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Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing Today, 09:38 AM
Replies: 118
Views: 13,188
I haven't pulled the underlying data, but I'm...

I haven't pulled the underlying data, but I'm guessing that my original post was based on intra-day and yours is based on closings.

Using your data, around 25% of trading days have closing prices...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 07-04-2020, 02:19 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 606
If you're a reinsurer, you might also wonder...

If you're a reinsurer, you might also wonder about underwriting year. Depending on the underlying and if the basis is risks attaching or losses occurring, losses and premiums can be a real challenge...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 07-04-2020, 01:49 PM
Replies: 2,684
Views: 147,388
It's easy to remember: she was in the Senate.

It's easy to remember: she was in the Senate.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 07-03-2020, 02:55 PM
Replies: 118
Views: 13,188
Believe it or not, daily market moves of +/-3%...

Believe it or not, daily market moves of +/-3% are not uncommon. In the past twenty years this has happened on about 10% of the trading days. So, sitting out a month risks much more than just...
Forum: General Actuarial 07-02-2020, 09:09 AM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,743
If you needed to score over 90% in order to pass,...

If you needed to score over 90% in order to pass, this would be a pertinent comment ---- you don't. You should know that regulators don't want to have to clean-up an insolvent insurer and that...
Forum: General Actuarial 07-02-2020, 09:01 AM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,743
The syllabus changes over time, so maybe the...

The syllabus changes over time, so maybe the numbering has changed. I did not memorize the details of the twelve ratio formulae nor their required ranges, but look, it isn't hard.

Let's take the...
Forum: General Actuarial 06-30-2020, 09:36 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,743
You seem to take as a given that memorization is...

You seem to take as a given that memorization is being tested. Why do you think that? I never memorized anything, and I completed the CAS exams.
Forum: General Actuarial 06-21-2020, 05:11 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 271
How to value a credential

(I originally was going to post this in another thread, but then I remembered "Never wrestle with a pig, because if you do, you both get dirty and the pig enjoys it.")

A credential has values in...
Forum: General Actuarial 06-20-2020, 03:29 PM
Replies: 138
Views: 5,096
Here's a question for you: Can you reconcile...

Here's a question for you: Can you reconcile those figures?
Forum: Exam 6 US - Regulation and Financial Reporting 06-04-2020, 09:29 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 928
This is a self-serving, irresponsible, and untrue...

This is a self-serving, irresponsible, and untrue statement.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 06-02-2020, 09:22 AM
Replies: 89
Views: 8,367
So, you really are only "earning" 6/8 or so of...

So, you really are only "earning" 6/8 or so of the HSBC bonus and less than half of the North Shore bonus in 2020. :)
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-29-2020, 09:12 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 709
Thumbs down The bid/ask spread would eat you alive over time,...

The bid/ask spread would eat you alive over time, but even if you could expect to trade on average at the mid, what are you gaining? Companies typically time announcements to occur while the market...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-29-2020, 12:10 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 709
Occasionally trading in a stock will be halted...

Occasionally trading in a stock will be halted during the day in anticipation of company news. The news is released and trading resumes. I'll make up an example:

Bid/Ask before halt: 10.0/10.1
...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 05-16-2020, 04:04 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 634
Those look like useful comments. Useless...

Those look like useful comments.

Useless comments are like the following:

Running_total += Next_term # add Next_term to Running_total
Forum: Chat with the Candidates & Exam Committee 04-25-2020, 07:22 PM
Replies: 85
Views: 16,500
APC is the ethics unit. Since you can't imagine...

APC is the ethics unit. Since you can't imagine its necessity, you now have evidence of its necessity.
Forum: Probability 04-24-2020, 02:01 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 626
Draw the axes, the circle, and the line. ...

Draw the axes, the circle, and the line.

These cut the region into a total of five pieces; presumably the region that you want is the lens shaped region. This is one quarter of the full circle...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 04-18-2020, 12:06 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 611
One idea that comes to mind is to use an...

One idea that comes to mind is to use an iterative approach, somewhat akin to the old Bailey minimum bias method and the EM algorithm.

Select an initial value for the NCD. Replace the base...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-12-2020, 10:49 AM
Replies: 26
Views: 1,115
That happens anytime the derivative of your...

That happens anytime the derivative of your function is not equal to one at the point in question.
Forum: General Actuarial 04-11-2020, 01:45 PM
Replies: 31
Views: 3,361
It is really in the company's best interests to...

It is really in the company's best interests to do something like this.

Suppose that a company typically had premium of 1000, expenses of 200, and incurred losses of 750 --- a 75% loss ratio and...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 04-09-2020, 10:13 PM
Replies: 2,981
Views: 345,309
Does the news contain any information that wasn't...

Does the news contain any information that wasn't available yesterday? If it is good news, expect the market to go up and conversely.

New unemployment filings = 6.2M? Is that bad news? Not if...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-27-2020, 10:14 PM
Replies: 2,981
Views: 345,309
There are cash-settled index options, but you...

There are cash-settled index options, but you specified SPY, an ETF.

First rule of investing: if you don't understand the trade, don't do it.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-27-2020, 07:33 PM
Replies: 2,981
Views: 345,309
You're missing the point. If your put expired...

You're missing the point. If your put expired in-the-money and your broker exercises it for you, you end up with a short position in the underlying. There is no maximum possible loss on a short...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-27-2020, 07:05 PM
Replies: 2,981
Views: 345,309
Let's say that you buy a 10-strike put on XYZ...

Let's say that you buy a 10-strike put on XYZ that expires tomorrow; XYZ is trading at 11 right now. At the close tomorrow, XYZ is trading at 9.5 … your options is $0.50 in the money, so your broker...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-27-2020, 02:01 PM
Replies: 2,981
Views: 345,309
Are you long the underlying? If not, think about...

Are you long the underlying? If not, think about what exercise would mean …

It worries me to see people trading derivatives that they don't understand.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-27-2020, 11:53 AM
Replies: 2,981
Views: 345,309
Picking the strikes on calendar spreads and...

Picking the strikes on calendar spreads and diagonal spreads like this is tricky because the term structure of volatility is very difficult to model --- in fact, this problem is one of the best...
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