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View Poll Results: where will US stock markets bottom out?
-30-40% | 2,030-2,370 | early 2015 9 24.32%
-40-50% | 1,690-2,030 | mid-2013 20 54.05%
-50-60% | 1,355-1,690 | mid-2012 7 18.92%
-60-70% | 1,015-1,355 | late 2009 1 2.70%
>-70% | below 1,015 0 0%
Voters: 37. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 03-22-2020, 06:54 AM
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Default COVID-19: where will US stock markets bottom?

where do you think US stock markets will bottom out? i'm using the S&P 500 as a reference. there is a separate poll for guessing when the bottom will be.

at market close on march 21, SPX was at 2,305

poll option format:

% drop from feb 2020 peak | SPX range | last time lower end of range was observed
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Old 03-22-2020, 08:38 AM
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0?
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Old 03-23-2020, 05:21 PM
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It disgusts me how little real thought I put into the Corona Virus impact on the USA/Global GDP.
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Old 03-23-2020, 05:27 PM
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Old 03-23-2020, 05:48 PM
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Originally Posted by lulzEMH View Post
It disgusts me how little real thought I put into the Corona Virus impact on the USA/Global GDP.
Me too. Even when it was evident, I wasn't sure I wanted to short obvious shorts, because they were already down 20%. D'oh.
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Old 03-23-2020, 09:28 PM
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Me too. Even when it was evident, I wasn't sure I wanted to short obvious shorts, because they were already down 20%. D'oh.
Yeah, I bought SPY and EEM puts in early Feb for march, april, may, jun around 300 strikes. Then sold them all by the time the market was down 5%. Then I spent my time arguing with friends who "thought this was the flu" and who thought that there wouldn't be shut downs, or that it wasn't a problem in the USA (because they didn't know how little testing we were doing), while systematically SHORTING puts for a few days.

I spent almost no time looking at prior GDP drops/stock drop, thought on which companies I should short (unlike 2008). Until we were down about 15% and then I started trying to quantifying things.

Dumb and disapointed..
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Old 03-23-2020, 10:39 PM
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I watched China's numbers closely and saw them decreasing, decided it wouldn't be an issue. Should have been obvious lockdowns would spread.

I do think threat of the virus has been overblown and we will in a few weeks realise it's less dangerous than initial indications. Enough to overwhelm the system this first wave, so action is needed, but also will show no further shut downs are needed. So, based on that, I think we bottom at most 20% lower than here, and I suspect not that low.
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Old 03-24-2020, 12:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElDucky View Post
I watched China's numbers closely and saw them decreasing, decided it wouldn't be an issue. Should have been obvious lockdowns would spread.

I do think threat of the virus has been overblown and we will in a few weeks realise it's less dangerous than initial indications. Enough to overwhelm the system this first wave, so action is needed, but also will show no further shut downs are needed. So, based on that, I think we bottom at most 20% lower than here, and I suspect not that low.
You seem to be describing the planned response when a virus escapes control (e.g. community spread). Current phase is called the hammer. The follow-up phase is called the dance.
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Old 03-24-2020, 01:20 AM
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There seems to be great disparity on how long the initial lockdown has to last, and the fact that subsequent lockdowns will be required. From what I'm seeing, it will be the less awful end of both, but that's far from certain.
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Old 03-24-2020, 02:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lulzEMH View Post
Yeah, I bought SPY and EEM puts in early Feb for march, april, may, jun around 300 strikes. Then sold them all by the time the market was down 5%. Then I spent my time arguing with friends who "thought this was the flu" and who thought that there wouldn't be shut downs, or that it wasn't a problem in the USA (because they didn't know how little testing we were doing), while systematically SHORTING puts for a few days.

I spent almost no time looking at prior GDP drops/stock drop, thought on which companies I should short (unlike 2008). Until we were down about 15% and then I started trying to quantifying things.

Dumb and disapointed..
well, there should be some good opportunities on the way back up too
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