Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Cyberchat > Non-Actuarial Topics
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions


Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #3141  
Old 03-16-2020, 10:24 PM
campbell's Avatar
campbell campbell is offline
Mary Pat Campbell
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: NY
Studying for duolingo and coursera
Favorite beer: Murphy's Irish Stout
Posts: 93,724
Blog Entries: 6
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 3rookie View Post
I refuse to watch a sport that isn't progressive enough to include females. Where's your Title IX, Japan? I'm sure I speak for all men when I say that our top priority is to be able to gamble on sports with scantily clad women while we are quarantined.
I like big butts, and I cannot lie.
__________________
It's STUMP - meep on public finance, pensions, mortality, and more

LinkedIn Profile
Reply With Quote
  #3142  
Old 03-16-2020, 10:27 PM
campbell's Avatar
campbell campbell is offline
Mary Pat Campbell
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: NY
Studying for duolingo and coursera
Favorite beer: Murphy's Irish Stout
Posts: 93,724
Blog Entries: 6
Default

someone mentioned suicide rates earlier

https://twitter.com/literalbanana/st...23623843106817

Quote:
Spotted Toad
@toad_spotted

Has anyone done reasonable estimates of increased mortality from the lockdowns themselves: behavioral (addictions/suicide), reduced exercise, attenuated immune function if people aren’t getting outside and getting some sun?



Clockwork Whale
@clockworkwhale

2h
iirc suicides actually go down during wartime, been wondering if something like this would reduce them via a similar psychological effect

Extremely-Normal-One-Having Banana
@literalbanana
Replying to
@clockworkwhale
and
@toad_spotted
down in wartime but up in times of economic crisis - hard to say but I’d bet on fewer suicides over the next few months at least (year-on-year as april-may are the highest suicide months in US at least)
__________________
It's STUMP - meep on public finance, pensions, mortality, and more

LinkedIn Profile
Reply With Quote
  #3143  
Old 03-17-2020, 12:09 AM
BayesDeep's Avatar
BayesDeep BayesDeep is offline
Member
CAS SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 78
Default

I guess UK is ditching their strategy

Reply With Quote
  #3144  
Old 03-17-2020, 12:20 AM
Loner's Avatar
Loner Loner is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: The Third Half
Posts: 46,614
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock View Post
I can think of a certain cam business that is probably seeing a huge surge in business.
My OnlyFans revenue is skyrocketing.
__________________
2012 AO Rap Battle Champion
Co-Legend of the Water Cooler(TM)
Reply With Quote
  #3145  
Old 03-17-2020, 01:46 AM
Brock's Avatar
Brock Brock is offline
Defending the AO since 2007
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: The Venture Compound
Studying for GHDP-A
College: Hard Knox U.
Posts: 13,443
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loner View Post
My OnlyFans revenue is skyrocketing.


And, you save on airfare to Vegas. Win-win.
__________________
|||||||||||||()Ξ████████████████████████████████)
Thanks, Tom's Alt & mod1!
Spoiler:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Statatak View Post
I'm not the sharpest tool on the AO, but I'm comforted by the idea that no matter how vapid and incoherent my arguments are that there may be a kernel of truth buried somewhere.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2pac Shakur View Post
i am broken and incapable of thought and a bunch of other stuff
Reply With Quote
  #3146  
Old 03-17-2020, 08:10 AM
dgtatum's Avatar
dgtatum dgtatum is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Louisville, KY
Favorite beer: San Pelligreno
Posts: 4,806
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShivamS View Post
I guess I never realized that so many businesses were running this close to failure. Not that I'm an expert or anything, but I took it for granted that there was more leeway here.
The economy is set up for all capital to be debt financed and the revenue to cover cost of good sold, overhead, operating costs, and capital debt service. When revenue stops overhead and debt servicing can quickly swamp a companies cash reserves. Look at many S&P 500 companies. They operate the same way.

A restaurant is a great example. You have a leased space with leased equipment and a debt for the buildout. If they have to close you can layoff all your employees and stop ordering food and supplies, but the leases are still due and the owners family still has to be supported. That can exhaust a cash reserve in a month pretty easily. This will really set back small and local businesses and favor the large corporations heavily. They can more easily access lines of credit to get them through this.

Look at Amazon. This is a crisis ready made for them. 1/2 of the last vestiges of their competition will be struggling mightily or out of business in a year while their sales increase rapidly because their service matches this crisis even better than it matches normal day to day life..
__________________
It's times like these you learn to live again
It's times like these you give and give again
It's times like these you learn to love again
It's times like these time and time again

Last edited by dgtatum; 03-17-2020 at 08:17 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #3147  
Old 03-17-2020, 08:32 AM
ShivamS's Avatar
ShivamS ShivamS is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
College: Yep
Favorite beer: Sweetwater Blue
Posts: 3,953
Default

South Korea sees fewer than 100 new cases for the third day in a row. Their peak was around 900 a few weeks ago.

However, it looks like there is a new cluster in Seoul, so this could skyrocket again in my opinion. If it does, there may be a lesson for the rest of the world - but I don't know what that lesson is because they seem to be doing everything right.

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regi...or-a-third-day
__________________
Spoiler:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Agadefe View Post

Physical violence as acceptable reaction or outdated masculine bravado as a positive quality is definitely not something the country should be moving towards or qualities we want to see in a President.



Reply With Quote
  #3148  
Old 03-17-2020, 08:46 AM
CSPAN CSPAN is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 697
Default

The lesson, unfortunately, is that only draconian centralized quarantine measures have proven successful in stopping the spread of this virus. One super spreader will ruin lesser measures in short order. China is presumably one of the few countries, maybe the only, that could successfully implement such a system. They did so when the epidemic was mostly confined to a single province. Now, they are quarantining everyone arriving in China.
Reply With Quote
  #3149  
Old 03-17-2020, 09:21 AM
NormalDan's Avatar
NormalDan NormalDan is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: NJ
Posts: 10,882
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CSPAN View Post
The lesson, unfortunately, is that only draconian centralized quarantine measures have proven successful in stopping the spread of this virus. One super spreader will ruin lesser measures in short order. China is presumably one of the few countries, maybe the only, that could successfully implement such a system. They did so when the epidemic was mostly confined to a single province. Now, they are quarantining everyone arriving in China.
Maybe Boris had it right all along
Reply With Quote
  #3150  
Old 03-17-2020, 09:26 AM
CSPAN CSPAN is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 697
Default

NYC is about to pop off in short order. No wonder Cuomo looks so nervous. DeBlasio just looks stoned, as usual.

ILI surveillance is showing a spike in the last week, particularly for 18-64 ages. General respiratory illness is off the charts for 18-64 ages. Hopefully part of that is just fear, people showing up with mild symptoms but are worried it's COVID.

https://weinbergerlab.shinyapps.io/NYC_syndromic/
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:32 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.50920 seconds with 12 queries