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  #691  
Old 03-12-2020, 05:08 PM
SkolChicago SkolChicago is offline
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There’s no example of the weighted least squares in Venter other than p = q = 1. I can’t wrap my head around how the formulas would change for h(w) and f(d). Do you guys think that’s testable?
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  #692  
Old 03-13-2020, 12:11 AM
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Thereís no example of the weighted least squares in Venter other than p = q = 1. I canít wrap my head around how the formulas would change for h(w) and f(d). Do you guys think thatís testable?
your best bet is to derive it from principles like in this link

http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actu...333023&page=96
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  #693  
Old 03-13-2020, 02:29 AM
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"Yes"

CF's manual assumes you have read the source material for every paper, actually. They flow a lot better if you have.

It's not a bad read because of all the formatting and images taking up space. I'd give special attention to the lists, section headers, and images and make sure you understand them.
Thanks!
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  #694  
Old 03-13-2020, 02:31 AM
niiiiiicky niiiiiicky is offline
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I'd be happy if they could postpone the exam, given that I'm seriously behind the schedule. Also, the news nowadays is a bit distracting.
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  #695  
Old 03-13-2020, 07:32 AM
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Also, the news nowadays is a bit distracting.

You mean the variance of chain ladder reserves isn't sufficiently interesting enough to take your mind off the apocalypse?
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  #696  
Old 03-13-2020, 10:44 AM
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You mean the variance of chain ladder reserves isn't sufficiently interesting enough to take your mind off the apocalypse?
It actually helps by making Brehm seem more interesting and relevant though.
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  #697  
Old 03-13-2020, 10:57 AM
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It actually helps by making Brehm seem more interesting and relevant though.
I was thinking last night about how this is a stress test of a low probability event
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  #698  
Old 03-13-2020, 12:03 PM
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My team's now doing WFH. I guess it'll be easier to make sure I get my study hours in. I'm looking to finish up Brehm either today or tomorrow. Then time to fill in the details and review.
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  #699  
Old 03-13-2020, 01:48 PM
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I agree, it isn't just the corona news, but also the stock market crashs, Trudeau's wife, TP shopping frenzy, honestly it's a little information overload atm
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  #700  
Old 03-14-2020, 09:56 AM
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In Venter’s paper, what’s the difference between chain ladder and additive chain ladder other than the way it’s presented? I figured they would produce the same results, but I’m confused by the following CF passage:

-Chain-ladder method assumes that future development for an AY will be proportional to losses emerged to date.
-BF methods take expected emergence in each period to be a percentage of ultimate losses
-Cape Cod and additive chain-ladder models assume that years showing low losses or high losses to date will have the same expected future dollar development (because they assume a constant h over all years)
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