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Bridge Sub-Forums: Frequency and Severity

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  #161  
Old 10-18-2019, 10:13 PM
Steve White Steve White is offline
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There were two borderline hands for whether to invite game or force game. We each forced on one, but on opposite sides, and both worked out in my favor. You got a big pickup on board 3 where I first made an unnecessary revealing bid when led to stronger defense, then made some poor choices in play to go down in a game.
Yes, I guess those must have been the two hands I was thinking of. Especially 12, where my 3S invite went down while if forcing to game we reach 3NT which happens to make (roughly 50-50, and it's a vul game), and is certainly more likely to make and with bigger rewards than 3S.

Not sure if the other was 16, except that nothing else seems like it could have been.

I was hoping for a pickup on #1, for bidding a slam that requires a 2-2 break, which works. But not really expecting one.

Meanwhile I lost by 9 to Klaymen. Feels very unlucky. Lost 12 when my RHO at my table, on a different auction than at his, led diamond ace (my suit) against 4H, had his partner show out, and they get two ruffs. (Double dummy it could be made, but I think the successful line is slightly less likely than what I did. But maybe, against likely defense, it would be more likely to work.) At his table, on a different lead, 4H was easy.

Lost 10 when I passed as dealer, then responded 1NT to partner's 1H at unfavorable with S-742 H-10 D-Q7542 C-A1042. Partner raised to 2NT. Breaks were very unfriendly, misguessed the play, and went down 400. Klaymen passed 1H, for +80. Right or wrong, I would always bid 1NT, and would almost never go for 400.

OTOH I was somewhat lucky to win 12 imps when leading clubs (the unbid suit) against 4H with J1074. I led the J; he led the 4. J is the book lead from the holding, and I think it's better, but he was unlucky that it made the difference between making and down 1 here.

Provisionally +4.4 after 4 tables in the 5-way. I don't know how. I gave away a game on a play that you would think a bot must have made it was so bad. And I'm provisional +.7 on that board. OTOH, bot declarer could have always made 3NT as the cards lie, by playing differently before the point where I screwed up, so maybe that's what happened at your tables, maybe after a different lead.

I would feel guilty saying a bot could defend as badly as I did then, except that CHO did on another board (where currently I'm at 0 imps, so probably the same awful defense occurred at every table.)

Complete brain fart on another board, very lucky to be only -2.0 on it. The play to trick 1 so surprised me that I promptly forgot it happened.
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  #162  
Old 10-18-2019, 10:19 PM
Steve White Steve White is offline
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New 2-way challenges tomorrow, and a new 5-way when the current one is over.
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  #163  
Old 10-19-2019, 11:08 AM
Steve White Steve White is offline
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5-way complete. Romp by procrastinator, +21.25, the only one positive. My provisional +4.4 dropped to -1.25, still good enough for second.

New 5-way issued.

As to my comments on provisional boards, I misremembered board numbers. The one where CHO's defense was awful was board 2, not the board 7 I suspected. So I was probably negative in the provisional results, and ended up at -2.75. And CHO did not repeat his defense at any other tables. Only BTDT and I defended 1NT, and his defense, which succeeded, did not present the bot with the same situation. I intentionally say situation instead of problem, since it shouldn't have been a problem, though in fairness to bots they do not necessarily expect partners to play like competent humans play. (BTDT's defense was certainly competent, and succeeded, but mine was too and should have succeeded.)

CHO has 983 2 KJ10 KQ7543. Auction, unfavorable, has been P (by me) - 1C - P - P - Dbl - 1NT - all pass. He decided to lead the stiff heart 2. Not my choice, but not fatal. His partner plays the 6 as this dummy appears J6 J754 976543 10. Declarer wins and returns a heart to dummy's J, partner winning the ace. Partner shifts to the club 2, to declarer's 9 and CHO's Q. CHO decides that since he led a stiff 2 on opening lead, maybe I shifted to a stiff 2, and continues the diamond J into declarer's AQ. I could still have beaten it, had I figured out what was going on, but I didn't. In slight defense of CHO, if I had the 3 diamonds my balancing double suggested, the diamond shift would not cost a trick in the suit.

The other three of you had decided to open 1C on K1052 A986 82 A62. Reasonable, but pass is also reasonable.

Other board where I thought my defense was awful turned out declarer was always cold for his 3NT contract. My timing gave him a winner he couldn't have gotten for himself, but he had 9 all the time anyway. Procrastinator beat the contract (board 5) by overcalling on a 4-card suit, changing the 3NT contract to LHO instead of RHO, and LHO misplayed it badly. (LHO could not have guaranteed 9 tricks on another line, but his line was clearly inferior.) Actually if LHO trusts procrastinator's card at trick 1, which in fact was a true card, he could have guaranteed 9 tricks on the other line that is best even if not guaranteed. Whether procrastinator would false card against a bot, I don't know.

Reminder: if you are curious about who did what on any hand or where everyone finished, you can see it all in your history file under Recent tournaments. The screen that first comes up when you choose that Group Challenge shows your rank and your result on each hand. That screen has a Results tab, which tells you everyone's net imps and final rank. If you click on anyone's net imps on that screen, you see their net imps on each board, and can click on the traveler then select their movie to see exactly how the bidding and play went.

From the traveler, you also see all results on the board, but you don't know which result went with which player, except that you know which belongs to the person whose net imps tab you opened. (So on hands where I'm saying what anyone did except me, that means I found it by clicking on their net imps and then on their movie, something I certainly don't do for every hand.)
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  #164  
Old 10-19-2019, 04:42 PM
Steve White Steve White is offline
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"God protects idiots" (a line from The Good, The Bad and The Ugly) or I would have been destroyed in the 2-way against Klaymen. One absolutely terrible play, but it didn't cost as the cards lay. One misclick, which I don't think cost. Went down in that contract which maybe I could have made on a different line, but I think it would have been down even if I had clicked on the card I intended. (Anyway, that would have been a "God protects klutzes" not "God protects idiots" since my intended line was not idiotic, even if the successful line would have been better.)

He doesn't protect idiots completely, though, as he let CHO bury me for a bid that was not well judged. Maybe it wasn't so bad as to be idiotic, or maybe it was. I did resist another bid that tempted me, which would not have worked, and where calling it only "not well judged" would be charitable.
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  #165  
Old 10-19-2019, 08:45 PM
Steve White Steve White is offline
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Unheard of. +45 vs procrastinator in a match I thought was likely pretty flat. Few if any definite errors by either of us. For example: one hand my auction to 4S got a heart lead, and unless I did something stupid I was making. Bots even made it simpler later, but I was making no matter what they did later. His auction to 4S got a trump lead, leaving him no way to make.
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  #166  
Old 10-19-2019, 10:03 PM
Steve White Steve White is offline
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"God protects idiots" (a line from The Good, The Bad and The Ugly) or I would have been destroyed in the 2-way against Klaymen. One absolutely terrible play, but it didn't cost as the cards lay.
+2 vs Klaymen. Interesting that I referred to the first hand as "God protects idiots", since I took a finesse that was going to lose the contract if the lead was singleton, whereas declining the finesse makes the contract unless spades were 3-0. The finesse lost, , so I was delighted to find that trumps were 3-0, so the finesse did not cost.

Then Klaymen played the hand exactly the same way, and in retrospect it is the right way after all. If the lead is not a singleton, it does not hurt to finesse, and makes the contract if the finesse works. (This was not trick 1, and from the play and carding it is very unlikely the finesse would work. But from bidding and play, if the lead is a singleton (as is fairly likely but not certain), then the leader is virtually certain to have the 3 missing trumps, and we are down 1 whatever we do.) There is some chance the finesse will work, so take it as your only overall chance.
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He doesn't protect idiots completely, though, as he let CHO bury me for a bid that was not well judged.
Yes, as expected Klaymen avoided the rather stupid overcall, and won 7 imps on the board.

So how did I win? Pretty much random. Partner had made an unusual 2NT overcall [after 1S by my RHO - P - 1NT - 2NT - P], and with D-Qxx and clubs xxx, Klaymen bid 3D and I bid 3C. Over 3C, they reach 3S, making 4. (4 is not a good contract, but is unbeatable). Over 3D, you get doubled and go for 500 against a 4-1 diamond break.) Rather bizarrely, my RHO has a 6-5-1-1 pattern, and doubled both 3C and 3D rather than bidding 3H, but LHO had the diamonds but not the clubs to play for penalties. He has 4 of each, but only 98xx in clubs.

New 2-way challenges tomorrow.

Last edited by Steve White; 10-19-2019 at 10:06 PM..
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  #167  
Old 10-20-2019, 12:09 AM
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procrastinator procrastinator is offline
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Unheard of. +45 vs procrastinator in a match I thought was likely pretty flat. Few if any definite errors by either of us. For example: one hand my auction to 4S got a heart lead, and unless I did something stupid I was making. Bots even made it simpler later, but I was making no matter what they did later. His auction to 4S got a trump lead, leaving him no way to make.
Ouch, 45. You definitely played board 14 better than I did, I ducked trick 1, which was just bad.

The board you mentioned was tough. First the bots led spades, then i thought I was going to be able to do a loser on loser endplay, but the bot made a nice unblock.
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  #168  
Old 10-20-2019, 10:45 AM
Steve White Steve White is offline
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Provisional +1.1 after in the 3 way after 4 players.. Only two results over 3.0 in absolute value, both probably the result of my making unpopular calls in the auction. Both calls certainly reasonable, even if not best.
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  #169  
Old 10-20-2019, 11:32 AM
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Played the 2-way against Steve this morning. Played early in the morning while the rest of my family was still asleep. Thought I would play well: quiet and well rested. Instead I just completely lose a card and go down in a game I had been pushy to bid and the bot had given to me. Sigh. I have miscounted plenty of times, but just losing track of an honor is a level mistake that really frustrates me.
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  #170  
Old 10-20-2019, 02:24 PM
Steve White Steve White is offline
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Instead I just completely lose a card and go down in a game I had been pushy to bid and the bot had given to me. Sigh. I have miscounted plenty of times, but just losing track of an honor is a level mistake that really frustrates me.
Yes, that was the difference in a 7-1 match with 13 exact pushes. Also one 0-imp swing where you were in the much safer contract. (And where perhaps I risked a ridiculous result; system notes weren't clear that a bid I made was forcing when wouldn't have considered it if I knew it was not forcing. Still don't know for sure if it was, but it didn't get passed out.)
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