Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Actuarial Discussion Forum > Property - Casualty / General Insurance
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions


Not looking for a job? Tell us about your ideal job,
and we'll only contact you when it opens up.
https://www.dwsimpson.com/register


View Poll Results: Will self driving autos kill car insurance?
Of course 39 16.32%
Maybe but not for a long time 172 71.97%
I'm a luddite... 28 11.72%
Voters: 239. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1771  
Old 01-12-2018, 10:51 PM
r. mutt's Avatar
r. mutt r. mutt is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Extreme fever swamps of the left
Posts: 10,130
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by twig93 View Post
2019? Mass produced? In-service as taxicabs? I will take the over, thanks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by JMO View Post
Me too. (not intending RN)
I dunno. I've been a skeptic throughout this thread, but keep your locations manageable enough (good weather, reasonable traffic markers and drivers) and you could probably get something out there, by December of 2019.
__________________
(\ (\
( ^_^)
(_(")(") It all comes full akchigs eventually. ~ Full-On Devi
Reply With Quote
  #1772  
Old 01-15-2018, 10:05 AM
twig93's Avatar
twig93 twig93 is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 27,582
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by r. mutt View Post
I dunno. I've been a skeptic throughout this thread, but keep your locations manageable enough (good weather, reasonable traffic markers and drivers) and you could probably get something out there, by December of 2019.
All right, for the purposes of my "I'll take the over" statement, I'm going to define "mass produced and in service" as meaning that there are at least 1,500 cars produced and at least 1,000 in service by 12/31/2019, capable of traveling wherever a passenger wants to travel in the metro area where deployed at approximately the same speed a human-operated taxi would travel.

That seems like a pretty modest definition of "mass produced". I read recently that Honda's factory in Ohio is producing 1,800 cars PER DAY, so this is less than one day's production.

Edited to add blue section to further clarify what "in service" means.
__________________
Originally Posted by Gandalf
The thing that is clearest is twig's advice

Last edited by twig93; 01-16-2018 at 03:52 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #1773  
Old 01-15-2018, 06:08 PM
r. mutt's Avatar
r. mutt r. mutt is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Extreme fever swamps of the left
Posts: 10,130
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by twig93 View Post
All right, for the purposes of my "I'll take the over" statement, I'm going to define "mass produced and in service" as meaning that there are at least 1,500 cars produced and at least 1,000 in service by 12/31/2019.

That seems like a pretty modest definition of "mass produced". I read recently that Honda's factory in Ohio is producing 1,800 cars PER DAY, so this is less than one day's production.
All right, reasonable enough, but I'll take the under on that. Two or three hundred seems stretch, but doable.
__________________
(\ (\
( ^_^)
(_(")(") It all comes full akchigs eventually. ~ Full-On Devi
Reply With Quote
  #1774  
Old 01-15-2018, 06:27 PM
JMO's Avatar
JMO JMO is offline
Carol Marler
Non-Actuary
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Back home again in Indiana
Studying for Nothing actuarial.
Posts: 37,004
Default

Taxi cabs with no driver? How will people know who/how much to tip?

As for over/under, what good is a taxi if you can only ride it in daylight/good weather? Or will they be more like shuttles that only go on specific routes? Those with such restrictions aren't really self-driving IMO. Just sayin'
__________________
Carol Marler, "Just My Opinion"

Pluto is no longer a planet and I am no longer an actuary. Please take my opinions as non-actuarial.


My latest favorite quotes, updated Apr 5, 2018.

Spoiler:
I should keep these four permanently.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rekrap View Post
JMO is right
Quote:
Originally Posted by campbell View Post
I agree with JMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Westley View Post
And def agree w/ JMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MG View Post
This. And everything else JMO wrote.
And this all purpose permanent quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr T Non-Fan View Post
Yup, it is always someone else's fault.
MORE:
All purpose response for careers forum:
Quote:
Originally Posted by DoctorNo View Post
Depends upon the employer and the situation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sredni Vashtar View Post
I feel like ERM is 90% buzzwords, and that the underlying agenda is to make sure at least one of your Corporate Officers is not dumb.
Reply With Quote
  #1775  
Old 01-15-2018, 07:26 PM
Gonzo's Avatar
Gonzo Gonzo is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: gonzo.
Studying for gonzo?
Favorite beer: gonzo!
Posts: 8,507
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JMO View Post
Taxi cabs with no driver? How will people know who/how much to tip?

As for over/under, what good is a taxi if you can only ride it in daylight/good weather? Or will they be more like shuttles that only go on specific routes? Those with such restrictions aren't really self-driving IMO. Just sayin'
not level 5, but definitely a step in that direction
Reply With Quote
  #1776  
Old 01-16-2018, 07:34 AM
r. mutt's Avatar
r. mutt r. mutt is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Extreme fever swamps of the left
Posts: 10,130
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JMO View Post
Taxi cabs with no driver? How will people know who/how much to tip?

As for over/under, what good is a taxi if you can only ride it in daylight/good weather? Or will they be more like shuttles that only go on specific routes? Those with such restrictions aren't really self-driving IMO. Just sayin'
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
not level 5, but definitely a step in that direction
Agreed. And Level 5 has always been a bit of a sci-fi distraction to what Level 4 can do.

To answer JMO's question, they would not go on specific routes, but would nonetheless likely be contained to a specific geography. From my perspective, if I can fly into Boca Raton on a weekend and the cab will take me to my friend's house (locally) or any hotel, that's pretty amazing technologically. Is it actually useful? Mmmmm...maybe not so much.
__________________
(\ (\
( ^_^)
(_(")(") It all comes full akchigs eventually. ~ Full-On Devi
Reply With Quote
  #1777  
Old 01-16-2018, 03:48 PM
twig93's Avatar
twig93 twig93 is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 27,582
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JMO View Post
Taxi cabs with no driver? How will people know who/how much to tip?

As for over/under, what good is a taxi if you can only ride it in daylight/good weather? Or will they be more like shuttles that only go on specific routes? Those with such restrictions aren't really self-driving IMO. Just sayin'
Amending my "over/under" to clarify that "in service" means "in service as a taxicab capable of going wherever the passenger wants to go (within reason) at approximately the same speed a human-operated taxi would travel." I think low-speed driverless shuttles that only go on a short predetermined route are already a thing in Las Vegas.
__________________
Originally Posted by Gandalf
The thing that is clearest is twig's advice
Reply With Quote
  #1778  
Old 01-16-2018, 05:16 PM
Sredni Vashtar's Avatar
Sredni Vashtar Sredni Vashtar is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Favorite beer: pilseners
Posts: 5,495
Blog Entries: 1
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by twig93 View Post
Amending my "over/under" to clarify that "in service" means "in service as a taxicab capable of going wherever the passenger wants to go (within reason) at approximately the same speed a human-operated taxi would travel." I think low-speed driverless shuttles that only go on a short predetermined route are already a thing in Las Vegas.
I wouldn't be surprised if the first commercial "self-driving" fleet is complemented by Uber/Lyft. So you pull out your cellphone, plug in your destination, and either a robot or a person shows up depending on circumstances.

Certainly you can complain and say "hey that's not really self driving" but nobody will be in the car to hear you.
__________________
Sredni Vashtar went forth,
His thoughts were red thoughts and his teeth were white.
His enemies called for peace, but he brought them death.
Sredni Vashtar the Beautiful.

Last edited by Sredni Vashtar; 01-16-2018 at 05:20 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #1779  
Old 01-17-2018, 08:47 AM
Incredible Hulctuary's Avatar
Incredible Hulctuary Incredible Hulctuary is offline
Member
Non-Actuary
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 24,412
Default

Self-driving cars will never be perfect at avoiding crashes in every situation.

As long as cars are around, there will be car insurance, although it's possible the liability portion of that insurance will eventually be the responsibility of the car manufacturers, with individual car owners only having to worry about insurance for theft, vandalism, and acts of nature.
__________________
The forest was shrinking, but the trees kept voting for the axe because its handle was made from wood, and they thought it was one of them.
Reply With Quote
  #1780  
Old 01-17-2018, 11:58 AM
twig93's Avatar
twig93 twig93 is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 27,582
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sredni Vashtar View Post
I wouldn't be surprised if the first commercial "self-driving" fleet is complemented by Uber/Lyft. So you pull out your cellphone, plug in your destination, and either a robot or a person shows up depending on circumstances.

Certainly you can complain and say "hey that's not really self driving" but nobody will be in the car to hear you.
Depends on how limited the self-driving car circumstances are I guess. If it could do basically everything except an airport drop-off / pickup (which can be particularly crazy right at the airport) and some weird addresses that most GPS struggle with too, I'll allow it.

If it can't get me from my ordinary single-family house on an ordinary street to my favorite restaurant to the arts center where the opera/symphony/ballet/theater group performs or the sports arena/stadium/field where the local teams play to my favorite bar and back home... then I wouldn't call that a self-driving car.
__________________
Originally Posted by Gandalf
The thing that is clearest is twig's advice
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:50 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.23569 seconds with 11 queries