 PM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
You are the one giving bad advice as you have no...

You are the one giving bad advice as you have no background in pandemics (and no working in health is not even close to enough)

I am not.

And I stand by my comments.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-10-2020, 01:01 PM
Replies: 2,986
Views: 347,086
Posted By The_Polymath
Confirmed. Thats when panic will start...

Confirmed.

Thats when panic will start hitting the average person, and they will take this more seriously. That means less spending (as they stay home and avoid socialising) which will then...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 12:58 PM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
Orthodox Jewish folks once again. It really...

Orthodox Jewish folks once again.

It really never ends with these folks. First not vaccinating and now ignoring the advice.
...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 12:53 PM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
How does what I did make things worse for society...

How does what I did make things worse for society at the margins?

It was preventative, and most likely the correct action given that Brazil has 35 cases (only 3 in Rio) and the UK is close to 400...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 12:49 PM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
Disagree. As Actuaries we have a responsibility...

Disagree. As Actuaries we have a responsibility to promote a responsible response to this Pandemic.

Thats how we view this in the UK on a professional level.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-10-2020, 12:28 PM
Replies: 2,986
Views: 347,086
Posted By The_Polymath
The pain hasn't even started yet. Wait till...

The pain hasn't even started yet.

Wait till the US reaches 10,000+ cases. The stock markets have a ways to go till they settle.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 11:55 AM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
I understand how pandemics work. I have...

I understand how pandemics work.

I have studied and used pandemic calibrations in risk-based capital models.

And reducing virus propagation is incredibly important to reduce the peak of the...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 11:45 AM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
You have an actual functioning brain no? As...

You have an actual functioning brain no?

As an Actuary, you should understand the value of informing yourself and taking preventive action.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 11:43 AM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
Its on March 16th (vs Everton. Was moved from...

Its on March 16th (vs Everton. Was moved from March 14th)

I can't resell the tickets as I got them from a season ticket holder (via Stub Hub). You are not allowed to resell it (idiotic policy but...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 11:33 AM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
Are you being obtuse on purpose?

Are you being obtuse on purpose?
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 11:31 AM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
1. I WFH and stopped social occasions (turned...

1. I WFH and stopped social occasions (turned down two major social events)

2. Not going to a Liverpool match (200 loss)

3. Not travelling to Madrid (600 loss)

Etc..

So you see, this...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 10:50 AM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
This is extremely poor logic. You are...

This is extremely poor logic.

You are increasing the propagation of the virus in your community.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 10:39 AM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
Not exponential. Worse. Parabolic.

Not exponential. Worse. Parabolic.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 10:16 AM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
No. I cancelled a scheduled trip to Madrid next...

No. I cancelled a scheduled trip to Madrid next week.

If the situation peaks in the next few weeks, then my later trip to the Balearic Islands should be ok. If not, I will reconsider that trip as...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-10-2020, 09:49 AM
Replies: 10,101
Views: 781,857
Posted By The_Polymath
Then you are being just as irresponsible as he is...

Then you are being just as irresponsible as he is and should be ashamed of yourself.
Showing results 1 to 25 of 300

 

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