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#643




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#644




I have a 2% interest savings account and I'm just pouring money into it for the time being. After the market drops quite a bit more I'll probably move it.

#646




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#647




the ODP model defined by Verrall in the stochastic BF appears to be the same definition as the ODP cross classified from Taylor. The difference appears to be that Verrall's uses MCMC to solve for parameters, which means theorem 3.2 in Taylor may not apply, I think? I am wondering if Verrall's MCMC model with all improper priors would be equivalent to the MLE estimates, in which case they would equal chain ladder by Theorem 3.2?
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#648




there are some conflicting messages regarding variability of the reserve. On one hand, Clark says lower variability is better and advocates that cape cod is better for its lower parameter variance. On the other hand, Meyer's demonstrates that models with lower variance did not validate on the Cas loss database and pursues efforts to increase the variability of his estimates, the exact opposite of what Clark was trying to do.
am I missing something or are they really this contradictory?
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#649




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I'm still not at the point where I'm really confident in the material yet though, so I could be wrong. 
#650




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