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  #51  
Old 02-20-2019, 02:19 PM
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Trout wRC+ 176
Harper wRC+ 140
Machado wRC+ 120

I agree it is Macahdo's glove that brings his value closer to Harper. Trout is head and shoulders above both.
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  #52  
Old 02-20-2019, 02:24 PM
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Originally Posted by nonactuarialactuary View Post
I think Id rather have Manny than Bryce, to be honest.
I think their overall value is quite similar but which one is a better fit for teams depends on need.

If I'm a team like the Giants I absolutely want Harper over Machado because attracting hitters to that park is not easy.

If I'm a team like the Yankees I absolutely want Machado over Harper because I have a clear need to upgrade 3B defense.

If I'm a team like Philly I don't have a preference because I'm "close" and either one can be plugged in and probably make me the favorite to win my division.
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  #53  
Old 02-20-2019, 02:27 PM
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I read that he had a shitty glove year last year with BAL, but recovered when traded to LAD.
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  #54  
Old 02-20-2019, 02:38 PM
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I read that he had a shitty glove year last year with BAL, but recovered when traded to LAD.
He's a better 3B than he is SS. Probably because his average to slightly above average range as SS translates to excellent range as 3B
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Old 02-20-2019, 02:56 PM
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Comparing stats between MM and BH really varies depending on the site. For example, check WAR on Fangraphs and compare it to Baseball Reference. Totally different. BR has Machado being far ahead of Harper in WAR. Fangraphs has them much closer.
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Old 02-20-2019, 03:11 PM
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Those guys need to get together and reconcile this.
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  #57  
Old 02-20-2019, 03:45 PM
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Comparing stats between MM and BH really varies depending on the site. For example, check WAR on Fangraphs and compare it to Baseball Reference. Totally different. BR has Machado being far ahead of Harper in WAR. Fangraphs has them much closer.
BR uses DRS for defensive value and Fangraphs uses UZR. While both measures agree that Harper's defense was bad last year, his 2018 DRS is an extreme outlier compared both to prior years and other stats in the same year, and is probably resulting in Harper's value being understated.
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Old 02-20-2019, 04:11 PM
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I tend to disregard or mentally adjust BR WARs that are heavily driven by DRS/rField unless they are backed up by other stats being similarly good/bad and/or multiple years of the same. DRS returns some crazy high/low numbers from time to time. Even with Fangraphs WAR, if it's heavily influenced by defensive value and UZR is out of the ordinary for a player's career, there should be some adjustment because those defensive stats can bounce around a lot and don't really settle down in a season's worth of chances.

Both DRS and UZR have Harper as about average over his career, and that's with 2018 weighing him down. Each one has one other year of negative value (DRS in 2016 and UZR in 2015) but other than that, generally slightly positive overall. So unless you truly believe that Harper all of a sudden went from a slightly above average RFer in his career to one of the absolute worst in baseball and that it will continue, take that 2018 value with a grain of salt.

There's some defensive regression expected after 30 that you have to factor in, but he probably should be valued as an average to slightly below average defender over the deal, with a -0.5 WAR positional value in RF (though he can slide over to LF eventually). That's more like a 5 WAR player going forward, with the same 10 WAR upside. Not the 1.5 WAR or whatever that BR had him at in 2018. Indeed, all of the projections on Fangraphs have him at about a 5 WAR player this year.
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Old 02-26-2019, 04:45 PM
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Kershaw is already hurt, and the season hasn't started yet. I don't think he's even pitched in a Spring Training game.
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Old 02-26-2019, 04:46 PM
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Kershaw is already hurt, and the season hasn't started yet. I don't think he's even pitched in a Spring Training game.
He's shutdown throwing twice already. Not the best sign for Dodger fans.
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