2012 MSC Problems

[Sweet Tooth]

That's the most likely pattern, yes. He might also be 5=3=3=2 and unwilling to have opened 1NT or rebid 3H, but both less likely than this 'maximum likelihood estimator' scenario. Assuming that he probably has 'about' 17HCP, maybe 16 or maybe 18, perhaps a hand generator can provide some statistical information. Steve, aren't you the expert on that?

Originally Posted by oirg

Given the 2N bid, I expect partner's hand to be 5-2-4-2. I expect him to lose 3 heart tricks, and a trick in each minor or 2 diamond tricks.

[Steve White]

With only Numbers Nerd left to opine, the consensus is becoming pretty clear.

              A   B   C   D    E    F    G    H
LM            Dbl 2NT 1NT 2D   P    6;4S 4D   HJ
oirg          Dbl 2NT P   P    P    6;4S Dbl  S4
SW            3NT 2NT 2H  P    3NT  6;4S 4D   S4
Falco         Dbl 2H  P   1S   3C   6;4S 4D   S4
ST            Dbl 2NT 2C  2D   3NT  6;4S 4D   S4
BTDT          Dbl 3NT P   1D   P    6;6H 5D   S8
NN
JJ            Dbl 2NT P   2D   3NT  6;4S 4D   S8
kmbrunskill   Dbl 3NT P   1S   3NT  6;4S Dbl  S8
Leading       Dbl 2NT P        3NT  6;4S 4D   S4???

2D has a plurality on D, and I'll probably go with that even if NN creates a tie for the top spot by passing. The two votes for a 1 bid are more like 2D than P.
I'm having reservations about my choice of the S4 on H. It's hard to see how the spade 4 could be better than the spade 8, and it could be worse. E.g. Dummy has Q95. Declarer has AK62. If we lead the 8, partner does not need to play his J from J3, and we hold declarer to 3 spade tricks. If we lead the 4, declarer could pick up the suit. He might not pick it up, but he could.

If anyone has a good reason for the spade 4 over the spade 8, they should state it, otherwise don't be surprised if I switch my vote and the consensus becomes the 8, even if NN votes for the 4.

[Steve White]

Originally Posted by Sweet Tooth

That's the most likely pattern, yes. He might also be 5=3=3=2 and unwilling to have opened 1NT or rebid 3H, but both less likely than this 'maximum likelihood estimator' scenario. Assuming that he probably has 'about' 17HCP, maybe 16 or maybe 18, perhaps a hand generator can provide some statistical information. Steve, aren't you the expert on that?

I don't have a useful hand generator. I will observe that AQJxx Ax KQxx xx, which in my opinion is light for 2NT, though admittedly carefully chosen, makes 3NT a favorite.

[kmbrunskill]

I have no good reason for the spade 8 either.

I'm actually curious to see arguments towards which spade to lead, and whether it even matters.

[E. Blackadder]

Originally Posted by Sweet Tooth

On A doubling with a stiff heart is incredibly, INCREDIBLY repulsive.

Sure, but we don't have a natural, strength-showing, 4 bid. This is why one doesn't lard up the structure with lots of conventional bids. Oh, wait...

[E. Blackadder]

Originally Posted by Steve White

I don't have a useful hand generator. I will observe that AQJxx Ax KQxx xx, which in my opinion is light for 2NT, though admittedly carefully chosen, makes 3NT a favorite.

The extended Culbertson's rule, as stated in Rubens' book, is, more-or-less "If a perfect minimum in partner's hand -- and so you are allowed to carefully choose partner's hypothetical hand -- makes the (game or slam) contract cold, invite."

Against that, In-and-out valuation is favorable for the hand, and against that is that this is matchpoints.

Yikes! They want over $1,000 for some versions of the accursed book. At that price, I'm willing to sell.

[oirg]

2 other things to consider on hand E:

you'll be playing it, and
the stronger hand will be exposed in dummy

Perhaps it's the type of hand where the play is not really important if you have the right cards.

[E. Blackadder]

Originally Posted by oirg

you'll be playing it,

perhaps that's why I pass and SW bids 3NT. I wonder if the scoring will take that into account.

[oirg]

Originally Posted by E. Blackadder

perhaps that's why I pass and SW bids 3NT. I wonder if the scoring will take that into account.

I passed too.

[Sweet Tooth]

Steve's logic for the spade 8 is strong, and I could not come up with anyhing not-to-obscure to find its drawbacks. Will the expert panel recognize its superiority? Also, I never saw the final submissions, and I guess NNdidn't enter this month.

Originally Posted by kmbrunskill

I have no good reason for the spade 8 either.

I'm actually curious to see arguments towards which spade to lead, and whether it even matters.