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  #31  
Old 07-09-2014, 12:55 PM
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We amateur investors have one killer advantage over the highly incentivized professionals: time. The pros have to prove the value of their services to investors every quarter so the money doesn't leave. So short-term they'll be faster and smarter than us chasing marginal returns. But I can outwait the pros and buy when things are cheap. I'll give up a few basis points today for a much bigger possible payout sometime in the future.
Your real time advantage can be summed up in two words: BUY and HOLD.

If you try to move money around to take exploit this "killer advantage" you think you have over the pros, any extra returns you make will be more than swallowed up by fees.
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Old 07-09-2014, 01:21 PM
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I had been looking at my current asset allocation on a pre-tax basis and it looked overwieght in stocks, I've re-assessed on a rough post-tax basis and it's at my target on that basis, so, I'll probably hold.

Holding a fairly constant % allocation is a good way to be a bit contrarian, when the markets are up you sell a bit (or stop buying more), when down you buy a bit (or buy more).
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  #33  
Old 07-09-2014, 01:47 PM
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Your real time advantage can be summed up in two words: BUY and HOLD.

If you try to move money around to take exploit this "killer advantage" you think you have over the pros, any extra returns you make will be more than swallowed up by fees.
I don't pay transaction fees on index funds.
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  #34  
Old 07-09-2014, 02:00 PM
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And you think the prices of entire indexes indices are exploitably wrong because of pros having outsized incentives for short-term gains?
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Old 07-09-2014, 02:14 PM
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And you think the prices of entire indexes indices are exploitably wrong because of pros having outsized incentives for short-term gains?
I think people have an enormous herd mentality, and sometimes it's wise not to follow the herd.

When the price of oranges goes up, people buy fewer oranges. When the price of a stock goes up, people clamour to buy more stocks.
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Old 07-09-2014, 02:27 PM
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Good luck with that. I'm sure you're way of investing is more fun than mine.
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Old 07-10-2014, 05:16 AM
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And you think the prices of entire indexes indices are exploitably wrong because of pros having outsized incentives for short-term gains?
So apparently there are no identifiable bubbles or panics and markets are perfectly efficient. Interesting. Did you really not see the last two crashes coming?
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Old 07-10-2014, 07:56 AM
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http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/don-...fall-1.2701492

Still waiting for crazy markets to fall.
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  #39  
Old 07-10-2014, 10:02 AM
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Dow fell 1% today. My ETFs still gained, particularly the sector ones. Odd lol
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Old 07-10-2014, 10:11 AM
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So apparently there are no identifiable bubbles or panics and markets are perfectly efficient. Interesting. Did you really not see the last two crashes coming?
I saw them coming, but I did not know when they would come.No one I knew would have predicted that March 2009 would have been the bottom either.

Most people I know would have said 2006 or 2007 as the time to get out. None of them said April 2009 was the time to get back in though.

Last edited by Le Bernardin; 07-10-2014 at 10:16 AM..
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