Originally Posted by tfoster
I agree with you Fianchetto. If the question asked for the expected time to failure from decrement 2 instead of decrment 1 and following that logic you would get 0.8. Just doesn't make sense given the force of mortality is 25% of decrement 1.
Your link isn't working for me.
And yes, if you're given
that the death is from decrement 1, then I agree the expected time until failure would be shorter than if you were given
that the death is from decrement 2. However, you're not given
anything. The writer of this question should not have used the notation E[T | J=1] because it suggests conditional expectation, but the written description does not suggest that.
If you can tell the difference between what the notation is asking for and what the wording is asking for, then it boils down to: which one did they really mean to ask? From historically discrepancies, my bet is that the wording
reflects what the CAS intended to ask, and the notation
was just poorly chosen, as it led to misinterpretations.