The Future of Social Security

[campbell]

I believe there are some kind of baby payments in France and Australia.

Not sure how well that is working out for them.

[SirVLCIV]

Originally Posted by Locrian

The tax credits & deductions for children are so small I wouldn’t think we’d see any impact on fertility from them.

Social Security – SSI Disability + Medicare – Medicare premiums = about $1 trillion we transfer to the elderly each year. What is spent on children? $30 billion in tax credits/deductions (my est, offer if you have a better figure), $70 billion in education, some portion of Medicaid – maybe $200 billion? We spend a fifth as much on the future populace as we do on people who are no longer working.

Let’s try an experiment and switch them. We’ll cut SS and Medicare down and make $1 trillion available for kids. My rough estimate says that we could pay for everything child related we’re paying for now and then write $9,000 per child per year checks to families.

Think that would increase fertility?

I'm not saying we should do that (it just turns the problem on its head) I’m just saying we have something of an unusual coincidence going on here: our government transfers massive amounts of wealth from working families that could have children to the elderly, and we have a growing elderly/worker ratio. I mean, I’m sure they’re completely unrelated, but it’s an awful funny coincidence.

What's our budget on keeping out immigrants (who generally bring children (current or future) with them)?

[campbell]

Originally Posted by SirVLCIV

What's our budget on keeping out immigrants (who generally bring children (current or future) with them)?

You can go here:

http://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2011/documentation_2011.pdf

And find out their immigration assumptions. 1.5 seems to be the bit for illegal immigration and 1.3 for legal immigration.

I don't know if they factor in any appreciable amount of payroll taxes from illegal immigrants using somebody else's SSN (not sure how that all teases out), but I assume some of the births they assume in there come from immigrants, whether illegal or legal, as the children would all be U.S. citizens.

[bdschobel]

Originally Posted by campbell

...I assume some of the births they assume in there come from immigrants, whether illegal or legal, as the children would all be U.S. citizens.

That's correct.

Bruce

[SirVLCIV]

Originally Posted by campbell

You can go here:

http://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2011/documentation_2011.pdf

And find out their immigration assumptions. 1.5 seems to be the bit for illegal immigration and 1.3 for legal immigration.

I don't know if they factor in any appreciable amount of payroll taxes from illegal immigrants using somebody else's SSN (not sure how that all teases out), but I assume some of the births they assume in there come from immigrants, whether illegal or legal, as the children would all be U.S. citizens.

Oh, I meant, how much money do we spend enforcing immigration laws (deportation proceedings, 'building a wall', etc.)?

Immigrants tend to be younger, and tend to produce lots of children, which is good for a country that is starting to age.

[campbell]

Originally Posted by SirVLCIV

Oh, I meant, how much money do we spend enforcing immigration laws (deportation proceedings, 'building a wall', etc.)?

Immigrants tend to be younger, and tend to produce lots of children, which is good for a country that is starting to age.

Maybe you should hire an immigrant to google this info for you.

[Locrian]

Originally Posted by SirVLCIV

What's our budget on keeping out immigrants (who generally bring children (current or future) with them)?

My brief google suggests it's extremely small; so small I don’t think it ties into that particular post I made.

However I definitely see your point and think it should be part of the discussion. If part of our problem is that the ratio of retirees to workers is getting too high, why do we keep so many workers from legally entering the country?

One answer might be that we don't seem lacking in available labor now, given the unemployment and underemployment rates. Some may find that less than convincing.

[fargo]

This is a great thread. I started it from post #1 a few weeks ago and am making my way through it, as an interested novice in SS and Medicare.

Anyway, ungood news on the updated trustee report
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...094040414.html

Social Security and Medicare, the two largest portions of the federal safety net, continued to deteriorate in the last year, with the programs' trustees projecting the combined Social Security retirement and disability programs will exhaust their trust fund three years sooner than previously thought.

[Snagus]

3 years is a huge change. I might just have to look into the trustees report to see why.

[bdschobel]

It's a big change but far from unprecedented. I wouldn't call it huge. The last 25 or so Trustees Reports have been fundamentally the same.

Bruce