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Search: Posts Made By: daaaave
Forum: MAS-II 10-31-2019, 02:56 PM
Replies: 156
Views: 19,592
Posted By daaaave
I have to go pick up the kids so they can get...

I have to go pick up the kids so they can get into their Halloween costumes, here's the draft solutions that I have.

Of the controversial questions, I think #35 should be E. The given information...
Forum: MAS-II 10-30-2019, 04:25 PM
Replies: 156
Views: 19,592
Posted By daaaave
Since it is only asking about credibility for...

Since it is only asking about credibility for frequency and not aggregate it’s probably ok. The derivation in the text starts generally for frequency then only adds the Poisson assumption at the last...
Forum: MAS-II 10-30-2019, 12:22 PM
Replies: 156
Views: 19,592
Posted By daaaave
I'm still working on written solutions, I'm...

I'm still working on written solutions, I'm hoping tomorrow. My only issues so far with the preliminary answer key are that the given information in #35 is impossible so I'm not sure yet how to...
Forum: MAS-II 10-30-2019, 10:06 AM
Replies: 156
Views: 19,592
Posted By daaaave
Since you know that the total area under the...

Since you know that the total area under the curve is 1, you could try to visually estimate something by dividing the region under the curve into rectangles whose relative sizes you can estimate. But...
Forum: MAS-II 10-28-2019, 04:25 PM
Replies: 156
Views: 19,592
Posted By daaaave
Yes

Yes
Forum: MAS-II 10-27-2019, 04:23 PM
Replies: 156
Views: 19,592
Posted By daaaave
I haven't seen the exam yet, but are you talking...

I haven't seen the exam yet, but are you talking about the example in Section 6.4 of Tse? Only 6.1 - 6.3 is on the syllabus.
Forum: MAS-I 10-25-2019, 11:36 PM
Replies: 553
Views: 79,352
Posted By daaaave
I’d also include a solution supporting your...

I’d also include a solution supporting your answer. For the Spring MAS-II exam I appealed 3 questions and gave 1-2 paragraph rationales for each. The CAS accepted my answers for all 3 but I don’t...
Forum: MAS-I 10-25-2019, 10:45 PM
Replies: 553
Views: 79,352
Posted By daaaave
You can send appeals to defective-item@casact.org

You can send appeals to defective-item@casact.org
Forum: MAS-II 10-16-2019, 10:07 AM
Replies: 156
Views: 19,592
Posted By daaaave
I don't know why the CAS says I is true here. I...

I don't know why the CAS says I is true here. I can't find anything clear in the text. What I can find in the academic literature is a discussion that the EM algorithm as originally published doesn't...
Forum: MAS-II 10-08-2019, 02:59 PM
Replies: 156
Views: 19,592
Posted By daaaave
I disagree with the approach to #1 in the google...

I disagree with the approach to #1 in the google docs file. Since we are doing a likelihood ratio test for the residual variance structure, we want to use REML, not ML. See e.g., p 35 or 107 of the...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 07-09-2019, 01:29 PM
Replies: 59
Views: 18,232
Posted By daaaave
The rumor I've heard is 2020 is the goal date.

The rumor I've heard is 2020 is the goal date.
Forum: MAS-II 06-17-2019, 05:26 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 6,155
Posted By daaaave
Thanks for the quick clarification.

Thanks for the quick clarification.
Forum: MAS-II 06-17-2019, 04:16 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 6,155
Posted By daaaave
Final answer key is up. They changed #5 from D to...

Final answer key is up. They changed #5 from D to E, #18 from A to E, and on #35 added E as an accepted answer choice.
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 05-14-2019, 01:12 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 1,902
Posted By daaaave
You probably want to look under wherever they...

You probably want to look under wherever they cover ILFs. The point is that in computing the pure premium for the 250,000 limit, we want to use only data coming from policies with a limit of at least...
Forum: MAS-II 05-02-2019, 01:00 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 6,155
Posted By daaaave
I think by this you are thinking their expression...

I think by this you are thinking their expression becomes
\sigma_i = (\alpha + \beta x_i)^2 + 1
Is that what you are saying?

The problem with that is that the link function has to be a...
Forum: MAS-II 04-30-2019, 05:58 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 6,155
Posted By daaaave
I've updated my solution file above to correct a...

I've updated my solution file above to correct a mistake I made in # 38.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-29-2019, 12:08 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 516
Posted By daaaave
No, a mixture of 2 normals isn't normal. For a...

No, a mixture of 2 normals isn't normal. For a more extreme example, consider a 50/50 mixture of a normal with mean 1,000 and SD 1 with another normal with mean 2,000 and SD 1. The mixture is...
Forum: MAS-II 04-29-2019, 11:51 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 6,155
Posted By daaaave
I'm attaching draft solutions in case anyone...

I'm attaching draft solutions in case anyone wants them to help deciding what (if anything) they want to appeal. I disagree with the preliminary answer key on the following 3 problems:

On #5, I...
Forum: MAS-II 04-22-2019, 12:22 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 6,155
Posted By daaaave
The intent of the problem is to get at the idea...

The intent of the problem is to get at the idea that model selection is really more of a frequentist topic, and is antithetical to the Bayesian approach. Picking a single model based on WAIC and...
Forum: MAS-II 04-22-2019, 12:08 PM
Replies: 55
Views: 24,048
Posted By daaaave
I updated my solutions PDF from earlier in this...

I updated my solutions PDF from earlier in this thread to clean up some typos and add more detail on some problems.
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 04-22-2019, 12:03 PM
Replies: 128
Views: 47,755
Posted By daaaave
As you are calling this Example 3.1, you are...

As you are calling this Example 3.1, you are using the 3rd edition of the Intro to Ratemaking text, not the 4th edition, which is the one on the syllabus. There are some topics in Chapter 5 that are...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-13-2019, 05:51 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 884
Posted By daaaave
TIL The Right doesn't properly appreciate steak.

TIL The Right doesn't properly appreciate steak.
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 01-08-2019, 03:55 PM
Replies: 697
Views: 167,970
Posted By daaaave
In the preferences of most R installations is an...

In the preferences of most R installations is an option to select the default working directory. See e.g. https://support.rstudio.com/hc/en-us/articles/200549016-Customizing-RStudio for R-Studio.
...
Forum: Probability 01-07-2019, 11:22 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 1,168
Posted By daaaave
Intuitively, independence means that knowing...

Intuitively, independence means that knowing whether or not one event occurred doesn't affect your knowledge of whether or not the other one occurred. Here, P[A] = 1/2. If I told you that B occurred,...
Forum: Short-Term Actuarial Math 12-21-2018, 02:15 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 884
Posted By daaaave
Whenever X is a continuous loss variable, E[X...

Whenever X is a continuous loss variable,
E[X \wedge 20] = \int_0^{20} x \cdot f(x) \, dx + 20 \Pr[X>20]
In their expression, they are finding Pr[X>20] by doing 1 - Pr[X<=20] as the integral for...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 300

 

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