Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Actuarial Discussion Forum > Careers - Employment
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions

Search Actuarial Jobs by State @ DWSimpson.com:
AL AK AR AZ CA CO CT DE FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA
ME MD MA MI MN MS MO MT NE NH NJ NM NY NV NC ND
OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA WV WI WY

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #21  
Old 04-02-2020, 04:19 PM
Loner's Avatar
Loner Loner is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: The Third Half
Posts: 46,492
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RichardS View Post
Claims are not the problem (for the most part. Although travel and BI have serious problems)

Lapse risk is going to become a significant risk in the next few months. Many people will stop paying their premiums.
Many people in the next few months will be doing BETTER than they were before, because they will be collecting unemployment PLUS $600/week, while their commuting and childcare expenses actually go down. I don't think you realize just how little the median US worker earns.
__________________
2012 AO Rap Battle Champion
Co-Legend of the Water Cooler(TM)
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 04-02-2020, 04:24 PM
RichardS RichardS is offline
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
College: LSE
Posts: 18
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loner View Post
Many people in the next few months will be doing BETTER than they were before, because they will be collecting unemployment PLUS $600/week, while their commuting and childcare expenses actually go down. I don't think you realize just how little the median US worker earns.
Disagree because it will take weeks before business loans come online.

And I fully expect a big chunk of them to dissapear into a vortex of cronyism.

Also, even with money in hand....where is it going to be spent?

Velocity of money will crater, leading to consumer demand cratering, which will then have a knock on impact.

I see unemployment in the US hitting 20% by May.
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 04-02-2020, 09:14 PM
Hello, My Baby's Avatar
Hello, My Baby Hello, My Baby is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 3,596
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RichardS View Post

I see unemployment in the US hitting 20% by May.
With 6.6 million jobless claims this week, that sounds optimistic
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Helena Lake View Post
Yes, well, that's partially the result of my robust education. I was exposed to far more than a narrow money-making selection of classes. The influence of art, literature, and other liberal arts makes it easier for me to write coherently in a format significantly longer than 140 characters. Additionally, I am able to use colorful terms that illustrate my ideas, words that exceed two syllables in length, and even proper punctuation (most of the time).
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 04-03-2020, 08:47 AM
lllj's Avatar
lllj lllj is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 5,401
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fallaway View Post
What I don't understand is why some companies are still hiring - don't they have any expectation that the budget is going to be tight? if they take new people in, soon they will have to find a way to cut the cost and the easiest way is to let people go...
Depends on what kind of company. Some companies have less exposure to equity markets, for certain lines of business the impact isn't obvious, etc. If a company needs staff and is confident about their business prospects, sure, hire. Especially in some P&C lines, who knows. Less auto accidents, but also less written premium. Maybe a hardening market for some commercial lines. Workers compensation... bad for those with exposure to healthcare, but in other industries people are working from home so less slips and falls? Cyber likely more claims.
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 04-03-2020, 08:52 AM
lllj's Avatar
lllj lllj is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 5,401
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RichardS View Post
Agree with this.

Life companies are nowhere near as exposed as P&C companies.

I can see layoffs in the future for P&C companies due to this Pandemic.
As someone who knows nothing about life insurance, care to explain this to me?

Does more deaths not equal more claims? Plus all the healthy people lapsing?
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 04-03-2020, 04:47 PM
fallaway fallaway is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Earth
Posts: 673
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by lllj View Post
As someone who knows nothing about life insurance, care to explain this to me?

Does more deaths not equal more claims? Plus all the healthy people lapsing?
A few things I can think of:
- Life companies often have annuity business which would hedge it's life products
- Life insurance contracts have much longer term than P&C, which is usually renewed annually and can be easily switched.
- Loss from lapse is offset to some degree by surrender charge
- In this unusual time, more people may want to buy insurance for additional protection
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 04-03-2020, 06:29 PM
IANAE IANAE is offline
Member
CAS AAA
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 277
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Klaymen View Post
I'm going to stop payment on my home insurance and hope it don't burn down.
no cover = no claims...no?
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 04-04-2020, 02:23 AM
tommie frazier tommie frazier is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Favorite beer: The kind with 2 e's
Posts: 23,571
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by IANAE View Post
no cover = no claims...no?
i believe that those claiming hardship will be given extended grace periods and non-cancellation protection while we are in this mess.
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 04-04-2020, 03:05 AM
Kalium Kalium is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 183
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by lllj View Post
As someone who knows nothing about life insurance, care to explain this to me?

Does more deaths not equal more claims? Plus all the healthy people lapsing?
Some additional factors. The crude data currently available on Covid-19 deaths isn't enough for a detailed analysis, but a lot are:
- in the elderly population, say 70+, who may not have life insurance (but may have annuities)
- people with underlying health conditions, so (as with the elderly) some will simply be acceleration of death by a few months rather than "extra" claims.

If a company has no annuity book I would still expect the overall impact to be adverse, as there will be new deaths amoing the insured young. But if it does, gains from annuities may more than offset mortality losses.
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 04-06-2020, 05:08 AM
IroningBoard IroningBoard is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 42
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalium View Post
Some additional factors. The crude data currently available on Covid-19 deaths isn't enough for a detailed analysis, but a lot are:
- in the elderly population, say 70+, who may not have life insurance (but may have annuities)
- people with underlying health conditions, so (as with the elderly) some will simply be acceleration of death by a few months rather than "extra" claims.

If a company has no annuity book I would still expect the overall impact to be adverse, as there will be new deaths amoing the insured young. But if it does, gains from annuities may more than offset mortality losses.
I donít think there will be a huge mortality/longevity impact on life insurers. The thing that worries me most is the long term economic impact. Think about the type of assets life insurers hold for their long term liabilities.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:47 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.31324 seconds with 11 queries