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  #631  
Old 03-04-2020, 09:18 AM
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Yeah.. I really wish these uppers were offered twice a year. Knowing that either way I won't have to study for the rest of the year after 55 more days though is helping to keep my motivation high.
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  #632  
Old 03-04-2020, 09:22 AM
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Yeah.. I really wish these uppers were offered twice a year. Knowing that either way I won't have to study for the rest of the year after 55 more days though is helping to keep my motivation high.
Haha yes that's what I try to remind myself at about that 90-120m mark while studying...
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  #633  
Old 03-05-2020, 01:34 AM
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Verrall, Meyers, and Shapland describe 3 different ways of dealing with negative incremental values of paid losses while fitting a model. Describe all 3 approaches.
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Old 03-05-2020, 01:46 PM
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An analyst is implementing a Bayesian model for the BF method as described by Verrall. He is using column factors derived from an ODP bootstrap and he adjusted residuals by development age to have equal variance using the method suggested by Taylor.

He is confused that upon inspection of the results, age 4 incremental losses have more weight given to the BF method than the CL method when compared to the previous age. He expected the incremental losses to have increased weight given to the chain ladder method as age increased.

Describe what could be causing this result.

assume he's just looking at a single row of data with a given BF ultimate estimate
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  #635  
Old 03-05-2020, 02:56 PM
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An analyst is implementing a Bayesian model for the BF method as described by Verrall. He is using column factors derived from an ODP bootstrap and he adjusted residuals by development age to have equal variance using the method suggested by Taylor.

He is confused that upon inspection of the results, age 4 incremental losses have more weight given to the BF method than the CL method when compared to the previous age. He expected the incremental losses to have increased weight given to the chain ladder method as age increased.

Describe what could be causing this result.

assume he's just looking at a single row of data with a given BF ultimate estimate
I want to say that age's gamma distribution prior has a higher beta value, meaning the variance of the prior is smaller and so more weight is given to the BF method.

I don't think coming up with and thinking about these synthesis questions is super helpful though until you've really mastered the basics. And I'm still far from that at the moment..
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  #636  
Old 03-05-2020, 03:41 PM
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I want to say that age's gamma distribution prior has a higher beta value, meaning the variance of the prior is smaller and so more weight is given to the BF method.

I don't think coming up with and thinking about these synthesis questions is super helpful though until you've really mastered the basics. And I'm still far from that at the moment..
for a single row of data, isn't that beta going to be constant? my intended solution was that since the scale parameter varies by age due to the adjustment, it is larger for that development period than the previous and produced a lower credibility estimate. I'm assuming that the scale parameter in the credibility factor of Verrall could vary instead of remaining constant in the formula

I find thinking of these connections helps me remember the material as I read through the syllabus, I know that it's extremely unlikely for them to ask any specific question I come up with, I'm just trying to enhance my understanding
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  #637  
Old 03-05-2020, 03:53 PM
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I now forecast there is 51.9% chance this sitting will postpone/cancel.
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  #638  
Old 03-05-2020, 03:54 PM
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I now forecast there is 51.9% chance this sitting will postpone/cancel.
wow, how many spy puts you got dawg? you holding 250 4/28?
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  #639  
Old 03-05-2020, 03:54 PM
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In fact I was going to be credentialed at the spring meeting. It's not looking too good now
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  #640  
Old 03-05-2020, 03:55 PM
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wow, how many spy puts you got dawg? you holding 250 4/28?
WSB???
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