Actuarial Outpost Spring 2019 LTAM Progress Thread
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 Long-Term Actuarial Math Old Exam MLC Forum

#81
01-30-2019, 12:08 PM
 Colymbosathon ecplecticos Member Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 6,153

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Chappy I don't fully understand this problem. It is from 15th Edition ASM MLC manual. 11.13 Tx is the future lifetime random variable for (x). An insurance pays 1000 at the moment of death if the integral part of Tx is odd. Otherwise no benefit is paid. mu=.04 delta=.02. What is the expected present value. I got the geometric series part, but missed the part about the payment being equal to the difference between a k-year and a k+1 year deferred insurance. Is this because the payment is made at the moment of death? If so, I'm still fuzzy on how that works.

Let ODD be a policy that pays if the integer part of Tx is odd and EVEN be a policy that pays if it is even. Then if you have both, you have a regular policy.

After one year, if you survive, ODD and EVEN (effectively) reverse roles.

To wit: let p = probability of death during year 1 (I'll let you do the time-value-of-money discounting.)

EVEN = p(death benefit) + (1-p)(ODD)

ODD = p(0) + (1-p)EVEN

regular policy = EVEN + ODD

Take it from there. (This works because the forces of mortality and interest are constant.)
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#82
01-30-2019, 01:48 PM
 Jim Daniel Member SOA Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Davis, CA College: Wabash College B.A. 1962, Stanford Ph.D. 1965 Posts: 2,724

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Chappy I don't fully understand this problem. It is from 15th Edition ASM MLC manual. 11.13 Tx is the future lifetime random variable for (x). An insurance pays 1000 at the moment of death if the integral part of Tx is odd. Otherwise no benefit is paid. mu=.04 delta=.02. What is the expected present value. I got the geometric series part, but missed the part about the payment being equal to the difference between a k-year and a k+1 year deferred insurance. Is this because the payment is made at the moment of death? If so, I'm still fuzzy on how that works.
Regarding the deferred minus deferred. Notice that a 1-yr deferred minus a 2-year deferred only pays in the second year, when K=1. Then a 3-year-deferred minus a 4-year-deferred only pays in the 4th year, when K=3. Et cetera. So you can write the APV as that for
(1-yr-deferred) - (2-yr-deferred) + (3-yr-deferred) - (4-yr-deferred) + (5-yr-deferred) - (6-yr-deferred) + and so on.
Since, under your assumptions, you can easily evaluate the APV of a k-yr-deferred whole-life moment of death insurance on (x) as (v^k)(e^{-k mu})[mu / (mu + delta)], you end up summing an alternating geometric series for the final answer.
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#83
01-31-2019, 09:02 AM
 RiskyBusiness7 Member SOA Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 53

still no word on what the official pass rate was for the fall sitting, right?
#84
01-31-2019, 09:09 AM
 Gandalf Site Supporter Site Supporter SOA Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Middle Earth Posts: 31,348

Quote:
 Originally Posted by RiskyBusiness7 still no word on what the official pass rate was for the fall sitting, right?

753 of 2023 candidates passed (37.2%)
753 of 1641 effective candidates passed (45.9%). Effective candidates are those who scored above 0, probably the candidates who got at least 10 multiple choice questions correct.
#85
02-05-2019, 09:30 PM
 karenyoung SOA Join Date: Aug 2016 Location: Irvine, California Studying for FAP Final Assessment College: UCLA Posts: 16

Hi everyone! I'm willing to give my gently-used LTAM 1st edition 2nd printing ASM manual for free to anybody willing to pick it up. Work is ramping up and it's hard for me to find time/motivation to ship it. Located in Irvine, California. Message me!
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#86
02-07-2019, 03:22 PM
 birdman332 SOA Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 27

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Gandalf Have you commented to the SOA about the difficulty of reading the tables? Size / color / two-sided? That might help future candidates.
Where can you comment/complain about something like this?
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#87
02-07-2019, 03:30 PM
 Gandalf Site Supporter Site Supporter SOA Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Middle Earth Posts: 31,348

Quote:
 Originally Posted by birdman332 Where can you comment/complain about something like this?
email education@soa.org
#88
02-12-2019, 11:36 PM
 james2actuary Member SOA Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 99

Hey guys, Good to have this thread for discussion.

Can anyone analyse me where I stand rightnow? I am scared that I might not make into next attempt.

1. I did survival from ASM including all exercise questions to built strong base, took me 20 days.
2. I moved to CA from Inusrance section and now I stand at Reserves section, markov chain to start in 2 to 3 days.
3. I am doing only assignments + Examples from CA manual without looking at them and doing well at them, may be 80%. It seems they are easy one and exam is gonna be tough. Although, first 10 chapters from ASM helped me to build strong foundation of survival probabilities which seems to be key for this exam as of now.
4. I am planning to complete manual before 10 march so I take 50 days for practice questions as I am not using Adapt rightnow. I will need alot of practice.

Any guide that I should follow to prepare in more efficient way?
#89
02-13-2019, 01:14 PM
 Jim Daniel Member SOA Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Davis, CA College: Wabash College B.A. 1962, Stanford Ph.D. 1965 Posts: 2,724
Seminar hotel cutoff

The hotel where I hold my 14 - 20 March face-to-face LTAM seminar has a cutoff of Friday 15 February for the reduced rate for a sleeping room. If you are planning to register for my seminar, you an save a little money by registering for the seminar today or tomorrow.
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#90
02-15-2019, 01:41 AM
 tkt Member CAS SOA Join Date: Jun 2011 Location: Des Moines College: Drake University Posts: 532

Quote:
 Originally Posted by james2actuary Hey guys, Good to have this thread for discussion. Can anyone analyse me where I stand rightnow? I am scared that I might not make into next attempt. 1. I did survival from ASM including all exercise questions to built strong base, took me 20 days. 2. I moved to CA from Inusrance section and now I stand at Reserves section, markov chain to start in 2 to 3 days. 3. I am doing only assignments + Examples from CA manual without looking at them and doing well at them, may be 80%. It seems they are easy one and exam is gonna be tough. Although, first 10 chapters from ASM helped me to build strong foundation of survival probabilities which seems to be key for this exam as of now. 4. I am planning to complete manual before 10 march so I take 50 days for practice questions as I am not using Adapt rightnow. I will need alot of practice. Any guide that I should follow to prepare in more efficient way?
I think you have a solid plan. Most of the assignment questions are taken from the sample or past year questions; it's good that you are doing well at them! For this sitting, we also included written-answer questions in appropriate sections so that will help expose to written-answer questions sooner. Target to spend the last 45 days just on practicing and reviewing. Pay more attention to the written-answer questions, but also don't neglect the multiple-choice questions as well. Focus on the basic principles. When in doubt, utilize our discussion forums.

All the best!
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