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  #411  
Old 10-16-2019, 12:51 AM
Westley Westley is offline
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Nats to World Series. Did anybody watch tonight? I bet you'd be surprised to find out this fact: That team was 12 games under .500 at one point.
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  #412  
Old 10-16-2019, 01:03 AM
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Nats to World Series. Did anybody watch tonight? I bet you'd be surprised to find out this fact: That team was 12 games under .500 at one point.
I watched a bit of it but got distracted by your Democrats’ debate.

Since the Washington Nationals/Montreal Expos have never won a WS, and I have fond memories of going to Expos games in Jarry Park in their early years, I will be routing for the Nationals.
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  #413  
Old 10-16-2019, 11:27 AM
Funemployed Funemployed is offline
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Now just need the Stros to finish of the Yanks, and then probably sweep the Xpos.

The sooner this garbage is over with the better off we'll all be.
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  #414  
Old 10-16-2019, 11:58 AM
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This team will be incredibly difficult to beat, let's just wait until how it plays out in NLCS and WS.
Well, uh, they did have that one inning last night.
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  #415  
Old 10-16-2019, 01:18 PM
Dr T Non-Fan Dr T Non-Fan is offline
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Nats to World Series. Did anybody watch tonight? I bet you'd be surprised to find out this fact: That team was 12 games under .500 at one point.
Sorry. Season's over for me.

What changed at 12 games under? Trades? Front-loaded schedule? Injured players return? Did they trade the guy who was dancing on a table in the clubhouse after a loss?
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  #416  
Old 10-16-2019, 01:35 PM
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Sorry. Season's over for me.

What changed at 12 games under? Trades? Front-loaded schedule? Injured players return? Did they trade the guy who was dancing on a table in the clubhouse after a loss?
Mostly they started hitting better and runs went up. Also the bullpen went from OMFG these guys suck so hard, to these guys are pretty bad but whatever.
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  #417  
Old 10-20-2019, 03:35 AM
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  #418  
Old 10-21-2019, 11:42 AM
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Yeah, there is day to day fluctuation (and trend throughout the year in 2018) but it doesn't fluctuate to the extent that we've seen thus far in the postseason.

All of the "well better pitching might make fewer homeruns" arguments are certainly appeals to small sample size. But there are observed (but not lab verified) changes to the aerodynamics of the ball based on fastballs, for which there is a greater sample size. That would of course cause fewer home runs. And sure enough, isolating fly balls that were marginal home runs based on batted ball quality (and adjusting for weather), the outcomes have much more closely matched what would be expected with a higher drag ball (as compared to 2019 regular season).
Is there a way to control the 2019 regular season data to show only the teams that are now in the playoffs (to control for pitching and park), or am I missing the point that those aren't relevant factors and it can all be explained by the ball?
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  #419  
Old 10-21-2019, 11:43 AM
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Originally Posted by yankeetripper View Post
Mostly they started hitting better and runs went up. Also the bullpen went from OMFG these guys suck so hard, to these guys are pretty bad but whatever.
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  #420  
Old 10-21-2019, 12:00 PM
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Is there a way to control the 2019 regular season data to show only the teams that are now in the playoffs (to control for pitching and park), or am I missing the point that those aren't relevant factors and it can all be explained by the ball?
A few things, most of this is buried in Rob Arthur's tweet threads from the past week or so.

Arthur did say that he ran the same analysis using only Houston and Tampa since things would be climate controlled (part of the time in Houston) and saw similar or even greater impacts in those parks (though smaller sample sizes obviously).

He's measuring drag from when the ball leaves the hand to when it crosses the plate (speed difference). Hasn't found any evidence that pitcher skill would impact that. His calcs also adjust for weather measurements (temp, wind, etc.) which he has said aren't all that impactful anyway.

There is no history of the same thing happening in prior postseasons (at least those that can be measured using the same data).

Seems as though neither are relevant, but I'm just going off the analysis he's run and the variables he's tested.
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