Gronkowski first round?

[SirVLCIV]

Originally Posted by yankeetripper

Can you tell me who I'm picking with the 10th pick?

I have you with DMC or Forte. I have one keeper question and a couple guys that might slip lower than I have then valued at, which might make neither available.

[SirVLCIV]

A lot hinges on if MJD reports this week.

[tommie frazier]

wait-why is this league not auctioning the players?

[V1per41]

Originally Posted by greenman

Say it goes Foster then McCoy or Rice (like I'm guessing many drafts are). Who does your model tell you to take at #3?

It puts Aaron Rodgers at #2, so he would be my 3rd pick.

Originally Posted by tommie frazier

wait-why is this league not auctioning the players?

Most people aren't that into fantasy football. An auction draft, wile I agree is the most fair way to do it, is seen as too much work for nearly everyone involved.

[tommie frazier]

get them hooked. auction day is the best day of the year every year. bar none.

[Ultimate Anyone?]

Originally Posted by tommie frazier

get them hooked. auction day is the best day of the year every year. bar none.

[erosewater]

auctions suck

[tommie frazier]

Originally Posted by erosewater

auctions suck

your wrong

[3rookie]

Originally Posted by V1per41

Ok, played around with my algorithm a little more and consulted a few other sites to get a more even stats projection. As a result Gronk dropped from 3rd to 5th overall. The largest reason was that NFL.com was, as mentioned earlier, way undervaluing Jimmy Graham.

It looks now to me that Calvin Johnson get's me the most bang for my buck here (assuming Foster & Rodgers are gone). Then Likely Graham in Rd 2 and Vick in Rd 3.

That gives me a 40-60 point season bonus on most TEs, and 60-70 on #1 WRs, which IMO more than makes up for the drop in RB & QB Score from not picking one of those in round 1.

I think you overvalue the effect of taking Gronk at pick #3. Once Graham and Gronk are gone, then I'm waiting until Round 10 to pick the #10 TE. I do think there is value at your #18 pick for Graham/Gronk.

The same logic applies to QB in your 10-team league. If the right QB wasn't available at the right time, then I don't care whether I get the #8 or #13 QB, so I can wait. I can even rotate 2 QBs if I need to, which could increase the EV vs. going with the same mid-level guy each week no matter what.

Originally Posted by V1per41

I'm comparing them both the next best player at that position, and the player at that position who is likely to be available for my next pick.

So assume Foster & Rodgers go 1-2.

If I pass up Calvin Johnson, I likely get left with Roddy White - a loss of 58 points at WR, and would miss out on gaining a 46 point lead on the second best WR

If I were to pick Ray Rice at #3, I only gain 6 points on the next best RB (McCoy in my model), and avoid losing 46 points by waiting one round - for a Trent Richardson.

There is an argument for Calvin, only if you are totally sold on your projections. I'm never sold on projections - they are a guide. Personally I would take Rice/McCoy, let everyone else fight for the next tier of RBs, and take best available in Round 2-3 (RB/WR/QB/Graham).

Because your bench is only 5 players, there are going to be playable WR/TEs on the waiver wire every week. I would have a bias toward RB in your league, and draft as if I need to start 3RB/2WR.

[rekrap]

Originally Posted by 3rookie

There is an argument for Calvin, only if you are totally sold on your projections. I'm never sold on projections - they are a guide.

I'm surprised by how often people, even actuaries, take the projections of fantasy points as "gospel", so to speak, and get married to that number.

Like anything they should come with confidence intervals (based on anything or evertying from historical perfomance, imjury risk, team philosophy/schedule/depth chart), as we all know projective accuracy is a myth.


Going back to the another angle of this argument:
It's even more inportant in a H2H league. Arian Foster and Michael Vick are just as good an example of Gronk as an injury risk, so that while the expectation is high, and there's upside even above that, there's also a big potential for zero points in some weeks, if they have to sit out.

And if you spent your first round pick on Foster, second on Gronk and third on Vick, you're really not going to enjoy watching the games hoping they don't get hurt. Sure, anyone can get hurt (e.g., Brady in week 1 a few years back), but some players have a tendency to miss games year in and year out... and that fact should be accounted for in their fantasy point expectation.