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  #1  
Old 05-04-2012, 08:30 PM
smekta smekta is offline
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Default Entering the developing market at a bad time

I did it, and saw a 6% drop in 3 days . Gazprom and BIDU really let me down.
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Old 05-04-2012, 09:07 PM
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Gazprom? That ain't "developing" that's "government monopoling".
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Old 05-05-2012, 02:58 PM
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could see a move down and down large this coming week. after that, cycle work says a low should be close then a fierce summer rally to new highs.
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Old 05-05-2012, 11:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smekta View Post
I did it, and saw a 6% drop in 3 days . Gazprom and BIDU really let me down.
BIDU is a VIE structure. I think cramer says that bidu is the only company worthwile. Personally I woudln't invest in a single chinese company until they allow direct ownership by foreigners AND inforce contracts.
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Old 05-06-2012, 12:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lulzEMH View Post
BIDU is a VIE structure. I think cramer says that bidu is the only company worthwile. Personally I woudln't invest in a single chinese company until they allow direct ownership by foreigners AND inforce contracts.
Long term investment? Sure. But given the public perception of the rapidly growing tech base in China, the stock price is bound to ride higher and higher, and public perception is what ultimately drives that price in the short term. The PLA government is keen on supporting domestic brands, so the risk of competitive pressures are greatly reduced. Direct ownership of vital/profitable ventures is hopeless dream

And as far as Gazprom, it's underpriced, at least in the long term. The pipeline network worth hundreds of billions of dollars is there, but public perception of Russia as an unstable supplier are keeping the price in the gutter.
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Old 05-06-2012, 07:05 AM
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Gazprom is run by the Russian government, who doesn't give two shits about foriegn shareholders, they only care about extracting profits to keep their patronage machine running well. It's like Venezuela or Mexico's state owned oil companies, they may start out great expropriating lots of stuff from foriegners, but with decades of gross mismanagement they end up lucky if they can still get any oil out of the ground.
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Old 05-06-2012, 04:08 PM
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Gazproms main export is natural gas, not oil. And what mismanagement of funds do you know of? Nobody would sign a multi-billion dollar investment to construct a pipeline if they expected the supplier to fizzle out in the next 10-20 years.
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Old 05-06-2012, 04:15 PM
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If western Europe gets over their hang ups on fracking they wouldn't need to import the Russian gas, so the pipelines would be worthless. Also if Russia decides to punish the west, for say cracking down on Syria or Iran, they'll do it by shutting off the gas. Gazprom is correctly viewed by investors as an arm of the Russian government, so it can't be valued in the typical western sense where you think the investors actually own it.

Same problem with any firm in China, investors have no rights in these countries so there is much higher risk.
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Old 05-06-2012, 04:34 PM
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If western Europe gets over their hang ups on fracking they wouldn't need to import the Russian gas, so the pipelines would be worthless. Also if Russia decides to punish the west, for say cracking down on Syria or Iran, they'll do it by shutting off the gas. Gazprom is correctly viewed by investors as an arm of the Russian government, so it can't be valued in the typical western sense where you think the investors actually own it.

Same problem with any firm in China, investors have no rights in these countries so there is much higher risk.
Thats complete nonsense. Gazprom is a profit driven company, not to mention that it accounts for a massive chunk of Russia's GDP, to do anything like turning off the gas as a way to put political pressure on anyone would be idiotic. Only disruptions to this day were the result of the ex-Soviet satellite states either not being able to pay their share or attempting to extort a lower price through massive tariff increases(which is why the new pipelines go around the troubled countries).

The eurozone natural gas reserves pale in comparison to what Russian has on hand. Fracking or not, EU is a much more densely populated area to avoid seeing some serious repercussions from starting to pull out natural gas from under itself. And at the end of the day, it could only be a short term solution since there are no major gas fields that could act as a primary hub of sorts.
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Old 05-06-2012, 04:45 PM
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you said it yourself right there, Gazprom is a large chunck of Russia's GDP, who do you think Gazprom is serving, foriegn investors, or Russian oligarchs?
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