Self Driving Autos

[r. mutt]

Originally Posted by twig93

2019? Mass produced? In-service as taxicabs? I will take the over, thanks!

Originally Posted by JMO

Me too. (not intending RN)

I dunno. I've been a skeptic throughout this thread, but keep your locations manageable enough (good weather, reasonable traffic markers and drivers) and you could probably get something out there, by December of 2019.

[twig93]

Originally Posted by r. mutt

I dunno. I've been a skeptic throughout this thread, but keep your locations manageable enough (good weather, reasonable traffic markers and drivers) and you could probably get something out there, by December of 2019.

All right, for the purposes of my "I'll take the over" statement, I'm going to define "mass produced and in service" as meaning that there are at least 1,500 cars produced and at least 1,000 in service by 12/31/2019, capable of traveling wherever a passenger wants to travel in the metro area where deployed at approximately the same speed a human-operated taxi would travel.

That seems like a pretty modest definition of "mass produced". I read recently that Honda's factory in Ohio is producing 1,800 cars PER DAY, so this is less than one day's production.

Edited to add blue section to further clarify what "in service" means.

[r. mutt]

Originally Posted by twig93

All right, for the purposes of my "I'll take the over" statement, I'm going to define "mass produced and in service" as meaning that there are at least 1,500 cars produced and at least 1,000 in service by 12/31/2019.

That seems like a pretty modest definition of "mass produced". I read recently that Honda's factory in Ohio is producing 1,800 cars PER DAY, so this is less than one day's production.

All right, reasonable enough, but I'll take the under on that. Two or three hundred seems stretch, but doable.

[JMO]

Taxi cabs with no driver? How will people know who/how much to tip?

As for over/under, what good is a taxi if you can only ride it in daylight/good weather? Or will they be more like shuttles that only go on specific routes? Those with such restrictions aren't really self-driving IMO. Just sayin'

[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by JMO

Taxi cabs with no driver? How will people know who/how much to tip?

As for over/under, what good is a taxi if you can only ride it in daylight/good weather? Or will they be more like shuttles that only go on specific routes? Those with such restrictions aren't really self-driving IMO. Just sayin'

not level 5, but definitely a step in that direction

[r. mutt]

Originally Posted by JMO

Taxi cabs with no driver? How will people know who/how much to tip?

As for over/under, what good is a taxi if you can only ride it in daylight/good weather? Or will they be more like shuttles that only go on specific routes? Those with such restrictions aren't really self-driving IMO. Just sayin'

Originally Posted by Gonzo

not level 5, but definitely a step in that direction

Agreed. And Level 5 has always been a bit of a sci-fi distraction to what Level 4 can do.

To answer JMO's question, they would not go on specific routes, but would nonetheless likely be contained to a specific geography. From my perspective, if I can fly into Boca Raton on a weekend and the cab will take me to my friend's house (locally) or any hotel, that's pretty amazing technologically. Is it actually useful? Mmmmm...maybe not so much.

[twig93]

Originally Posted by JMO

Taxi cabs with no driver? How will people know who/how much to tip?

As for over/under, what good is a taxi if you can only ride it in daylight/good weather? Or will they be more like shuttles that only go on specific routes? Those with such restrictions aren't really self-driving IMO. Just sayin'

Amending my "over/under" to clarify that "in service" means "in service as a taxicab capable of going wherever the passenger wants to go (within reason) at approximately the same speed a human-operated taxi would travel." I think low-speed driverless shuttles that only go on a short predetermined route are already a thing in Las Vegas.

[Sredni Vashtar]

Originally Posted by twig93

Amending my "over/under" to clarify that "in service" means "in service as a taxicab capable of going wherever the passenger wants to go (within reason) at approximately the same speed a human-operated taxi would travel." I think low-speed driverless shuttles that only go on a short predetermined route are already a thing in Las Vegas.

I wouldn't be surprised if the first commercial "self-driving" fleet is complemented by Uber/Lyft. So you pull out your cellphone, plug in your destination, and either a robot or a person shows up depending on circumstances.

Certainly you can complain and say "hey that's not really self driving" but nobody will be in the car to hear you.

[Incredible Hulctuary]

Self-driving cars will never be perfect at avoiding crashes in every situation.

As long as cars are around, there will be car insurance, although it's possible the liability portion of that insurance will eventually be the responsibility of the car manufacturers, with individual car owners only having to worry about insurance for theft, vandalism, and acts of nature.

[twig93]

Originally Posted by Sredni Vashtar

I wouldn't be surprised if the first commercial "self-driving" fleet is complemented by Uber/Lyft. So you pull out your cellphone, plug in your destination, and either a robot or a person shows up depending on circumstances.

Certainly you can complain and say "hey that's not really self driving" but nobody will be in the car to hear you.

Depends on how limited the self-driving car circumstances are I guess. If it could do basically everything except an airport drop-off / pickup (which can be particularly crazy right at the airport) and some weird addresses that most GPS struggle with too, I'll allow it.

If it can't get me from my ordinary single-family house on an ordinary street to my favorite restaurant to the arts center where the opera/symphony/ballet/theater group performs or the sports arena/stadium/field where the local teams play to my favorite bar and back home... then I wouldn't call that a self-driving car.