Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Cyberchat > Non-Actuarial Topics
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions


Fill in a brief DW Simpson Registration Form
to be contacted when new jobs meet your criteria.


Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #4211  
Old 03-27-2020, 10:53 AM
Westley Westley is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Posts: 30,688
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fdsafdsa View Post
18 when we get a vaccine.
Any reason to be confident that it will happen within that time? Not sure if there's any specific way to estimate this.
Reply With Quote
  #4212  
Old 03-27-2020, 10:55 AM
Lucy's Avatar
Lucy Lucy is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 7,592
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Westley View Post
Any reason to be confident that it will happen within that time? Not sure if there's any specific way to estimate this.
I'm not confident we'll get a good vaccine, but 15-18 months is a realistic fast-track estimate of how long to get one if it's straightforward to develop.
Reply With Quote
  #4213  
Old 03-27-2020, 10:58 AM
Vorian Atreides's Avatar
Vorian Atreides Vorian Atreides is offline
Wiki/Note Contributor
CAS
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: As far as 3 cups of sugar will take you
Studying for CSPA
College: Hard Knocks
Favorite beer: Most German dark lagers
Posts: 68,477
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CSPAN View Post
At the risk of being "political" . . .

Given how strict Chinese censorship is with their social media, and the high degree of their ability to analyze *everything* on their cyberspace, I would highly question the motivation behind these "leaked" pics from Chinese social media.
__________________
I find your lack of faith disturbing

Why should I worry about dying? Its not going to happen in my lifetime!


Freedom of speech is not a license to discourtesy

#BLACKMATTERLIVES
Reply With Quote
  #4214  
Old 03-27-2020, 11:02 AM
Brock's Avatar
Brock Brock is offline
Defending the AO since 2007
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: The Venture Compound
Studying for GHDP-A
College: Hard Knox U.
Posts: 13,416
Default

China’s Mobile Carriers Lose 21 Million Users as Virus Bites

Quote:
China’s wireless carriers are reporting drops in users as the coronavirus crisis cuts business activity, with China Mobile Ltd., the world’s largest carrier, reporting its first net decline since starting to report monthly data in 2000.

China Mobile subscriptions fell by more than 8 million over January and February, data on the company’s website show. China Unicom Hong Kong Ltd. subscribers fell by 7.8 million in the period, while China Telecom Corp. has said it lost 5.6 million users last month.

The rare industrywide slump in subscribers shows the pandemic crisis that first emerged in China late last year is crimping growth even at businesses that provide essential services and earn monthly revenue.

Part of the drop could be caused by migrant workers -- who often have one subscription for where they work and another for their home region -- canceling their work-region account after the virus prevented them from returning to work after the Lunar New Year holidays that began in late January, said Chris Lane, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

China Mobile shares fell 2.7% in Hong Kong trading Monday, compared with a 4.9% slump for the benchmark Hang Seng Index. China Telecom slid 6.3%, while China Unicom declined 6.4%.

While the drop in users is unusual, the total is small relative to total wireless subscriptions which have risen to a combined 1.6 billion for the three carriers.

China Mobile Says Coronavirus Affecting 5G Network Expansion

Things may improve starting this month as work in factories and other businesses in China resumes, Lane said.

Net income fell 9.5% last year at China Mobile, partly on government mandates to cut prices and improve service. The company, which reported earnings last week, told analysts revenue would remain stable this year, a sign management was not worried about the fall in subscribers, Lane said.
There is a testable hypothesis. If the subscribers come back as business gets back to normal, then the loss of subscribers was due to quarantine. If the subscribers don't return, then we might be closer to the magnitude of Chinese cases and deaths.
__________________
|||||||||||||()Ξ████████████████████████████████)
Thanks, Tom's Alt & mod1!
Spoiler:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Statatak View Post
I'm not the sharpest tool on the AO, but I'm comforted by the idea that no matter how vapid and incoherent my arguments are that there may be a kernel of truth buried somewhere.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2pac Shakur View Post
i am broken and incapable of thought and a bunch of other stuff

Last edited by Brock; 03-27-2020 at 11:17 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #4215  
Old 03-27-2020, 11:03 AM
BlackPhillip BlackPhillip is offline
Member
Non-Actuary
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 1,758
Default

Here's an article I read back in the day that gives some background of infectious diseases. Interesting reread now.

Assessing the Epidemic Potential of RNA and DNA Viruses
Emerging Infectious Diseases - December 2016
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/22/12/16-0123_article

Spoiler - excerpts from abstract:
Quote:
A series of recent emerging infectious disease outbreaks, including the 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa and the continuing Zika virus disease epidemic in the Americas, have underlined the need for better understanding of which kinds of pathogens are most likely to emerge and cause disease in human populations. Many, although not all, emerging infectious diseases are caused by viruses, and these frequently emerge from nonhuman host reservoirs (1–3). The enormous diversity (4) and high rates of evolution (5) of viral pathogens discourage attempts to predict with any precision which ones are most likely to emerge in humans. However, there is some consensus, at least in general terms, regarding the kinds of traits that are most essential in determining the capacity of a virus to infect, cause disease, and spread within human populations (Table 1). We focus on one of these traits, the capacity of a virus to spread from one human to another (by any transmission route other than deliberate laboratory exposure), a key determinant of the epidemic potential of a virus.
Pathogen pyramid for RNA and DNA viruses. link to figure 1
- Level 1 indicates viruses to which humans are exposed but which do not infect humans.
- Level 2 indicates viruses that can infect humans but are not transmitted from humans.
- Level 3 indicates viruses that can infect and be transmitted from humans but are restricted to self-limiting outbreaks.
- Level 4 indicates viruses that are capable of epidemic spread in human populations.

Quote:
Even when a virus is capable of transmission between humans, the critical threshold R0>1 is not always achieved. However, because changes in virus traits or host population characteristics can influence R0, level 3 viruses (Table 2) are of special interest from a public health perspective, and of special concern when, like MERS-CoV, they also cause severe illness. Demonstrating human transmissibility is often difficult, but essential. The best evidence is likely to come from virus genome sequencing studies. These studies should be a public health priority (40).

We currently have few clues to help us predict which mammalian or avian viruses might pose a threat to humans and, especially, which might be transmissible between humans. One argument in favor of experimental studies of these traits, including controversial gain of function experiments (30), is that they could help guide molecular surveillance for high-risk virus lineages in nonhuman reservoirs.

The first line of defense against emerging viruses is effective surveillance (40). A better understanding of which kinds of viruses in which circumstances pose the greatest risk to human health would enable evidence-based targeting of surveillance efforts, which would reduce costs and increase probable effectiveness of this endeavor.
They need to update Table 2 for the coronovirus promotion. Table 2 = Viruses (n = 37) that are known or suspected of being transmissible (directly or indirectly) between humans but to date have been restricted to short transmission chains or self-limiting outbreaks

Last edited by BlackPhillip; 03-27-2020 at 11:37 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #4216  
Old 03-27-2020, 11:05 AM
Old Timer's Avatar
Old Timer Old Timer is offline
Member
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: The Great East
Posts: 2,156
Default

Boris Johnson has symptoms. Self isolating at 11 Downing Street.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52060791...5Bpost+type%5D
__________________
Life is chaos personified.
Reply With Quote
  #4217  
Old 03-27-2020, 11:08 AM
swimmer92's Avatar
swimmer92 swimmer92 is offline
Member
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 28,932
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShivamS View Post
1 million tests a week by next week. In perspective, South Korea (the country considered to manage this the best) does 20,000 a day.
1 million tests a week by next week is indeed a good sign, but the perspective you mention here is a bad one. We need *per capita* comparisons. In that case, were lagging significantly behind South Korea:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/polit...eck/index.html

Quote:
Based on the available data and the population of each country, 1 in 142 South Koreans and 1 in every 786 Americans have been tested for the coronavirus.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Helena Lake View Post
Straight people toss salads too.
Reply With Quote
  #4218  
Old 03-27-2020, 11:19 AM
yoyo's Avatar
yoyo yoyo is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 24,870
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fdsafdsa View Post
The objective of social distancing is to "flatten the curve", you get roughly the same number of infections, but with a flatter curve the healthcare system can handle them all.

So the same lungs will get damaged whether we go through this or not.

Unless we maintain social distancing for the 12 - 18 months it will take to get a vaccine.
i wonder about the validity of same area under the curve with and without good compliance of SD
Reply With Quote
  #4219  
Old 03-27-2020, 11:30 AM
whisper's Avatar
whisper whisper is offline
Member
CAS AAA
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Chicago
Favorite beer: Hefewizen
Posts: 39,543
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fdsafdsa View Post
The objective of social distancing is to "flatten the curve", you get roughly the same number of infections, but with a flatter curve the healthcare system can handle them all.

So the same lungs will get damaged whether we go through this or not.

Unless we maintain social distancing for the 12 - 18 months it will take to get a vaccine.

That isn't the only option.

A widespread and consistent testing regime with isolating those who test positive and those they've come into contact with would be less disruptive. We're not at the stage where we can engage in this strategy.
Reply With Quote
  #4220  
Old 03-27-2020, 11:37 AM
Lusus Naturae's Avatar
Lusus Naturae Lusus Naturae is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Favorite beer: Yes, Please
Posts: 1,800
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShivamS View Post
[*]1 million tests a week by next week. In perspective, South Korea (the country considered to manage this the best) does 20,000 a day.
Hasn't 1 million tests a week by next week been the plan for 3-4 weeks now?

What makes us think this time it'll happen?
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:39 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.59850 seconds with 10 queries