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#6141
12-02-2007, 05:31 PM
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blue skies = 4sigma?
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Official Poster of Post 1,234,567 Quote:
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#6142
12-02-2007, 05:50 PM
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Quote:
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Spoiler:
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#6143
12-02-2007, 07:15 PM
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Quote:
  thanks for the analysis Blue Skies! you in depth perspective into each and every player is by far the most comprehensive ever posted in this game (since i've played). props to you brother (or sister  )!i'd like to change gears on the whole bickering with AS since historically this has always played out poorly to the hands of the IS meaning two IS getting in an argument and lost from the big picture. me hath stepped back... found a new colorful stone lying on the ground... for now, to spread some heat and elicit some discussion, unstone Abused Student stone justkay but Dic Ex is next on my list
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#6144
12-02-2007, 07:45 PM
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Abused Student
only the facts: (I'm not listing every post, just posts that looked notable as I read them) 1051 - poorly recreated Princess Bride dialogue (game begins) 1101 - staying alive until the end and killing all the EC = win 1127 - Why is creating a list of 5 harder for the EC than the IS? 1135 - wow, I made the top of ECB's list 1259 and 1465 - people who havent checked in yet but posted elsewhere are suspicious (Kenshiro) 1262 - response to hotkarl's "do we all get a PM?" post. hotkarl is suspicious 1493 - willing to lynch dead weight first round. bad for ghost forum, but 2nd round IS can be the ghost leader 1531 - foghorn is too annoying to be EC, and other thoughts 1553 - If I were EC, I'd kill the threats first before the obvious IS 1581 - harvma is suspicious for switching his vote after people start to vote the same 1598 - defensive vs dino, didnt say was confident who is EC, could still be swayed 1661 - BS is suspicious for switching away from hotkarl early 1666 - if BS i EC, so is hotkarl A huge ton of posts - jokes, short comments on other posts, short questions, fluff, etc 1683 and 1684 - should lynch hotkarl, could give us useful info on BS, more useful than stoning foghorn 2248 - People who voted for me just dont like me, they dont think I'm EC. BS is too suspicious not to be BS 2259 - dinosaur is suspicious because he voted for AS even though he said the chances of him being IS were more than the chances of him being EC 2418 - verified the ECB frame on Kenshiro 2440 - voting for Kenshiro 2460 - Kenshiro said foghorn made it up, then went quiet when other people confirmed 2476 - could have been a frame, but Kenshiro's reaction was damning 2481 - if kenshiro is innocent, I could be considered suspicious 2540 - nrm is suspicious because he is talking about the ghost forum more than game issues 2604, 2610, and 2615 - stoning Kenshiro gives us more information than stoning Macroman 2874 - wondering why the EC killed nrm 2896 - Browncoat is not participating enough 2916 - everyone on the least active list is suspicious 2942 - dino is suspicious for thinking AS and udjw828 are both EC for sharing the same top 5 2998 - gives proxy to kiwi 3051 - people who claim they dont understand KAIA are suspicious 3086 - talking to a ghost 3146 - why is it bad to ask to be collected? 3156 - more fun with ghosts, followed by an angry kitty in 3157 3197 - KAIA is good because it spreads heat around 3213 - foghorn could be suspicious, defensive on confirming Kenshiro frame 3242 - not convinced that AO Watcher is EC, not enough proof 3281 and 3283 - trying to figure out ghost communication 3297 and 3312 - browncoat is suspicious, posted elsewhere, but not much here 3387 - asking mica how the writing style analysis is coming along 3393 - mica is suspicious for giving proxy to the one she is voting for 3404 - more attempts at deciphering ghost-speak 3462 - defending AO Watcher, right now theres not much to figure out from EC posts, but later on they can be useful 5322 - Browncoat is not actively participating, he is trying to fly under the radar 3535 - harvma could have slipped up in the wii game thread rather than a frame 3611 - wants browncoat defenders to explain why he shouldnt be stoned 3640 and 3673 - foghorn is suspicious for voting for Browncoat 4 hours before the deadline even though he thinks browncoat is an IS and other bandwagons higher on his list were available. 4 hours is too early, should wait till its needed with 30 minutes left 3665 - going against KAIA to vote for foghorn. (retraction at 3670 back to browncoat) 3694 - asking browncoat to defend himself 3740, 3752, 3760, and 3765 - likes browncoat's answers, now prefers werewolf. Resistance to vote werewolf looks like an effort by EC to save him 3906 - reluctantly agrees with lynching cgnech if browncoat and WW are both not lynchable 4072 - BS should get more heat this round 4081 - we should stone an experienced person next, would rather keep a quiet person that we know is IS and go after a suspicious experienced player 4176 - top-5 with a huge amount of explanation, AA and kohl are suspicious 4207 - defensive vs harvma, not targetting all experienced players, just those who have questions to answer. harvma is suspicious for his reaction to this 4211 - we have a very organized EC with someone very experienced leading them 4274 and several others - kohl is suspicious, very little of his own research, but swaying the way people vote 4427 - huge post with strategy, everyone should now be able to post reasons for votes 4449 and 4458 - Werewolf either slipped up, or he is being framed by the EC in the "Does your SO do this?" thread 4454 - giving reasons for your top-5 helps everyone but the EC, so kohl is suspicious. surprised browncoat buys kohl's defense 4605 - kohl changed his vote again with no reasoning 4701 and a bunch of others - discussions and back-and-forth with kohl 4703 - not only focused on kohl, wanted to get him to respond with enough "noise", but thinking of others too 4742 - gives proxy to AA, with instructions 4966 - new top-5 with explanations 4994 - foghorn went from one extreme to the other 5073 - MrsFrog might be suspicious regarding ECB posts 5244 - dino's "bored with the game" post is suspicious 5332 - dont think mica is suspicious, she would change her posting style as an EC 5341 - mica could be easy for an EC to frame 5386 - hk, dino, and SirV are most suspicious. mica is being set up 5440 - MrsFrog is suspicious for disappearing on a stoning day 5493 - believes mica's explanation regarding "she", kohl is suspicious for pressing hard for mica's stoning 5527 - MrsFrog no longer suspicious, voting for dino 5557 - willing to move to SirV if dino cant be lynched 5621 - defensive, was willing to vote for werewolf for a long time, explained many times in past posts 5624 - werewolf's proposed 30% rule is suspicious 5693 - foghorn's beheading was interesting 5745 - kohl is most suspicious, since mica was innocent 5778 - new top 5 with explanations 5888 - if kohl is EC, I havent been killed yet because it would have been too obvious 5944 - harvma is suspicious by focusing on questions that have been answered or cant be answered and making accusations based on it (retracted in 5957) 6012 - the ghosts will probably haunt dino next round 6016 - the person who has been yelling all game for us to look at dino is now in the ghost forum 6029 and 6032 - dino is suspicious for being overdefensive only the hunches and opinions: Could be EC because - 1135 and 1553 - along with lots of other posts, seems to be trying hard to establish himself as an ovbious EC-hunting IS 2248 - dont like the first part. Maybe its valid to demand evidence after round one, but people were only trying to get lots into bucket 2 and its too early to have good evidence. This sounds like something EC might say. 3760 - in a crazy way, if AS is EC this could be a great play for him. Lets say he knows both are IS, he hits browncoat hard, asks questions, is satisfied, now wants to change to WW, but the unruly mob wont go there. Blackcoat is lynched, AS says he's right, people who wouldnt listen to him are suspicious, etc. Maybe I've just got a paranoid mind. Might be (Not is, might be!) innocent because - 2481 - I normally would consider this kind of thing bad, but this is an unusual case. At this point people are believing the frame, and its going bad for Kenshiro, if AS is an EC there's no need to say this, unless he really wanted to try to solidify it, thinking he could talk his way out later. overall early posting - After the first several dozen posts all in 3-4 days mostly game-related you get the feeling that AS is trying harder than almost everyone else to find the EC. That could be a good EC cover, but I doubt an EC would be quite THIS active. 3673 - I like this, if you post a suspicious list, you shouldnt easily ignore it until the deadline is very close without good evidence or reasons, and foghorn didnt give much. If having to post a top-5 is bad for the EC, then I'd imagine the EC would like to be able to easily get away from it, so I doubt an EC would make this post. 4427 - this is a very good pro-student post, I find it hard to believe an EC would do this. Neutral thoughts - Wow. All hail the undisputed heavyweight champion of the world in AO EC game thread posting. dinosaur's got nothing on him. 1666 - I normally dont like these sorts of arguements because they usually dont have a lot of evidence under it, but this one at least had some reason behind it. 2418 - I thought about putting this as a negative, but thats too easy and I focused on that way too much last week. It still shouldnt be ignored though, an EC might want to sit back and be ready to confirm the frame if someone else makes the first post about it. 5745 - normally dont like this kind of arguement, but AS wrote pages of text why kohl was suspicious in his opinion. Done with AS! Finally! Thank God (if there was one)! A lot of the posts I tossed out would have been posted as highly relevant from anyone else, but after a while, you get to a point where your thinking enough already, I'm only noting a few posts per day!
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Rock Chalk Jayhawk, Go KU!
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#6145
12-02-2007, 09:17 PM
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Spun Financial CEO
only the facts: (I'm not listing every post, just posts that looked notable as I read them) 1155 - That's not even funny! (game begins) 1159 - ECB list is interesting 1162 - kohl is probably innocent, when he was EC he strictly controlled EC postings 1318 - rekrap is suspicious for putting highly-experienced players in his top-5 1321 - not lurking, busy with work 1357 and 1585 - hotkarl is probably innocent, "do we get a PM?" is probably a rookie mistake, not a cover 1572 - BS very suspicious, first posts looked like posts spun made in a game when he was EC 1607 - cgnech is suspicious because posts are short and without substance 1611 - switching to foghorn, who is very annoying 1685 and 1726 - AS's posts on BS -> HK, HK -> BS are conflicting, and not much evidence (retracted on 1749) 1765 - Will is not participating enough, was active elsewhere on forum 1769 - Kenshiro is suspicious, because he "discovered" how to access thread from work when people started questioning him 1770 - justkay is only posting defensive, no top-5's or analysis 1775 - SirV has posted a lot elsewhere, but not much here 1784 - Macroman is not contributing substance, but only posts are here so he may not have much time 1790 - BS not posting much, but only posting here, so might not have much time 1798 - AO Watcher seems to be posting only enough to be seen without adding much, looks suspicious 1828 - kohl is lurking more than usual 1847 - AO Watcher has started to post a ton since the last note on his activity 1915 - Macroman being over-defensive 2104 and 2109 - AA's ECA profile list may be useful, but need to narrow the list down to 3 or 4 people first 2110 - summary of events, near end All Clear and Browncoat suspicious for not participating, Browncoat is the better target since he's online and not posting. 2177 - if anyone voted for themself to get out of bucket 2, it would be highly suspicious 2187 - KAIA is an imperfect mess, but better than what we had last game. 2190 and 2201 - coordination with other players to maximise bucket 2 2336 - BS and Macroman most suspicious 2550 - Browncoat's strange post on KAIA is suspicious 2556 - AO Watcher highly suspicious, for posting style and timing after EC posts and kiwi's post on writing style 2590 - AO Watcher is posting more after getting heat, but all quick and no research 2594 - if Kenshiro was framed, then someone with a lot of experience is EC 2607 - Kenshiro's response (foghorn is lying) is bad 2608 - Kenshiro is probably EC, but if not, we'll learn something 2820 - crazy theory on IS Kenshiro killing himself without access to ECB account (2824 - oops, I is dumb) 2836 - Will's Olde English post is suspicious 3236 - AO Watcher is very suspicious 3239 - AO Watcher is being over-defensive 3243 - AO Watcher, dino, and werewolf could all be EC 3246 - huge post of AO Watcher quotes 3274 - AO Watcher quotes were intended to show lack of substance 3292 - We shouldnt try to follow the ghosts or try to figure out a ghost code yet 3310 - browncoat is suspicious because he doesnt post much substance 3322 - Will is suspicious because he doesnt post much 3441 - nrm should make himself visible so we can try to help the ghosts when they are online 3728 - giving proxy to AA 4103 and 4104 - Long posts. AA used proxies appropriately, and this shows he is probably not an EC. EC would not use proxies in a questionable way. Agrees that late switches in early rounds are good for the students. 4105 - defensive vs kohl, switched from AO Watcher to spread heat to more people 4106 - AO Watcher contradicts himself, first researching EC post times is noobish, but then he does it. 4107 - justkay is suspicious, posts look like newbie EC 4108 - AS is suspicious, makes it clear that he is reluctant to vote cgnech but will if others go that way, looks like he's ducking responsibility if cgnech is IS. 4109 - WadotNChew's switch also looks suspicious 4110 - Werewolf or Browncoat are probably EC, we may want to look at people who switched 4668 - gives proxy to CLW 4805 - returns, takes back proxy to keep vote where it is 4818 - AA is suspicious for swinging over to Browncoat at the last minutes after saying he wanted to lynch dlwktb 4848 - agrees with AS, everyone should post a top-5 with reasons 4907 - should go back and review the stalemate 5010 - at least one person in the EC is orchestrating the rest 5016 - recent top-10 with reasons 5020 - people with Super-low post counts are not suspicious, because EC feel a need to keep up their posting. Sometimes just low post counts can be EC, like in the last game. 5113 and 5114 - interesting list of postcount order from last game, and noting who is EC, and a postcount order for this game, followed by long analysis. Most EC tend to postcount in the middle 5135 - SirV and Linus are suspicious because they have become a lot less active from last game (retracts on Linus 5150) 5151 - SirV is suspicious because he gives no reason and tries to appear not responsible for the results due to no evidence 5152 - SirV is not posting substance 5155 - BS is suspicious for saying there's a large gap between #4 and #5 (SirV) 5165 - defensive, SirV's theory that Spun and BS are EC is not good 5390 - dino and mica are not very suspicious 5408 - if Werewolf is EC, we'll get a lot of information from the stalemate 5426 - defending foghorn, was his first game, he calmed down after people were annoyed 6080 - Beheadings arent random, the EC have a purpose behind their executions only the hunches and opinions: Could be EC because - 2820 - this looks very odd. The obvious implication is that only an IS would post an obviously wrong theory that will get corrected, since an EC would know whats going on. This could be a clever attempt to play dumb to what the EC would know. 4110 - this looks like a pretty big contradiction. AA's big switch to cgnech is good, but anyone else who switched is suspicious? An EC might try this sort of thing to delicately protect AA and pick off everyone else. Maybe I misread it, and he meant that people who refused to budge and caused the stalemate are suspicious. Might be (Not is, might be!) innocent because - 2104 - almost called this neutral, but I'm thinking an EC probably would say nothing or disagree. The ECA profile thing looks like a slip-up, and this response is more reasonable than going crazy with possibly killing 8 people 3292 - good post, if the ghosts arent really communicating, EC might want to get the students to chase after random meaningless boos 3441 - looks like a good post, EC might try to ignore the ghosts or do things that hinder them 4108 and 5151 - I like these posts, an EC might want the option to quietly go with the flow without sticking their necks out, I dont think an EC would call people out for reluctant votes that try to avoid accountability Neutral thoughts - Fairly interesting, some people go almost all logic, some use feelings, Spun uses both. He also usually doesnt have "tunnel vision", is willing to change his mind and switch to accusing or defending people with evidence.
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Rock Chalk Jayhawk, Go KU!
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#6146
12-02-2007, 09:34 PM
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KU in the Orange Bowl! Woohoo, dream season complete!
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Rock Chalk Jayhawk, Go KU!
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#6147
12-02-2007, 09:42 PM
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Looks like I'm supposed to be next. I dont think I can make an unbiased profile myself, so I'll skip it. If someone else is insane enough to want to put something together, go for it.
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Rock Chalk Jayhawk, Go KU!
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#6148
12-02-2007, 10:09 PM
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All Clear
only the facts: (I'm not listing every post, just posts that... actually... yes, I am going to list every post) 2125 - I am embarassed to admit that I skipped pages in this thread (huge post discussing several people) (game begins) 2613 - big post, top 5 based on less history, answering questions 3434 - big post answering questions, Will's lynch the active strategy is bad, will always be low post count, KAIA is good because it forces people to change votes 3716 - give proxy to kiwi, Browncoat isnt posting much substance 4329 - logs on certain amount of time, researches, posts, signs off, this wont change. People shouldnt be annoyed at AA having many proxies, look at those who gave the proxies. not a quiet poster, each post is about the same as 4 posts from other people 4498 - answers to many people, defensive on activity (post could have been split into 7 smaller posts), reading thread every day, dlwktb most suspicious 4745 - usually votes for people who leave the smallest trail, gives proxy to MrsFrog 5044 - agrees with AA's switch, but doesnt agree with asking for proxies. request for how to post vote totals, hotkarl most suspicious 5430 - give proxy to udjw along with instructions, dino most suspicious 5891 - long death scenes are bad, people who log on around 4pm or later get more scrutiny, WadotNChew most suspicious only the hunches and opinions: Could be EC because - no idea Might be (Not is, might be!) innocent because - no idea Neutral thoughts - none
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Rock Chalk Jayhawk, Go KU!
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#6149
12-02-2007, 10:17 PM
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Good summaries BS! Here are two clarifications on posts where you thought I looked suspicious:
Quote:
Quote:
Hope that helps!
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#6150
12-02-2007, 10:53 PM
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justkay
only the facts: (I'm not listing every post, just posts that looked notable as I read them) 1388 - The Excel random number generator is bad! (game begins) 2573 - oops, didnt know wasnt supposed to delete post 2739 - will join everyone else and stone Kenshiro (after he was already dead and innocent) 2746 - defensive, thought people could unvote above threshold, didnt know 18 = dead 2959 - top 5, Will most suspicious 3181 - Browncost suspicious for disappearing 3196 - confused about how KAIA works 3205 and 3702 - Werewold wasnt framed, looks like a slip-up 3570 - defensive, busy, no one is standing out as EC 4070 - defensive, takes most of lunch break to catch up, limited time, trying to participate and throw out theories, not sure who is guilty yet 4120 - defensive, not EC, I'm just new. Either Browncoat or Werewolf are EC 4196 - AO Watcher's cheating strategy is suspicious 4477 - AA, and Browncoat/Werewolf most suspicious 4627 and 4645 - kohl suspicious for not explaining reasons for votes, which is worse than low post-count 4830 - AA most suspicious for late swing 4951 - kohl's comment asking if there will be another dark horse is interesting, but he isnt suspicious. CLW is suspicious for switching from Browncoat to AO Watcher, Dictator suspicious for voting for cgnech. Looks like EC protected werewolf by trying to get another bandwagon going 4952 - Werewolf most suspicious 5064 - agrees with harvma that we need to give others heat, switch to hotkarl (retracts 5064, hotkarl also was given heat already, but keep vote on hk for now) 5499 - mica most suspicious, doesnt believe "she" explanation 5770 - someone very experienced is leading the EC, kohl and kiwi most suspicious 5929 - private alliances are bad, makes it harder to analyze early votes and puts new players at a disadvantage only the hunches and opinions: Could be EC because - 2739 and 2746 - this could easily go either way. Either this is a great EC cover (IS making rookie mistake, no way an EC would do this, take your pick) or it really is a newbie mistake. Might be (Not is, might be!) innocent because - maybe a newbie EC would have other EC to talk to and answer any newbie questions? The other EC would probably make sure she looked decent. Neutral thoughts - 4645 - hard to say whats worse really, an unexplained top-5 and votes can still be a little informative, super-quiet people dont leave much of a trail Not much else to go on, I think justkay is a very time-limited player who is trying to participate
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Rock Chalk Jayhawk, Go KU!
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