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 Bridge Sub-Forums: Frequency and Severity

#311
08-07-2012, 10:51 AM
 Sweet Tooth Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 813

That's the most likely pattern, yes. He might also be 5=3=3=2 and unwilling to have opened 1NT or rebid 3H, but both less likely than this 'maximum likelihood estimator' scenario. Assuming that he probably has 'about' 17HCP, maybe 16 or maybe 18, perhaps a hand generator can provide some statistical information. Steve, aren't you the expert on that?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by oirg Given the 2N bid, I expect partner's hand to be 5-2-4-2. I expect him to lose 3 heart tricks, and a trick in each minor or 2 diamond tricks.
#312
08-07-2012, 09:56 PM
 Steve White Site Supporter Site Supporter Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 2,017

With only Numbers Nerd left to opine, the consensus is becoming pretty clear.
Code:
```              A   B   C   D    E    F    G    H
LM            Dbl 2NT 1NT 2D   P    6;4S 4D   HJ
oirg          Dbl 2NT P   P    P    6;4S Dbl  S4
SW            3NT 2NT 2H  P    3NT  6;4S 4D   S4
Falco         Dbl 2H  P   1S   3C   6;4S 4D   S4
ST            Dbl 2NT 2C  2D   3NT  6;4S 4D   S4
BTDT          Dbl 3NT P   1D   P    6;6H 5D   S8
NN
JJ            Dbl 2NT P   2D   3NT  6;4S 4D   S8
kmbrunskill   Dbl 3NT P   1S   3NT  6;4S Dbl  S8
Leading       Dbl 2NT P        3NT  6;4S 4D   S4???```
2D has a plurality on D, and I'll probably go with that even if NN creates a tie for the top spot by passing. The two votes for a 1 bid are more like 2D than P.
I'm having reservations about my choice of the S4 on H. It's hard to see how the spade 4 could be better than the spade 8, and it could be worse. E.g. Dummy has Q95. Declarer has AK62. If we lead the 8, partner does not need to play his J from J3, and we hold declarer to 3 spade tricks. If we lead the 4, declarer could pick up the suit. He might not pick it up, but he could.

If anyone has a good reason for the spade 4 over the spade 8, they should state it, otherwise don't be surprised if I switch my vote and the consensus becomes the 8, even if NN votes for the 4.
#313
08-07-2012, 09:59 PM
 Steve White Site Supporter Site Supporter Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 2,017

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Sweet Tooth That's the most likely pattern, yes. He might also be 5=3=3=2 and unwilling to have opened 1NT or rebid 3H, but both less likely than this 'maximum likelihood estimator' scenario. Assuming that he probably has 'about' 17HCP, maybe 16 or maybe 18, perhaps a hand generator can provide some statistical information. Steve, aren't you the expert on that?
I don't have a useful hand generator. I will observe that AQJxx Ax KQxx xx, which in my opinion is light for 2NT, though admittedly carefully chosen, makes 3NT a favorite.
#314
08-07-2012, 10:31 PM
 kmbrunskill Member Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 374

I have no good reason for the spade 8 either.

I'm actually curious to see arguments towards which spade to lead, and whether it even matters.
#315
08-07-2012, 10:44 PM
 E. Blackadder Member Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Not far from US 1. Favorite beer: Beer?! Blech. But Dad likes Dortmunder Union. Posts: 20,837 Blog Entries: 1

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Sweet Tooth On A doubling with a stiff heart is incredibly, INCREDIBLY repulsive.
Sure, but we don't have a natural, strength-showing, 4 bid. This is why one doesn't lard up the structure with lots of conventional bids. Oh, wait...
__________________
If once a man indulges himself in murder, very soon he comes to think little of robbing; and from robbing he comes next to drinking and Sabbath-breaking, and from that to incivility and procrastination. Once begun upon this downward path, you never know where you are to stop. Many a man has dated his ruin from some murder or other that perhaps he thought little of
at the time.
#316
08-07-2012, 11:07 PM
 E. Blackadder Member Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Not far from US 1. Favorite beer: Beer?! Blech. But Dad likes Dortmunder Union. Posts: 20,837 Blog Entries: 1

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Steve White I don't have a useful hand generator. I will observe that AQJxx Ax KQxx xx, which in my opinion is light for 2NT, though admittedly carefully chosen, makes 3NT a favorite.
The extended Culbertson's rule, as stated in Rubens' book, is, more-or-less "If a perfect minimum in partner's hand -- and so you are allowed to carefully choose partner's hypothetical hand -- makes the (game or slam) contract cold, invite."

Against that, In-and-out valuation is favorable for the hand, and against that is that this is matchpoints.

Yikes! They want over \$1,000 for some versions of the accursed book. At that price, I'm willing to sell.
__________________
If once a man indulges himself in murder, very soon he comes to think little of robbing; and from robbing he comes next to drinking and Sabbath-breaking, and from that to incivility and procrastination. Once begun upon this downward path, you never know where you are to stop. Many a man has dated his ruin from some murder or other that perhaps he thought little of
at the time.
#317
08-08-2012, 11:15 AM
 oirg Member CAS Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 6,270

2 other things to consider on hand E:

you'll be playing it, and
the stronger hand will be exposed in dummy

Perhaps it's the type of hand where the play is not really important if you have the right cards.
#318
08-08-2012, 02:47 PM
 E. Blackadder Member Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Not far from US 1. Favorite beer: Beer?! Blech. But Dad likes Dortmunder Union. Posts: 20,837 Blog Entries: 1

Quote:
 Originally Posted by oirg you'll be playing it,
perhaps that's why I pass and SW bids 3NT. I wonder if the scoring will take that into account.
__________________
If once a man indulges himself in murder, very soon he comes to think little of robbing; and from robbing he comes next to drinking and Sabbath-breaking, and from that to incivility and procrastination. Once begun upon this downward path, you never know where you are to stop. Many a man has dated his ruin from some murder or other that perhaps he thought little of
at the time.
#319
08-08-2012, 03:34 PM
 oirg Member CAS Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 6,270

Quote:
 Originally Posted by E. Blackadder perhaps that's why I pass and SW bids 3NT. I wonder if the scoring will take that into account.
I passed too.
#320
08-12-2012, 07:49 AM
 Sweet Tooth Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 813

Steve's logic for the spade 8 is strong, and I could not come up with anyhing not-to-obscure to find its drawbacks. Will the expert panel recognize its superiority? Also, I never saw the final submissions, and I guess NNdidn't enter this month.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by kmbrunskill I have no good reason for the spade 8 either. I'm actually curious to see arguments towards which spade to lead, and whether it even matters.

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