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#205




Page 11 of Brosius, I'm looking at the linear approximation formula and the 1.2.3 listed for Hugh White's questions. If Cov(X,Y) < Var(X), isn't L(x) still bigger than E[Y]? How is this a decrease in the reserve? Isn't this true for all conditions?
Like, let's say x = 5 and E(X) = 4, then under all conditions E[YX] = (something bigger than 0 ) + E[Y]
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Last edited by AbedNadir; 12112019 at 11:36 AM.. 
#207




Mack 1994 is bothering me.
on pg.112, Mack states The fact that the chain ladder estimator uses weights which are proportional to ��jk therefore means that ��jk is assumed to be inversely proportional to ������(Cj,k+1/CjkCj1,...,Cjk) I don't get how he came up with this conclusion. Why does the weight in the CL estimator imply Cjk is inversely proportional to the variance of the future development factor? 
#208




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So if you use a formula with a certain set of weights, you are implicitly making a statement about what you believe the variance relationship is (because if you believed it was something else, you are stupid for not using the MVUE for what you thought it was). 
#209




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Assume Cov(X,Y)/Var(X)=0.9, E[Y]=10 Expected reserve = E[Y]  E[X] = 10  4 = 6 Estimated Ultimate L(x) = (54)*0.9+10 =10.9 Reserve: L(x)  x = 10.95=5.9 < 6, hence the decrease 
#210




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