Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Exams - Please Limit Discussion to Exam-Related Topics > SoA/CAS Preliminary Exams > Exam 4/C - Construction and Evaluation of Actuarial Models
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions


Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #231  
Old 01-17-2018, 07:39 AM
dkamka's Avatar
dkamka dkamka is offline
Member
CAS SOA
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Austin, Texas
Studying for Predictive Analytics& FAP
College: Roosevelt University Alumnus '10
Favorite beer: Jawa Juice
Posts: 449
Default

On Mahler 7, I did get that wrong, but only because I forgot to multiply by the (1+r)^5 which I factored out per TIA recommendation. It was easy chug and plug if you discount the expected value by (1+r)^5, then you don't need to worry about scaling factors at all. Mahler actually noted, "if you forgot to multiply back through by..." as he explained the alternate sol'n, my way HAHA
__________________
PM me if you’re in the Austin area
Introductory I: Economics | Accounting & FinanceFM | P
Introductory II: IFM | Mathematical Statistics
Actuarial: LTAM | STAM | SRM
Advanced: (e-Learning)FAP, (Project)Predictive Analytics
Seminar: APC
Reply With Quote
  #232  
Old 01-17-2018, 07:51 AM
Outsanity Outsanity is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
College: 1st year
Posts: 317
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dkamka View Post
On Mahler 7, I did get that wrong, but only because I forgot to multiply by the (1+r)^5 which I factored out per TIA recommendation. It was easy chug and plug if you discount the expected value by (1+r)^5, then you don't need to worry about scaling factors at all. Mahler actually noted, "if you forgot to multiply back through by..." as he explained the alternate sol'n, my way HAHA
I had it set up correctly, but I went "NOPE. AIN'T GOT TIME FOR THIS." when I saw the E(X^d) formula. xD

Oh man. These Mahlers. 140 questions down, 375 more to go. I'm always behind my schedule, ugh. Was hoping to be halfway done by now.
Reply With Quote
  #233  
Old 01-17-2018, 04:23 PM
dkamka's Avatar
dkamka dkamka is offline
Member
CAS SOA
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Austin, Texas
Studying for Predictive Analytics& FAP
College: Roosevelt University Alumnus '10
Favorite beer: Jawa Juice
Posts: 449
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Outsanity View Post
Pretty sure it's a universal truth that reviewing = do better.

12/20 on Mahler 6
13/20 on Mahler 7. I flat out skipped the Inverse Gaussian E(X^d) questions, though. I knew how to do them but that E(X^d) formula is a piece of work xD
yeah that's one that makes me cringe when I look at it. z and y are such simple ratios, so just organizing those values and being organized is crucial to get through it. I expect one or possibly two at most of those ugly distributions, but given they're so uncommon, the question may actually be not too bad with a little luck
__________________
PM me if you’re in the Austin area
Introductory I: Economics | Accounting & FinanceFM | P
Introductory II: IFM | Mathematical Statistics
Actuarial: LTAM | STAM | SRM
Advanced: (e-Learning)FAP, (Project)Predictive Analytics
Seminar: APC
Reply With Quote
  #234  
Old 01-18-2018, 09:12 AM
Outsanity Outsanity is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
College: 1st year
Posts: 317
Default

Okay, checking in with
Mahler #8 - 15/20
Mahler #9 - 12/20

Is it just me or does Mahler #9 feature the oddest distribution of questions, with some too-simple-to-be-Mahler kernels/Bayesian/etc and some what-just-happened convolutions of what-is-that topics?

No idea where Mahlers/all these PE is going, to be honest ><" Such a huge variance in difficulty, topics, topic convolutions..etc
Reply With Quote
  #235  
Old 01-18-2018, 02:47 PM
dkamka's Avatar
dkamka dkamka is offline
Member
CAS SOA
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Austin, Texas
Studying for Predictive Analytics& FAP
College: Roosevelt University Alumnus '10
Favorite beer: Jawa Juice
Posts: 449
Default

Mahler #5 Q13, is it at all likely the SOA would give such a hint
__________________
PM me if you’re in the Austin area
Introductory I: Economics | Accounting & FinanceFM | P
Introductory II: IFM | Mathematical Statistics
Actuarial: LTAM | STAM | SRM
Advanced: (e-Learning)FAP, (Project)Predictive Analytics
Seminar: APC
Reply With Quote
  #236  
Old 01-19-2018, 08:06 AM
Outsanity Outsanity is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
College: 1st year
Posts: 317
Default

Highly unlikely.
I'm getting really burned out by Mahlers, haha. Frequently miss simple questions due to certain logic not clicking into place. Probably doesn't help that I sometimes do the exams after work, when I'm exhausted and whatnot.
Reply With Quote
  #237  
Old 01-19-2018, 08:11 AM
dkamka's Avatar
dkamka dkamka is offline
Member
CAS SOA
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Austin, Texas
Studying for Predictive Analytics& FAP
College: Roosevelt University Alumnus '10
Favorite beer: Jawa Juice
Posts: 449
Default

yeah maybe try to review all passed exams before you sleep and wake up early. Do it before work when your fresh. It seems a little crazy at first, but after you get in the groove of it you will get used to it and be thankful you're more rested. It's an alternate time. going to bed early means you can get up earlier...

Seems like a theory but I've been working 3rd shift for over 8 years. It took me time to get used to but it's math . get your 8hrs sleep and that's all that matters not how early it is.

Did you do Mahler #10 yet? I started it and had to quit part way into it, so I could do it when I have more free time. the first couple questions seems very tough
__________________
PM me if you’re in the Austin area
Introductory I: Economics | Accounting & FinanceFM | P
Introductory II: IFM | Mathematical Statistics
Actuarial: LTAM | STAM | SRM
Advanced: (e-Learning)FAP, (Project)Predictive Analytics
Seminar: APC
Reply With Quote
  #238  
Old 01-19-2018, 08:23 AM
Outsanity Outsanity is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
College: 1st year
Posts: 317
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dkamka View Post
yeah maybe try to review all passed exams before you sleep and wake up early. Do it before work when your fresh. It seems a little crazy at first, but after you get in the groove of it you will get used to it and be thankful you're more rested. It's an alternate time. going to bed early means you can get up earlier...

Seems like a theory but I've been working 3rd shift for over 8 years. It took me time to get used to but it's math . get your 8hrs sleep and that's all that matters not how early it is.

Did you do Mahler #10 yet? I started it and had to quit part way into it, so I could do it when I have more free time. the first couple questions seems very tough
I get up at 5AM to fit in some studying before work. I sometimes go to bed around 8PM, but I have trouble falling asleep until 10 or 11. Pretty exhausting, haha.

I just finished Mahler #10, actually. 11/20. Skipped Q1, skipped Q3, Q4 took me half an hour and skipped Q6. So, yeah...Mahler #10 is definitely one of the most exhausting Mahlers so far (Not sure if it's because it's Friday morning or if it's actually the worse of the bunch, though)

Took a bite of Mahler #11... the first full-length Mahler. Thankfully, it's finally Friday and I can sleep a lot more tomorrow, haha.
Reply With Quote
  #239  
Old 01-19-2018, 09:01 AM
dkamka's Avatar
dkamka dkamka is offline
Member
CAS SOA
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Austin, Texas
Studying for Predictive Analytics& FAP
College: Roosevelt University Alumnus '10
Favorite beer: Jawa Juice
Posts: 449
Default

Here's an alternate idea for anyone taking Mahler shorter exams. If you want more time, then figure like this:

In theory, passing is 24/34, so if you choose to not answer 11, but simply guess which takes 5secs/question, then you have 11*6mins=66mins to redistribute those unanswered questions over the ones you choose to answer. Set a 2hr.+66min timer, so you have 8.75mins/question on the Mahler 20 Q PEs.
__________________
PM me if you’re in the Austin area
Introductory I: Economics | Accounting & FinanceFM | P
Introductory II: IFM | Mathematical Statistics
Actuarial: LTAM | STAM | SRM
Advanced: (e-Learning)FAP, (Project)Predictive Analytics
Seminar: APC
Reply With Quote
  #240  
Old 01-19-2018, 01:49 PM
ngiletto ngiletto is offline
Member
CAS SOA
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
College: Alumni - George Washington University
Posts: 73
Default

I have started throwing Mahler PEs between SOA 307 questions.

PE #1: 14/20 - Left 4 blank, guessed on 2
PE #2: 13/20 - Left 5 blank, guessed on 2
PE #3: 14/20 - Left 5 blank, guessed on 1

On the real exam and as I get closer, I will guess on everything that is blank. I also plan to go back and do the problems I left blank. I just wanted a clean gauge.
__________________
P FM C VE VF MAS-I
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:36 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.35555 seconds with 12 queries